ATLANTA — Over the past two years, many students who’ve ridden the bus to Woodland High School in Stockbridge have often missed their first period class because there weren’t enough bus drivers. That shortage forced existing drivers to double up on routes, making kids late to school.
Being habitually late hurt those high schoolers. Many students wound up getting lower grades or failing key academic classes such as math, language arts and social sciences, said Heather Franks, a food and nutrition teacher at Woodland.
But if Gov. Brian Kemp’s State of the State and Eggs & Issues speeches this week are to be believed, help may be on the way.
Kemp wants to pump $205 million into student transportation, based on his budgetary wishlist unveiled this week during his State of the State address. That essentially doubles the state’s current commitment to busing operations.
Overall, the governor’s proposal for the amended fiscal year 2024 and FY 2025 budgets doubles-down on his commitment to Georgia’s children, promising $1.4 billion in additional funding for kids in kindergarten through 12th grade. That includes two pay raises for teachers — $1,000 in FY 2024, and $2,500 in FY 2025 — and $20 million for 227 new school buses. Kemp’s full budget was released Thursday after his speech.
“That’s really promising to hear,” said Franks, who said she was most excited about the funding for school transportation. “It’s going to be a whole new experience, to actually be able to start a class on time. That will alleviate a lot of stress on the kids, to be able to get to school on time and not have to play catch-up constantly.”
During Thursday’s address, Kemp also proposed new investment in school security funding. His budget proposal calls for $104 million to go straight to school districts to beef up school safety. Georgia had 64 school shootings in 2023, the 10th-highest number of school shootings in the nation.
Early childhood education would also get an infusion of new state funding in 2025, with pre-K teachers and assistant teachers pay increases, and $11 million to reduce pre-K class sizes to 20 students from 22.
“These are real investments that will make a big difference for schools and for our pre-K system,” said Stephen Owens, education policy analyst for the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, noting that many of the items in Kemp’s 2025 budget are increases to the education funding formula and the base budget, which makes them ongoing budgetary commitments.
“This will do real good in schools, to have these funds baked into the budget,” said Owens, adding that the “huge jump” in the formula funding will allow school districts “to plan on not only to replace school buses, pay bus drivers and bus monitors a better wage, and make sure that we have safer buses on the road, [but] … they can recommit the funds that they’ve been taking from other areas of school to support instruction in other ways.” This more permanent education funding is, he said, “very helpful compared to the way that kind of one-time grants have been provided in the past.”
The governor recommended $400 million in K-12 education funding be added to the amended fiscal year 2024 budget. He’s also seeking $1 billion for education for the FY 2025 K-12 budget, which would then total $13.2 billion. K-12 and higher education combined would get nearly $19 billion, once again making education the largest part of the state government budget.
All told, Kemp proposed adding $5.1 billion to the amended 2024 budget, which would increase it to $37.5 billion from $32.4 billion, with $2 billion of that money coming from the state’s $16 billion surplus, and much of the rest coming from projected general fund revenues. The 2024 fiscal year in Georgia ends on June 30.
Funding for many one-time spending initiatives or projects is allotted in the amended 2024 budget, state budget officials said. Proposals include $1.5 billion for transportation projects to more efficiently move commuters and freight, $250 million for water and sewer projects, $500 million for the employee retirement system, $50 million for a new medical school at the University of Georgia, and $50 million for workforce housing in rural communities.
Kemp also recommended a FY 2025 budget of $34.4 billion, a $3.6 billion increase over the base budget of FY 2024, also based on projected general fund revenues, which come primarily from tax revenue. The 2025 fiscal year begins July 1, 2024.
Kemp’s historic and ambitious budget proposal may be a glimpse into other ambitions for the 60-year-old Republican.
Angling for 1600 Pennsylvania Ave?
In his last term as governor, Kemp appears to be putting in place some permanent fiscal fixtures such as more money for education and big-ticket infrastructure projects, boosting pay for state workers, public safety, mental health, and other areas he’s been most passionate about. Quietly leaving his stamp and cementing his legacy.
He also may be setting the stage for higher political ambitions, some political observers say.
