SOUTH BEND – Flowers of summer bloom in Chicago’s Grant Park, vivid colors along South Michigan Avenue, across from a Hilton hotel. Inside the hotel’s entrance, a broad, carpeted stairway leads to the busy mezzanine.
It’s the same as it looked in the August of the 1968 Democratic National Convention.
But what happened was so different then. That was the location of violent confrontations during a chaotic, divisive convention, with differences over the war in Vietnam leading to battles in the streets.
I went back to walk through Grant Park, to go into the Hilton, to prepare for writing now about the 1968 convention I covered then.
Sitting on that carpeted stairway, I looked down on where about 200 “McCarthy kids,” young supporters of Sen. Eugene McCarthy, a Vietnam War opponent, were sitting back then. They were disillusioned, bitter, some crying, during early morning hours after the convention nominated Vice President Hubert Humphrey, not McCarthy, for president.
“You killed the party!” they jeered at Humphrey delegates returning to the hotel where Humphrey was staying.
Killing the party? Delegates? Protesters? Chicago police, with indiscriminate club-swinging? It all combined, with the nation watching divisiveness on the convention floor and violence in the streets, to help elect Richard Nixon that fall.
A high school student, there to support McCarthy, there for an experience in democracy, instead experienced terror. In a tear-choked plea, he asked two reporters from Indiana for help.
He was trapped there by Chicago police, the terrified kid said, and cops would club and arrest him once the lobby was clear of the few remaining reporters and delegates. He had tried to leave. Police ordered him back into the lobby.
We calmed him and told him that only the front entrance was blocked. He could leave by the 8th Street side doors.
He escaped from a trap that really had not existed.
Others were “trapped” in believing untrue tales that stoked anger in the streets. Protesters believed untrue rumors that police had slaughtered dozens of peaceful demonstrators. So, some responded by throwing objects at the cops. Police, some using clubs too freely against anyone in the crowds, were reacting to untrue rumors that dozens of fellow officers had been blinded or shot by snipers.
But confrontations were violent. People were injured. The Democratic Party was seriously injured. So was the image of Chicago.
Police lined the sidewalk in front of the Hilton the day after violence there. Illinois National Guard troops, with bayonets fixed, rifles ready and machine guns mounted on jeeps, lined Michigan Avenue to stop encroachment of demonstrators, including “Yippies” more interested in disruption than in the nomination.
Edging around the police and Guard lines that next day, I got into Grant Park. Throngs of angry protesters remained, some injured, some hurling objects at troops and cops.
Since reporters weren’t welcomed by either police or protesters, I removed my jacket, tie and press credentials. I sat on the ground, looking around Grant Park. Not to see the flowers, many now trampled, but to see what might happen next.
Scary? Sort of. But rewarding, being there for one of the most persuasive speeches I ever heard.
It was impossible to take notes. Writing or even having a notebook wasn’t advisable in that seething atmosphere. But I couldn’t forget the message, never to be reported in national news. No national reporter was there.
Julian Bond, a young civil rights leader, a founder of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee, spoke to an angry, milling audience. Some were throwing rocks. They would at least quiet down to hear Bond.
“Don’t lash out blindly at blue uniforms or brown uniforms,” Bond urged. “You don’t know the people in those uniforms. You may lash out at somebody in a uniform who dislikes the war just as much as you do.”
Not all cops swung clubs at protesters’ heads, he said. There were good cops and bad cops, all wearing the same uniform but not all the same.
Stone throwing stopped. At least there at that time.
Many cops were professional, ignoring taunts and protecting delegates, students and Chicago residents amid the chaos.
Also, there were cops like those looking on approvingly at violence by a gang near the Hilton entrance. The toughs were shouting “Wallace!” and beating up any long-haired suspected protester wandering into the area. They knocked down a TV cameraman, sending the camera crashing.
A cop shouted at the cameraman: “Get the hell out of here!”
There will be protests at this convention in Chicago — noisy, perhaps disruptive. But it will be nothing like the conflicts of 1968 in Grant Park or at the Hilton.
Nothing at all like that.
Jack Colwell has covered Indiana politics for over five decades for the South Bend Tribune. Email him at [email protected].
