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Request a DemoCan we take the gas out of inflation in Georgia?
The Gist
Inflation — the increasing cost of goods and services — is causing pain and busting budgets across the country, and even more so for people in Georgia. While the Feds play the long game with interest rates, recent efforts by Gov. Brian Kemp and the state to control inflation so far are low impact, but good for morale.
What’s Happening
Over the last year, the rate of inflation has risen 8.3 percent in the U.S., 10.9 percent in Georgia, and 11.7 percent in metro Atlanta. The cost of groceries, fuel and housing is contributing mightily to the sticker shock that consumers are experiencing. Driving up those costs is an increased demand for all kinds of products by Americans, at a time when employment is high and the global supply chain is stressed.
“A hundred dollars just doesn’t go as far now,” says Ronekia Earley, 29, who was shopping at Piggly Wiggly in southeast Atlanta with her fiancé, Tereze Fortson, 30, and their son Aiden, 9, this week. They have three more children, ages 5 months, 1 and 3-years-old. “What used to last a month now only lasts two or three weeks,” she said. Their cart included packages of pork chops, chicken wings and a jar of mayonnaise with ‘Pick 5 for $24.99’ stickers.
“It used to be ‘Pick 5 for $19.99,’" said Fortson. “They’re shrinking the deal that we depend on.”
Last week, Federal Reserve Bank officials moved to flatten the spike in inflation nationwide by once more raising benchmark interest rates —now at 3% to 3.25% (the highest since 2008). The Federal Reserve will likely increase rates to 4.5% before they’re done raising them next year. This ongoing action by the Fed is expected to drive down demand for vehicles, housing and fuel, and put a damper on spending overall. It also greases the skids to an economic recession, according to many experts.
Earlier this month, Gov. Kemp continued his effort to curb inflation in Georgia by renewing executive orders to temporarily suspend fuel taxes, and relaxing some regulations related to supply chain management – chiefly around how long truck drivers can be on the road, and the size of the loads they can carry. These orders kicked off in March and now extend to Oct. 12.
The impacts of both orders by Kemp “are small, they’re at the margins,” says Marty Parker, a lecturer and supply chain expert at the University of Georgia. “But when you’re talking about a person living on a fixed income, or a business trying to manage a supply chain, the margins are important.”
Parker and other economic experts estimate that with the suspension of the 29.1 cents per gallon state gas tax, the average consumer in Georgia is saving $12 to $15 a month on gas.
That monthly fuel savings “is okay, a little something I put in my son’s piggy bank, to save it for when we might really need it,” said Earley, who works as a school janitor in Atlanta.
The state tax savings on diesel fuel — at 32.6 cents per gallon — can add up to more for small business owners, especially those operating their own trucks or fleets.
Maurice Garard, an owner-operator long haul truck driver based in McDonough, frequently drives several hundred miles at a time. This week at a QT truck fueling station in Forest Park, he filled up his rig stocked with dog food bound for Dallas. At $4.49 per gallon of diesel, he spent $706.69 for 157 gallons, saving $51.18 in state fuel tax.
Garard estimates he saves several hundred dollars a month from the diesel tax break, but said more relief has come from the steady drop in fuel prices since June, when diesel fuel peaked at $5.80 per gallon.
“Diesel prices coming down is critical, and props to the governor for his part in that,” said Garard. “But the cost of everything else is still really high. And if you need to repair your truck, good luck. There’s not enough parts in the market, or mechanics to do repairs.”
Garard said he recently spent $30,000 to have the motor rebuilt on his 53-foot Peterbilt truck, paying a mechanic $150 an hour. He also replaced a fuel pump for $6,000. In both cases he had weeks of down time with no income, while waiting for the repairs to be completed.
He said longer wait times at distribution points are also costing him. On this day he had waited six hours for workers at the Blue Buffalo dog food warehouse in McDonough to load his truck. Recently he waited for 15 hours at a Pilgrim’s Pride chicken plant in south Georgia, while he sat with his refrigerated diesel truck running. Garard estimates that with all of his increased expenses this year, his net income will drop from $230,000 in 2021 to less than $100,000 this year.
The challenges that Garard described are now commonplace in the transportation and distribution industries, said Parker, the supply chain expert. “When a system begins to reach its limits of capacity, the wait times become exponential – and costly.”
Why It Matters
Bottlenecks at the ports of Savannah and Brunswick have caused long delays of shipments of all sorts of goods, and disruptions in supply chains across Georgia and elsewhere for well over a year. The “dwell time” of large containers sitting on ships docked at ports, waiting to be loaded onto trailer trucks and delivered to their final destinations, has improved recently with the construction of 20 percent more container and warehouse space this year. The ports are still congested, but cargo fluidity is improving. Dwell times for imported shipments at Georgia ports currently average 9.35 days; six months ago, they averaged 11.38 days, according to the Georgia Ports Authority.
Beyond the ports, at nearshore warehouses and corporate distribution facilities further inland, storage capacity and the skilled labor needed to keep the goods moving is not sufficient to meet pent-up demand that began during the pandemic.