While it’s still early to gauge Kemp’s political aspirations beyond the governor’s mansion, some say what Kemp does in his final term as governor could be a clue. Kemp’s last term as governor could be viewed as a dress rehearsal for higher political ambitions.
“He’ll be leaving [office] which would be a launching platform,” Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political science professor, told State Affairs. “As governor, you can generate attention very easily.”
In his State of the State address, Kemp frequently knocked Washington and contrasted the missteps of the federal government with the conservative efficiency and populist priorities that drive how his Georgia is governed.
“Congress has become synonymous with runaway spending, bloated budgets, job-killing regulations, gridlock and partisanship, and elected representatives in both parties who are more interested in getting famous on cable news than delivering results for the American people,” Kemp said. “But the good news is that here in Georgia, we’ve chosen a different path. Because we realize that the success of our state does not rely on the actions of government, but on the prosperity of our people.”
Sen. Sonya Halpern, D-Atlanta, detected a note of “partisan” rancor in Kemp’s speech. “I don’t know if I’ve heard him say that [before]. He obviously referenced the federal government multiple times.”
If Kemp’s goal is the presidency, Bullock said, Kemp could possibly take a page from another Georgia politician who once served as governor.
“He could do like Jimmy Carter. Once you’re out of the governorship, you can be a full-time candidate. You don’t have to worry about coming back to your state to deal with crises.”
Bullock, who has been tracking Georgia politics for more than 50 years, said Kemp is “playing it very intelligently.”
“For a Republican who is not infatuated with Donald Trump, Brian Kemp looks really good,” Bullock said. “On the other hand, he has not ever directly gone after Trump. He has not been in a [former New Jersey governor] Chris Christie kind of role.
“What Kemp has done is to chart a middle course,” Bullock said. “He’s not a cheerleader like [Florida governor] Ron DeSantis has been. He [Kemp] won by a substantial margin in 2022. So it works out well for him here in Georgia.”
Time will tell.
“Who knows what the state of the [national] Republican Party will be in another four years, whether it’ll still be in the pocket of Donald Trump,” Bullock said. “In which case, Brian would have a hard time. But if the party has moved on beyond that, especially if the Trump brand had become tarnished by that point, then that tarnish would not affect Kemp.
“He’s not made any decisions publicly. So he’s closing no doors, whether it be to run for the Senate in two years or the presidency in four,” Bullock said.
Throughout his six years as governor, Kemp has taken a low-key, deliberate, and self-professed conservative approach to running Georgia. When it comes to speeches, like Thursday’s State of the State address, political observers say he sticks to the script; never ad-libbing.
“Kemp’s got an incredible message discipline,” Republican strategist Brian Robinson told State Affairs. “It’s hard to think of a time where loose lips have caused him harm or a quote has been thrown back in his face. He’s not someone who jumps at every opportunity to be on TV. He’s not someone who is followed by media scrum where they’re shouting questions at him. He’s shown a lot of success in sticking to a tight message.”
For instance Robinson said, when Kemp gives a major speech,” he often has lines in there that you could see appearing in a future TV ad or video in a primary campaign. And you don’t see him saying things that would be used against him in a primary campaign in the future.”
“He’s signaling that he’s keeping his options open for the next steps,” said Robinson, who served as communications director for former Gov. Nathan Deal. Robinson also once worked on Capitol Hill for the Georgia delegation. He is a regular on the Political Breakfast podcast and a consultant whose clients include politicians.
“Second-term governors who plan to ride off into the sunset afterwards normally — it was really true for Gov. Deal — let down their guard on partisan posturing,” Robinson said. “They worry a little bit less about how their base is going to respond.”
Robinson said Kemp is “ being very careful in what he says and what he’s videoed saying, which makes sense.” At the same time, Robinson added, “ I do think what he’s willing to sign that gets to his desk is probably a little broader than it would have been in a first term.”
‘Strategic Investments’
In addition to bolstering education, Kemp’s budgetary priorities include health care, public safety and more workforce housing in rural communities and public safety.
The 2025 budget, which will begin July 1, includes some other ongoing “strategic investments,” budget officials said.