“We call them ‘bore and ignore contractors’ because they just bore and ignore the problems.” —Minden Mayor Nick Cox, on contractors he said are acting carelessly while installing broadband infrastructure, in The Illuminator
“No one’s trying to get your secret sauce information.” —Rep. Daryl Deshotel, regarding telecom concerns about the security of their infrastructure, in The Illuminator
“If you hear it from me, you print it. If not, you print whatever you want.” —Gordon Dove, chair of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, on word of a potential settlement over the future of the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion, to NOLA.com
“Housing prices just went bananas the last four years.” —Lafayette Parish Assessor Conrad Comeaux, about rising assessments, in The Advocate
“Why do one? Let’s go ahead and do five.” —Raising Cane’s founder Todd Graves, on his plans to donate $500,000 to help fund artificial reefs, to NOLA.com
“One of my officers actually found soup in his mailbox a few days ago. And another neighbor had Cheerios.” —Central Police Chief Roger Corcoran on odd items residents have been finding in their mailboxes over the past few days, such as dead fish and SpaghettiOs, reported by WBRZ
On today’s date in 1988, the Republican National Convention began in New Orleans.
Then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, in accepting the party’s nomination, provided the convention’s most memorable moment, delivering the most famous (some would say infamous) quote of the election.
“My opponent won’t rule out raising taxes, but I will, and the Congress will push me to raise taxes, and I’ll say no, and they’ll push, and I’ll say no, and they’ll push again, and I’ll say to them, ‘Read my lips: no new taxes,’” Bush said.
It was a line that Bush repeated throughout the campaign, and it may have won him the election over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. But when faced with the reality of the federal budget and growing deficits, it was a promise he found he couldn’t keep.
“If Bush wins, he will regret this. He can’t possibly keep this promise,” Howard Gleckman, who covered the speech for Business Week, recalls thinking.
The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990 that Bush signed raised many taxes, including the top individual income tax rate, the individual alternative minimum tax rate, and payroll taxes. TV host David Letterman joked that Bush’s new catchphrase should be “Read my lips: I was lying.”
Roger Ailes, who went on to become CEO of Fox News, was Bush’s media consultant. Ailes explained to Time magazine that, when Dukakis said he would raise taxes only as a last resort, he gave Bush an opening.
“When a guy like Dukakis says what he says, no matter how responsible it may be, the people take it to mean that he’ll raise taxes as a first resort,” Ailes said. “What you have to say to get on top of an issue like taxes is that you’d rather see your kids burned in the street than raise them. It wasn’t the easiest case to make to Bush, but he understood the stakes. We did what we had to do.’’
Republicans chose New Orleans in part because of the availability of hotel rooms and the size of the Superdome venue. The location also reflected the GOP’s desire to make further inroads in the South.
The convention’s opening night was distinguished by a speech from outgoing President Ronald Reagan. The Gipper’s enduring popularity likely had a lot to do with his vice president’s election victory.
As the convention began, Bush’s running mate remained a mystery. He would select then-U.S. Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana.
Pat Buchanan went after Bush for hiking taxes during the 1992 Republican primaries, and the Bush-Quayle ticket would go on to lose reelection to then-Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas. Clinton’s campaign made sure voters remembered the broken promise of “read my lips.”
— LAWMAKERS NAMED TO FELLOWSHIP CLASS: Rep. Barbara Freiberg and Rep. Vanessa Caston LaFleur have been named to the Council of State Governments 2024 Henry Toll Fellowship Class. The program brings 49 officials from all three branches of state governments together for a five-day “leadership boot camp” designed to stimulate personal assessment and growth while providing networking and relationship-building opportunities, the group says.
— GOOD GOVERNMENT GROUP PRAISES WILLARD: The Alliance for Good Government has selected Rep. Matthew Willard as its 2024 Legislator of the Year. Bills Willard passed this year the group highlighted include legislation to extend the Fortify Homes Program, require insurance discounts for fortified roofs, and suspend the 10 percent surcharge on Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance policies.
— LASC PROVIDES SENTENCING RESOURCES: Louisiana Supreme Court Chief Justice John L. Weimer has provided to every Louisiana state judge with jurisdiction in criminal cases a “bench book” to use as a resource in sentencing decisions, the state Supreme Court announced. “This bench book serves as a guide for judges to choose the programs that are most effective for the particular circumstances of each offender,” Weimer said. “The larger goal is, whenever possible, to end the cycle of release, re-arrest, and re-incarceration and instead rehabilitate offenders into productive tax-paying citizens.”
