CARMEL, Ind. — On the first day of early voting, House Democrat Leader Phil GiaQuinta wasn’t knocking on doors where he lives in Fort Wayne. Instead, he was 100 miles away — in Carmel.

Across the state political insiders are watching Carmel to see what happens in the competitive, and at times messy, race for mayor between Republican Sue Finkam and Democrat Miles Nelson. 

GiaQuinta often helps other candidates, but his presence in the northern Indianapolis suburb also signifies that it’s a race to watch, one with implications reaching far beyond who sits in the mayor’s office for the next four years.

The outcome of the race for mayor could provide a window into what will play out in the most competitive Indiana Statehouse races in 2024 — two of which overlap with Carmel. If Democrats are going to eventually pick away at the Republican supermajority in the Statehouse, the conventional wisdom is the path to victory runs through Hamilton County.

Some recent election results point to a potential in for Democrats, but more often than not Democrats have gotten their hopes up only to watch their candidates lose in the wealthy suburban county. Political scientists still consider it a Republican county.

For Democrats, a victory in the Carmel mayoral election would mean more momentum in a state where Democratic wins are few and far between, momentum they can capitalize on in 2024 Statehouse elections. For Republicans, winning would be just more affirmation that the GOP is still in control. 

“Hamilton County feels like an important bellwether,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a University of Indianapolis political science professor. “It’s a proving ground of sorts to see: Could a Democrat control a city that has been under Republican dominance for several decades?”

Statehouse candidates and their campaign staff will be watching. 

So far, three House Republicans in Hamilton County have announced they won’t be running for reelection in 2024: Carmel Reps. Jerry Torr and Donna Schaibley, plus Noblesville Rep. Chuck Goodrich. (Goodrich is running for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District instead). It’s an unusually high number of retirements for the county, giving Republicans and Democrats alike a blank slate when campaigning. 

The most competitive will likely be Torr’s House District 39, which extends from the northeast side of Carmel into Westfield. 

A slow shift

Republicans have handily won control of Hamilton County for decades. Even now, every mayor in the county and every county government leader is a Republican, and only three of the 47 city or town council members throughout the county are Democrats. 

Still, for the last half decade Democrats have warned the southern half of the county, specifically Carmel, is shifting due in part to increasing diversity. But the change is happening slowly.

In 2019, three Democrats  won city council seats in Hamilton County for the first time in recent memory. Then in 2020, Democratic President Joe Biden beat Trump by 4 percentage points in Carmel. Two years later Democratic Secretary of State candidate Destiny Wells won Carmel by 6 percentage points, despite losing the state.

How much Biden’s and Wells’ performances actually show about Carmel’s political slide isn’t entirely clear. Trump is a unique candidate that underperformed in large suburban areas in 2020.

“It’s not just Biden winning in Carmel in 2020, it was Donald Trump losing in Carmel in 2020,” said Merrifield Wilson, the political science professor. “If it was Joe Biden versus any other Republican candidate, would you have had Democratic support from this area?”

Likewise, the secretary of state race was atypical. Secretary of State Diego Morales ran a campaign mired in controversy, accused by two women of sexual assault. He strongly denied those allegations. 

Of course, the Democrats have lost a lot, too. Among the most devastating blows came in 2020 when Republican Victoria Spartz beat out Democrat Christina Hale in the 5th Congressional District race. 

That means the Carmel mayor’s race, with its two uncontroversial and by most metrics moderate candidates, could be the ultimate test of the theory that Carmel is turning more blue.

 “The case was made that those guys were extremists during the election,” Finkam, the Republican candidate for mayor, told State Affairs, “and any one who knows me or has any kind of understanding of my record knows that I’m not that, so that’s why it doesn’t give me concern.”

Perhaps nothing shows the importance of the race to Democrats more than this: Multiple Democratic lawmakers and candidates have helped knock on voters’ doors for Nelson, the Democratic nominee for mayor, and the other seven Democrats running for city council. 

“People aren’t looking for an overturn and a huge blue wave,” Nelson told State Affairs. “I think they’re just looking for balance, giving people a choice.”

Regardless of which candidate wins the race, there could be a lesson for 2024 candidates in the Statehouse. 

House District 39 in Carmel

Torr’s open seat in Carmel and Westfield is arguably the Democrats’ best shot at flipping a seat in the 2024 Statehouse election, past election results show. Wells won the district in 2022, plus the margin of victory for Torr, an influential high-ranking Republican, has shrunk over time. 

In 2022, veteran Matt McNally, a Democrat, ran against Torr, who had represented the district since 1996. Torr won, but by less than 5 percentage points despite outspending McNally. 