All state employees will receive a 4% cost of living increase in FY2025. Child protection workers will receive $3,000 salary increases, while nurse managers and compliance specialists at the Department of Community Health will get $2,000 raises. The Department of Juvenile Justice will get two new facilities, and the Georgia Bureau of Investigation will receive funding for a new gang task force in Columbus, and 21 new crime lab positions.
Kemp told legislators he intends to make strategic spends on government services while continuing to hack away at taxes.
“Instead of expanding the size and scope of government, we’re putting state dollars to work in targeted, efficient ways to recruit, retain, and thank employees in vital roles from corrections officers to case workers,” Kemp said.
Last month, Kemp said he and other top Republicans — Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and House Speaker Jon Burns — intend to see a bill introduced that would accelerate cuts in the tax rate. Kemp followed through on that priority on Thursday.
“With your support, I look forward to signing legislation that decreases our state income tax to 5.39% starting this year,” he said. That would mean a $3 billion savings for Georgia taxpayers over the next decade, Kemp noted.
Two years ago, the state signed into law the Mental Health Parity Act, which led to the launch last year of the state’s 9-8-8 crisis hotline campaign run by the state’s Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Disabilities. The agency’s commissioner Kevin Tanner requested more funding to increase the number of behavioral health crisis beds and to address severe behavioral health workforce shortages.
The governor’s budget proposal calls for an increase of $205 million for the department and other entities that address mental health, Kemp said. The new money would allow Behavioral Health and Developmental Disabilities to expand services for those struggling with mental illness by funding a new behavioral crisis center, increasing operational funding for three crisis centers already in development and creating 500 new slots in the program for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
If passed, the state will be spending $1.6 billion on mental health, “more than ever before ,” Kemp said.
Kemp also threw his support behind the controversial Atlanta Public Safety Training Center, also known as Cop City. The complex has drawn criticism from activists who say it will militarize police and endanger communities.
Kemp put money behind that support. His budget proposal would give $3,000 raises to state patrol officers, corrections officers and other law enforcement personnel in 2025.
Kemp’s proposal also calls for the Department of Correction to get $145 million in the amended 2024 budget for facility upkeep, recruiting and retention initiatives,as well as security and technology initiatives.
What Kemp didn’t address: Medicaid expansion
Kemp’s address drew partisan praise and criticism from Democrats who said he ignored a critical issue: Medicaid expansion.
“What we have isn’t really a surplus,” said Sen. Gloria Butler, the Senate minority leader, just after Kemp’s address. “What we have is a disinvestment. … For four consecutive years, Georgia’s budget has fallen short of the state’s capacity to meet the needs of the people, as conditions across state government have worsened and vast needs continue to go unmet.”
Butler is among those who sees a political agenda in Kemp’s fiscal plans.
“There’s a housing shortage across the state,” she said. “But our surplus wasn’t used to help our most vulnerable citizens find a decent place to live. He didn’t use this surplus to fully expand Medicaid, which would have given over 500,000 Georgians the chance to go to a doctor — their own doctor; an emergency room when they’re sick, without being afraid that a medical bill would keep them from being able to pay their fair rent or mortgage, deciding whether they want to get the medicine or eat. Medicaid expansion would have created 50,000 jobs and $6 billion in economic growth.
“That would be putting people over politics. The government could have invested in Georgia’s future; he said no. He said no to investing, and making it just a little bit easier for Georgians to just make it through the day. Instead, he used this money to make short-term investments in Republican political success.”
Republican Sen. Kay Kirkpatrick called Kemp’s speech “very optimistic.”
“He highlighted many of the positive things we’ve done in conjunction with him such as the additional funding for public safety and the bills we passed on human trafficking,” she said. “I was happy he emphasized health care and public safety. I was very pleased with the speech.”
Rep. Becky Evans, D-Atlanta, said she was happy to see substantial new funding for school security and law enforcement. “But if their goal is public safety, then we’ve got to do something to address gun violence in our state,” she said. “ I believe in passing these security measures, but we also need to pass some safe gun ownership laws.”
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