— TIP TAXES: Congressional candidate Elbert Guillory called on Vice President Kamala Harris to take action to eliminate taxes on tips, after she recently endorsed the concept on the campaign trail. Donald Trump proposed doing so in June, spurring Republicans in Congress to introduce legislation to that effect. The White House says President Joe Biden would sign such a bill if it reached his desk. “I believe a good idea is a good idea, no matter the source,” Guillory said.
— FREEDOM CAUCUS SCOLDS BRITISH POLICE COMMISSIONER: The Louisiana Freedom Caucus “wishes to remind London’s Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley that no laws in the United Kingdom have been in effect or in force in the Contiguous 48 United States states since 1776,” the group says in a prepared statement. Rowley reportedly has threatened to charge foreigners for “whipping up hatred” amid riots in the U.K.
LaPolitics: How was this year’s fishing rodeo? Why is this event important for your organization?
David Cresson, executive director and CEO, CCA Louisiana: The 2024 Legislators’ Rodeo was outstanding, our largest to date. Grand Isle is such an iconic place in Louisiana and the epicenter of our marine ecosystem. Our volunteers from across the state hosted and fished more than 90 state legislators, roughly 150 elected officials, and about 650 total guests. With so many new legislators after last year’s election, we knew this one would be extra-important as we work to introduce policymakers to our coast, the challenges we face, and the CCA members from around the state.
How have anglers responded to the new redfish limits? Do you think more redfish changes could be on the horizon?
As with any change, there are people who like it and people who don’t. The results from regulation changes take some time to realize and there will likely be the need to refine those once stocks respond. In 2025, CCA and our partners will release hatchery-raised redfish (from Louisiana brood-stock) across Louisiana’s coast to supplement our challenged stocks. Not only will these fish add to the numbers, but they will give us the opportunity to do genetics work that will help us learn even more about the species, and ultimately manage them even better.
What about the new rules for speckled trout? Do you feel like those are in a good place?
Most anglers I know were in favor of the move to a 15-fish bag limit. The move to a 13-inch minimum size and the upper end slot limit are a different story…some like it, and many do not. CCA recommended a move to a 15-fish bag limit while keeping the 12-inch minimum size, expressing numerous concerns, including the release mortality of 12-inch to 13-inch fish. CCA looks forward to continued evaluation of the data.
How many reef projects has CCA been involved with? Why are those important?
This week, CCA’s REEF Louisiana Program will complete artificial reef number 53 when we build the Hotel Sid Reef north of Grand Isle with our partners. Each reef or platform in Louisiana is its own small ecosystem, teaming with abundant life at all stages. Each time we lose one, we lose a piece of Louisiana, just like an eroding coast. Our program is designed to identify this lost habitat and rebuild it, either in the form of shallow water oyster-style reefs or deeper water reefs designed to replace decommissioned platforms.
What is your take on efforts so far to address the menhaden issue, and what more should be done?
Progress has been made, but there is work yet to be done. Louisiana has implemented a half-mile coastwide buffer with extended buffers around Grand Isle and Holly Beach. We have also implemented new harvest reporting rules and established more stringent fines and penalties for fish spills and other violations. There also is an independent bycatch study happening. It will be interesting to learn how changes within that industry have long-lasting impacts on various fish stocks across Louisiana’s coast.
Is there anything new on the agenda for CCA next year?
New technology was demonstrated during the CCA Legislators’ Rodeo that appears to hold great promise for enabling LDWF and others to collect better data across Louisiana’s ever-changing coast. We suspect those present will be great advocates for enabling LDWF to secure that new technology and begin to incorporate it into their sampling regime.
State law requires parish governments to cover many of the expenses of the criminal justice agencies in their jurisdiction.
But the law doesn’t define what adequate funding should look like.
When parishes are flush with cash, this generally isn’t a problem. District attorneys, sheriffs and judges make their budget requests, and parish presidents, councils and police juries are often happy to oblige. After all, everyone wants to keep their streets safe and put the bad guys away.
But as St. Tammany Parish has discovered, when the money’s tight, things can get testy. Officials there have tried and failed five times in recent years to get public approval for criminal justice funding, and the budgeting debate has moved from the political arena to the courtroom.
That’s not usually how it works, but it does happen. And with the rising anti-tax sentiment among voters, it might happen more often, which is why locals may want to keep an eye on the outcomes in St. Tammany.