McNally is running again in 2024, but with Torr’s retirement it’s now an open district. That changes the dynamics, said Andrew Downs, emeritus associate professor of political science at Purdue University Fort Wayne.

“Open seat races are a better indicator of what’s possible in a community than a race with an incumbent in it,” Downs said. “You can figure out what the real floor of the party is.” 

The outcome of this race could simply hinge on who decides to run. Republican Danny Lopez, a communications executive for the Pacers, has already amassed a long list of influential supporters for his race, including former U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks, former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats and IBJ Media CEO Nate Feltman. That should make fundraising easy for Lopez, making him a formidable opponent in both the primary and the general election. 

So far, Lopez doesn’t appear to be wading much into social issues, but others more focused on concepts such as abortion or gender identity could still enter the race. 

“I want to work on infrastructure and workforce and education and economic development,” Lopez told State Affairs. “If you’ve got a passion for Carmel and Westfield and want to see the community continue to grow and thrive, then I want you to be part of this campaign regardless of what your [political] stripes are.”

And of course, the top of the ticket could impact what happens further down the ballot with governor, a U.S. Senate seat and president on the ballot. 

Still, the Carmel race could provide some clues as to how challenging it would be for Democrats to flip the House district. It also could foreshadow or even inform some of the tactics the General Assembly candidates use to win. 

For example, both of the Republicans Finkam and Lopez already use similar language to describe the Democrats. 

“They’re going to try to distract, they’re going to try to drive divisive wedge issues, because if you look at whose driven the county, and the state frankly, forward in the last 20 years, taken us from where we were to one of the best places in the country to live and work, it’s been Republican leadership,” Lopez said. “So if you’re running on the issues, and you’re a Democrat you’re going to lose.”

Meanwhile, Finkam has accused Nelson of offering distractions by talking about national and social issues that she said don’t apply to the race.

The biggest point of contention so far in that race centers around the Hamilton County Moms for Liberty decision to include a Hitler quote in a newsletter. Finkam has condemned the use of the quote, but when Nelson asked her during the debate to denounce the group in its entirety, Finkam stood in silence, flipping through her binder. (She later said she was trying to respect the debate rules and wait her turn to speak, and had already condemned the quote multiple times). 

Likewise, both the Democrats McNally and Nelson have focused messaging at least in part on K-12 education. For Nelson, that’s meant emphasizing that the mayor should have a role in defending the local school from political attacks. For McNally, that means highlighting what he sees as the need to dedicate more money to traditional public schools rather than charter schools. 

“When the state is focusing more on social issues rather than economic issues, that affects people,” McNally told State Affairs. “We need to get away from some of that and move towards programs that benefit schools. People come here because of the great public schools.”

Other Hamilton County Statehouse races to watch

Democrats are eyeing the other two open seats as well: Schaibley’s district containing the west side of Carmel and portions of Westfield and Boone County, and Goodrich’s primarily Noblesville-based district. 

A Democratic win seems unlikely in either in 2024. Schaibley won her reelection bid by more than 14 percentage points in 2022 and Democrats didn’t field a candidate against Goodrich that year.

Perhaps another one of the most competitive Statehouse races in 2024 could put Democrats on defense: House District 32, represented by Rep. Victoria Garcia Wilburn. The district contains portions of Carmel and Fishers, dipping slightly into Marion County. 

Garcia Wilburn lost by 2 percentage points in Hamilton County in 2022, but was still able to narrowly squeak out a win by doubling the votes of her opponent in Marion County. 

She declined to directly comment on her upcoming campaign while knocking on doors for Nelson with GiaQuinta. 

“I’m really out for Miles,” she said. “I’m not thinking of myself right now.”

The way GiaQuinta sees it, it’s all about momentum. 

While knocking on doors in Carmel, GiaQuinta walked past a car donning a sticker with the name of Sen. J.D. Ford, the first Democrat to represent a portion of Hamilton County in recent memory. Ford didn’t win the county itself when he ran for office, but GiaQuinta said that campaign laid the groundwork for Wilburn’s campaign, which helped lay the groundwork for the campaign for mayor.

Each competitive election cycle generates more data about which voters are receptive to the party’s messaging. 

“The Ds have, some would say, accepted the fact that Hamilton County is not going to change in one election,” Downs said. “Even if the Ds don’t win a single seat in Carmel in any way, shape or form, it’s still laying the groundwork for next year.”

What’s next?

The municipal election is Nov. 7, but early voting has already started. You can check your election day voting location on the Indiana voter portal website. 

Contact Kaitlin Lange on X @kaitlin_lange or email her at [email protected]. 

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