The late DA Warren Montgomery fired the first volley in 2022, suing parish government for allegedly not funding his office up to legal standards. Parish government filed suit against the DA, hoping a judge would say the funding is adequate.
Not to be outdone, the 22nd Judicial District Court sued the parish in 2023. Without getting too deep on the legal back-and-forth, the main question is straightforward: How much does the parish have to pay to meet its state mandate?
“Let’s get a determination of these statutes,” Parish President Mike Cooper said this week, explaining the rationale to seek declaratory judgments against the criminal justice agencies. “We need to find out what our mandates are.”
Cooper said the parish has been successful in the two cases that have been heard, obtaining rulings that the funding for the 22nd JDC and City Court of Slidell is adequate. Those rulings may be appealed.
Still to be decided are cases against the DA’s office and the sheriff’s office over correctional facility operations and maintenance. Cooper hopes to have both resolved before the end of the year.
St. Tammany Parish District Attorney Collin Sims did not respond to a request for comment made to his office in time for publication. But at a Parish Council meeting earlier this month, he reportedly made a fiery speech urging Cooper to settle the lawsuit, lamenting the expense and arguing that it’s the elected officials’ job to work out a budget, not the courts’.
“Why do we live here? I hope it’s not to engage in millions of dollars in litigation over something that we’re all hired to agree on,” he said.
But Cooper said he wants to establish a baseline, which could provide some guidance to officials outside the parish as well, though he acknowledges every parish is different.
“If I’m the judge, I’m punting that back to the Council faster than you can blink an eye,” said Jason DeCuir, a tax attorney with Advantous State and Local Tax Experts, who said he wasn’t familiar with the St. Tammany cases. “If not, the courts are going to start deciding parish budgets, which would be crazy.”
And indeed, if you read similar cases, judges typically chastise parties for not working it out before reaching the bench, said Dannie Garrett, an attorney with extensive experience representing local governments.
“It is certainly an issue all across the state,” he said. “DAs want more, parishes are trying to spend money on other stuff, and the citizenry doesn’t always understand what the obligations are.”
The disputes don’t get that far very often, but it’s certainly not unheard of, Garrett said. He said the conflict is often driven less by finances than by a breakdown of trust between the personalities involved.
Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that a court case will set a precedent for others to follow, and it would be difficult for lawmakers to get specific in the statutes about what the obligations are. That’s because the circumstances are going to be unique depending on the parish and the fiscal situation at the time, Garrett said.
What might help is a different funding system entirely. Perhaps the state should eliminate the current piecemeal system and pay for 100 percent of the judicial system’s costs, Garrett suggests.
“Criminal matters are State of Louisiana versus Mr. Accused,” he said. “It’s not Jefferson Parish. It’s not East Baton Rouge Parish…It is a state criminal justice system.”
Back in St. Tammany Parish, Cooper and other parish leaders are taking a new tack. Instead of a separate tax, they want to reallocate an existing tax.
Cooper said taxes that were not renewed dedicated more than $20 million to the agencies. The new proposal calls for taking up to 17 percent of an existing 2 percent sales tax, which raises $89 million annually for infrastructure, and spending that $15 million or so on mandated justice funding.
The new revenue, along with the parish general fund, should be enough, Cooper said. But the parish has decided not to put it on the November ballot, as originally planned, because while Cooper said he has garnered significant support, he’s not sure it will be enough.
“Any opposition to this plan could make it dead on arrival,” he said.
But he hopes that a few extra months of education will ensure success on the March ballot.
“We all want the same thing,” he said. “We want to support our criminal justice system.”
CARMEL — On the Friday before many Memorial Day weekends, an entourage appears at the Crown Hill Cemetery gravesite of the late Gov. Robert D. Orr.
Those gathered often include past associates and aides, ranging from Lt. Gov. John Mutz to Chief Justice Randall Shepard, House Speaker Paul Mannweiller to Mark Lubbers, John Hammond III, Bob Grand, Mike McDaniel, Dollyne Sherman, Mark Massa and Ken and Lisa Kobe.
These are an earnest display of kinship and loyalty, friendship and honor. Gov. Orr had always expressed his gratitude for their service. Even after he departed Earth’s surly bonds, their collective affections remain constant.
There have been a number of displays of Hoosier loyalty to the standard bearer. The Indiana Democratic Editorial Association not so long ago witnessed such devotion to the Conrad, Bayh and O’Bannon families. Late Friday nights in the French Lick Springs Resort lobby foyer, one could find Mary Lou Conrad (wife of the late Lt. Gov. Larry Conrad) pounding out old ballads on the piano as dozens of people sang along.
At Crooked Stick Golf Club in Carmel last Saturday, former Gov. Mitch Daniels hosted the 20th year reunion for his breakthrough 2004 campaign that ended 16 years of Democratic rule and began the current GOP’s two decades of Statehouse dominance.
“There’s not a face in this crowd that I wouldn’t thank personally,” Daniels said following an array of past aides reminiscing about the decade they spent campaigning for him and governing with him.
Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman recounted the weekend she spent in 2003 campaigning with Daniels on RV1, saying, “When I got off the RV for the last time, I said, ‘I believe in what you’re doing here and I will do anything I can to help you.’ “
Ben Ledo recalled the hundreds of hours he spent driving RV1, recounting a late Saturday night drive up I-65 from Scottsburg to Indy after a long, long day. “Have we ever been to Austin?” Ledo recalled Daniels asking, a prelude to a last minute campaign stop at a local tavern where the candidate greeted folks barstool to barstool.
Mark Lubbers regaled the crowd about how Adam Horst had left the door to RV1 open at the DeKalb County Fair, with Daniels manically swatting dozens of invading flies with a leather bound notebook.
Chief of Staff Earl Goode recalled how Daniels reached out to him while building out his administration. “I might be willing to do something for 18 months,” said Goode, who has since spent 10 years in the chief role under Govs. Daniels and Eric Holcomb.
“The foundation of the Holcomb administration was formed under Daniels,” Goode said.
Indiana National Guard Adj. Gen. R. Martin Umbarger recounted doing the next to impossible, which was to seek new program funding from the notoriously frugal governor (he succeeded). He also noted that Daniels attended the funerals of all but one Indiana National guardsmen who died in the Iraq War (Skillman attended the one he missed).
As these folks spoke, I couldn’t help but notice the gathered array of talent among Team Daniels: Mickey Maurer, Todd Huston, Trevor Foughty, Mike O’Brien, Bob and Ellen Whitt, Betsy Wiley and dozens of others.
When Daniels was handed the mic, he said, “I have to start with Becky. She was a full partner. She was so ideal and so instrumental in everything we did. She was the one who not only knew the legislative process, but she was so widely respected and beloved. She was able to see problems coming before I would. She was able to solve problems that usually I created.
“I have been asked so many times by people who come into a job like I had, ‘What advice do you have?’ Break your neck to talk to people,” Daniels said. “Appeal to their idealism; appeal to their sense of doing something for others.
“I say without any fear of contradiction — and if anybody doubts it I’ll drown them in facts to prove it — you were the finest collection of public servants Indiana has ever seen and as any state has ever seen,” he continued. “Nothing big ever happens in this world to just one person. So many of you have a lot of runway left.”
The former governor and Purdue University president added that laws were changed, roads were built, reforms were enacted and jobs were created. “Beyond any of that we hoped that we would leave an expectation among our fellow citizens that that’s the way it’s supposed to be.
“What’s the next big thing?” he asked. “I think from time to time we lost a little bit of that. Many of you are in places right now and some of you will be in places in the future, make sure that impulse remains a part of this state. You’re going to have many more chances to do that and that’s what I expect you to do.”
Daniels and the press
Daniels pointed out several reporters were invited to the reunion, including Capital Chronicle’s Niki Kelly and Lesley Weidenbener of the Indianapolis Business Journal. While some in the post-Daniels Republican Party have called the press “enemies of the people,” here was his take:
“They are a disappearing species; people who are genuine professional journalists who have covered all of you at one time or another, sometimes critically, but always with a commitment to facts and to getting the story right. People with history and perspective. You know democracy needs that.”
Welcome to the Kansas Daily News Wire, your daily roundup of top state and political stories from newsrooms across Kansas. — Hawver’s Capitol Report/State Affairs
Judges suggest appeal ‘moot’ with agreement to halt 24-hour abortion wait: A late reveal of an agreement to halt the 24-hour waiting period for an abortion had Kansas Court of Appeals judges questioning Wednesday why they were considering an appeal of last year’s temporary injunction. (Richardson, State Affairs)
Rural Kansas prosecutor retires from office while facing criminal charges: A rural Kansas prosecutor retired from office this week after being accused of numerous crimes, disciplined for telling a woman she owed him a sexual favor and working out an undisclosed plea deal with state authorities. (Kansas Reflector)
Survey reveals shifting parental perceptions over children’s postsecondary career paths: A growing number of parents across Kansas are in favor of their children attending technical colleges or gaining job skills via apprenticeships as opposed to obtaining bachelor’s degrees, according to a study presented to the Kansas State Board of Education on Tuesday.(Resnick, State Affairs)
LOCAL
Defense attorney says trucker partly to blame in deaths of Topeka Girl Scouts: A crash that killed three Topeka Girl Scouts “wouldn’t have happened” if a truck driver involved had slowed down “just a bit,” jurors heard Tuesday from an attorney representing Amber Peery, charged with crimes linked to that crash. (Topeka Capital-Journal)
Plan to repurpose Lenexa hotel into homeless shelter hits snag: Plans for a proposed county homeless services center and shelter at a repurposed Lenexa hotel hit a major snag Wednesday with news that the city’s planning staff plans to recommend denial of a land use permit that would allow the center to operate. (Johnson County Post)
A change at the top of the ticket happened a mere 106 days before the general election in a campaign that Donald Trump was poised to dominate. The sidekick was now thrust into the limelight.
A late-July caucus chose the new nominee. Less than a week later, a running mate was selected. This newly formed ticket faced a plethora of challenges. Staffers would have to be added. Money had to be transferred or raised. They were behind in the polls.
I’m talkin’ about Vice President Kamala Harris and her new veep nominee, Tim Walz, right?
Nope. Though the timing scenarios are exactly the same, this is the story of Eric Holcomb’s historic quest for governor in 2016. Holcomb had one of the most stunning rises in Hoosier political history, winning a 12-day gubernatorial nomination sprint after Gov. Mike Pence ascended to the vice presidential nomination. In five months, Holcomb had evolved from a third-place U.S. Senate candidate to a lieutenant governor appointee and then the party’s gubernatorial standard-bearer in the most unpredictable election cycle during the state’s bicentennial year.
Then he was elected governor.
Lt. Gov. Holcomb, who assumed that role in March 2016, began his ascent with a mere $20,000 in his campaign account while his statewide name recognition was a scant 15%. He faced Democrat John Gregg, who believed he would be in a November rematch with Pence. Gregg had raised more than $10 million by that July.
Holcomb campaign manager Mike O’Brien likened the whirlwind campaign to “building an airplane in mid-flight.”
Holcomb won a Republican Central Committee caucus on the second ballot on July 26, 2016 — just 11 days after Pence had resigned the ticket. Holcomb said something very similar to what Vice President Harris said after President Joe Biden bowed out of the race this past July 21: that he would “lean into it” with his eyes “on the windshield and not on the rearview mirror.”
After he forged a 51.38%-45.42% victory over Gregg in what had begun as a “leans Democrat” race in late July, Holcomb said on election night that November: “You heard what I heard: ‘Holcomb can’t raise enough money. Holcomb can’t put a credible statewide campaign together in this short amount of time. Holcomb can’t do this and Holcomb can’t do that.’ Well, they were partly right. Holcomb couldn’t do it, but we did. We did it because we have the best volunteers in the nation. We did it with a remarkable ground game.”
In the Dec. 1, 2016, edition of Howey Politics Indiana, Holcomb added, “It took the Cubs 108 years to win a World Series and it took us 106 days to win a governor’s race. And that was, literally, how much would have to go into every day, how I would never be asleep before midnight and would be up by 6 a.m. and out the door and, uniquely, still doing the lieutenant governor’s job, never dropping a single spinning plate and filling in for the governor if an area needed attention. And campaigning.”
Gregg, surrounded by crestfallen family members and staff, told a subdued crowd at the Indiana Convention Center on Election Night: “This has been a wacky ride. This is the start where the healing begins. Tonight we’re all Hoosiers. As the dust settles and the wounds begin to heal, we’ll still be Hoosiers. Even though tonight is disappointing, tomorrow will be a new day.”
Trump selects Pence
Just minutes before the deadline to withdraw from his gubernatorial nomination, Pence was named Trump’s veep choice.
“I am pleased to announce that I have chosen Governor Mike Pence as my Vice Presidential running mate. News conference tomorrow at 11:00 A.M.,” Trump tweeted on July 15, 2016.
Sandwiched between that news and the July 26 date to pick a new nominee for governor was the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. The Indiana GOP’s convention hotel, the Hilton Garden Inn near Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, became a hotbed of arm twisting and insider intrigue. Lt. Gov. Holcomb, U.S. Reps. Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita, and state Sen. Jim Tomes all sought the nomination by intensely lobbying the 22 Central Committee members.
Holcomb would win it with 12 votes on the second ballot after leading Brooks and Rokita 11-9-2 on the first. He and his team knew they would win on that next ballot after former legislator Dan Dumezich had fulfilled a promise to vote for Rokita on the first go-round.
“This year, as many of you know, has taken many twists and turns, and I am ready to take this next call and lead us to victory,” Holcomb said at GOP headquarters minutes after his win. He preceded that observation by saying, “We’ve got work to do and a short time to get there.”
In Pence’s madcap dash for the Trump ticket, the critical decision to move his campaign funds to the Republican Governors Association or the Indiana GOP wasn’t executed. That money fell under new Federal Election Commission guidelines as of July 20.
GOP financier Bob Grand told Howey Politics Indiana the day Holcomb was nominated: “It’s all going to get worked out. Eric Holcomb is going to have plenty of money to run this race. A fair amount of it will come from the Mike Pence campaign.”
Holcomb added, “We’ll raise the millions it will take to get the message out over the next 100 days.”
In the end, only $1.2 million of Pence’s money ended up in Holcomb’s coffers.
Six days later, Holcomb would ask the Central Committee to nominate Auditor Suzanne Crouch as lieutenant governor.
“She brings it all,” Holcomb said as he was flanked by the same 22 committee members. “She’s held four important positions. She has legislative and executive experience. Most importantly, she can assume the office.”
Crouch also brought to the campaign a $300,000 war chest.
Holcomb was asked about the impact of Trump on the Indiana gubernatorial race.
“I consider a strong Trump-Pence ticket a strong asset,” he said in a prescient observation.
Gregg had early lead
In late July, Howey Politics Indiana moved the race to “leans Democrat” after the Pence-Gregg matchup had been a “toss-up” since the May primary. In late August, HPI observed, “Holcomb faces a political tornado on Nov. 8. There are bizarre crosswinds with the Trump/Pence campaign, with the reemergence of Evan Bayh in the U.S. Senate race and with one hand financially tied behind his back. He is a constant font of good cheer. He is curious and engaged. He tends to find a good balance of levity and humor. His staff time with Gov. Daniels and Sen. Coats has given him a good grasp of where the state is.”
How was Gregg approaching the race with Pence out? “No differently,” he told HPI. “It’s still about the economy. That’s all it’s ever been about.”
On Sept. 9, 2016, the WTHR/Howey Politics poll showed Gregg maintaining a 40%-35% lead over Holcomb, while new Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Evan Bayh’s lead over Republican Todd Young had dwindled to 44%-40%. For Gregg, the new numbers revealed a decline from the initial April WTHR/Howey Politics poll that showed him trailing Gov. Mike Pence 49%-45%.
“This is a function of the national political environment,” Public Opinion Strategies pollster Gene Ulm said of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. “As Hillary sinks, he sinks with her.”
Howey Politics Indiana observed, “This race could easily move into the toss-up zone by our next poll in early October.”
In late September, Gregg and Holcomb engaged in what HPI described as a “mild debate.” Gregg was asked about the lack of pyrotechnics in that confrontation.
“I’m not hurling insults at Mr. Holcomb and getting into a ‘he said, she said,’” Gregg replied. “I’d rather fix the problem than affix blame. They’ve been civil in this matter. There can be disagreements, but there is no need to get into an argument.”
October toss-up
The second WTHR/Howey Politics poll, published Oct. 6, showed Gregg with a 41%-39% lead over Holcomb (Libertarian Rex Bell stood at 5%), while Bayh’s lead over Young had dwindled to 42%-41%.
The problem Gregg faced then is similar to the one Donald Trump is confronting now.
“Gregg has not been able to distance himself from a still largely unknown challenger in Eric Holcomb,” the Oct. 6 edition of HPI reported. “The Democrat has a 41%-39% lead, but his support has ticked up only 1% from September. That was before Holcomb’s TV ad campaign had kicked in, while Gregg had been advertising statewide since May 5.
“The problem for Gregg is that his campaign was aimed at Gov. Pence,” HPI reported then, just as the Trump campaign’s effort for most of 2024 had been aimed at President Biden and not Vice President Harris.
“The governor’s race is tracking very close to the presidential race,” Ulm said in 2016. “If I would bet money, if Donald Trump wins Indiana, Holcomb wins. If he loses, Holcomb loses. Gregg has to break out of the presidential construct, the presidential architecture. Indiana is a red state, so there’s a slightly shorter path for Holcomb to get there.”
The final poll
The final WTHR/Howey Politics poll, published Nov. 4, had Gregg and Holcomb tied at 42% (with 11% undecided) while Young forged a 5% lead over Bayh.
Could Gregg win?
“I think so,” Ulm said, “but you’d have to give Holcomb the advantage, but not a big one.”
But the trend lines in this third poll were unmistakable. The GOP numbers were beginning to align.
The September WTHR/Howey Politics polls indicated Gregg had a 40%-35% lead over Holcomb. In the October survey Gregg was up just 41%-39%. And in the November survey, the race was tied at 42%, with the Trump-Pence momentum beginning to build. It decimated Indiana Democrats.
“You could draw a line between those three surveys and that’s exactly where we ended up,” Ulm said. “Republicans had all the momentum and it was still moving.”
Bayh’s November favorable/unfavorable ratings had declined to 39%/45% from 48%/28% in the September survey. In essence, Young and his super PAC allies had eviscerated Bayh’s clean image by painting him as enriching himself during and after his Senate term, which he abruptly ended in 2010.
Asked if he had ever seen a candidate’s favorables plummet as considerably as Bayh’s, Ulm said, “Usually when they commit a crime or something or they’re just horribly bad candidates.”
Bayh, who could once count on about 25% of the Republican vote during his last three gubernatorial and U.S. Senate bids, attracted just 7% of the GOP vote.
“Trump’s climb in the polls has been mostly Republicans coming home,” Ulm said.
When Bayh joined the ticket in July (replacing Baron Hill) it was seen as a tailwind for Gregg. But Bayh’s polling collapse inflicted collateral damage on Gregg.
At a rally in downtown Zionsville, Holcomb told supporters: “We’ve made millions of contact attempts and connections. We’ve ID’ed hundreds of thousands of voters, and it’s all coming down — it’s not even seven days anymore. It’s six days and a wakeup. That’s where we are. We’re seven days away to determine which direction this state is going to go and the direction the country is going to go.”
In the Dec. 1, 2016, edition of Howey Politics Indiana, Holcomb was asked if his campaign had been seeing poll numbers similar to those in the WTHR-Howey Politics survey. “We started down six, then down five, then down three, and then down one,” Holcomb said. “We were up one and a half on Election Day per our polling. So it was similar, margin of error, going in. So we knew if we had parity going down the stretch, we would win with or without a Trump wall.”
2016 and 2024 parallels
What are the lessons here?
First, Holcomb demonstrated how you can win a truncated campaign. The U.S. presidential race has become a bloated, multiyear slog. In Europe, presidential (or prime minister) elections are conducted in just weeks or months. Holcomb revealed what Harris is experiencing now: You can win a sprint with the right message, with a running mate who does no harm and with enough money.
As Gregg did with Pence in 2016, Trump was aiming at the Biden mirage until July 22.
Can the Trump-Vance campaign recalibrate and recover? Yes, but Trump needs to expand his voting pool beyond his base.
The addition of Minnesota Gov. Walz to the Harris ticket on Tuesday is meeting with widespread Democratic praise, whereas Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, didn’t appear to be well vetted and has been simmering in controversy.
Walz ascended to the ticket after calling the Trump-Vance ticket “weird.” He will attempt to provide a vivid contrast to Vance. Harris hopes to establish a similar demarcation with Trump, who is now the oldest presidential nominee ever and has been criticized for incoherent rambling at his rallies.
This will be the “prosecutor vs. felon” campaign that has no historic parallel.
Finally, Gregg did not push his early polling advantage over Holcomb through aggressive tactics. Gregg had what Howey Politics Indiana described as a “mild debate” with the new challenger, while Holcomb pressed his case as if he were an Indy 500 driver (i.e., pedal to the metal).
If Harris defeats Trump, her win will likely be due to her aggressive pursuit of a contrast with the former Republican president.