“We’ve been at 95 percent to 98 percent capacity through COVID,” said Parker. “All of the orders were delayed, and then suddenly started coming in, and we didn’t have anywhere to put the stuff.” He said this “bullwhip effect” – when transitory increases in demand cause suppliers and retailers to over-order and push more inventory into the pipeline than future demand can support – accounts for the currently overwhelmed supply chain system, and higher prices for many items.
Ironically, says Parker, the robust and healthy Georgia economy is part of the inflationary trend. Georgia’s near record low 3 percent unemployment rate and continuing revenue growth – income taxes are currently running 10 percent ahead of last year – are perpetuating an economic boom.
“The Atlanta and Georgia economies have outperformed the national economy for over a year, “ he said. “When you’re doing well, and have more jobs than people to fill them, then it’s a double-edged sword. It leads to the kind of shortages and scarcity that then leads to higher prices.”
Competing Economic Prescriptions on the Campaign Trail
Both Gov. Kemp and his Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams are touting their economic plans and prescriptions to curb inflation as a way to appeal to Georgia voters, who cite the cost of living and concerns about the economy as their top issues in recent polls.
When Kemp renewed his two executive orders this month, he said in a statement, “With our nation experiencing 40-year high inflation, ongoing supply chain challenges, and some of the highest gas prices ever, Democrats in D.C. continue to spend taxpayer money with no regard for the costs and its impact on hardworking families … While these politicians continue to double down on bad policies, we are using the means available to us to provide much-needed relief to Georgians. As I've said since we first suspended the fuel tax back in March, we can't fix everything Washington has broken, but we can use the resources we have as a result of our responsible budgeting to keep more money in the pockets of hardworking Georgians."
Kemp plans to return $2 billion of the $6.7 billion fiscal year 2022 surplus to Georgians in the form of state income tax rebates — which would give $250 to single filers and $500 to married couples — and property tax breaks, which would average about $500 per homeowner.
Two weeks ago, Abrams appeared on the ABC talk show "The View" and said, when asked about her fix for inflation, “The goal is not only to bring down prices, but to bring up wages. Georgia is one of the lowest wage states in the nation. And although we have more jobs coming in, those jobs are often low-wage jobs that you have to have two or three of to make a living.”
She promoted her plan to expand Medicaid, which she has said repeatedly on the campaign trail would insure more than 500,000 Georgians currently lacking coverage and create 64,000 new jobs in Georgia. And she pledged to return $1 billion of the 2022 surplus to Georgia taxpayers, “but cap it at those who make $250,000 or less, instead of giving the bulk of money to the wealthiest Georgians.”
What’s Next
“The truth is, there’s no easy way to tame inflation,” said Parker. “There’s always going to be some amount of pain involved. And it’s really at a federal level where you control these levers. States have a limit on what they can do. Giving back a surplus will only help people on a short-term basis.”
In presenting his economic forecast for Georgia and the nation last month, Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University said, “Curing inflation will be a year and a half process,” and that a “very determined” Federal Reserve will “eliminate excess demand by hiking interest rates sufficiently.” He predicted that Consumer Price Index inflation rates will average 8.2 percent by the end of 2022, moderate to 4.3 percent in 2023, and settle down to 2.0 percent in 2024.
The pain coming to consumers and employers along the way will manifest in the form of slower job growth and an economic recession, locally and nationally, he said.
“The energy-price-hike-induced inflation has cratered consumer confidence” across the nation, Dhawan said, “signaling less spending in coming months.” He predicts job growth in the U.S. will drop sharply from its 496,000 monthly pace in the first half of 2022 to 165,000 in monthly job losses by mid-2023.
Georgia’s economy, on the other hand, will continue to outperform the U.S. economy, he said, noting that Georgia’s economy is currently buoyed by its low unemployment rate and “superb job growth,” adding 137,400 jobs in the past seven months, led by the hospitality and retail sectors. But “the biggest stumbling block for growth” in those sectors, said Dhawan, will not be rising interest rates, but a shortage of workers to meet the sectors’ “blistering growth rate.” He predicted the robust pace of job growth in Georgia manufacturing (44,000 this year) will also slow, as the increased cost of energy caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to take its toll.
Overall, he said, the state will gain fewer jobs in 2023 (52,200) than in 2022 (176,200). However, Georgia will still show positive growth, unlike the nation as a whole.
“Labor issues are not getting better any time soon,” said Parker, who agrees that “a shock to the economy” is coming soon in the form of ever-higher interest rates. “The big question is, will it be a soft or a hard landing?”
Join the Conversation
What do you want to know about inflation and the Georgia economy? Share your thoughts by emailing [email protected] or on Twitter @journalistajill.
Follow Key Players for This Story:
Food Costs and Consumer Price Index rates – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, National Statistics Office of Georgia
Gas Prices – AAA Gas Prices
Martin Parker, Lecturer, Supply Chain Management at University of Georgia, Terry College of Business
Rajeev Dhawan, Chair of Economic Forecasting, Economic Forecasting Center of Georgia State University, Robinson College of Business
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Header photo: Maurice Garard, an owner-operator long haul truck driver based in McDonough, filling up his truck with gas at the QT truck fueling station in Forest Park this week. (Credit: Jill Jordan Sieder for State Afffairs)
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House speaker Jon Burns hires new communications director
House speaker Jon Burns, R-Newington, announced today that he has hired a new communications director. Kayla Roberson, who has served as press secretary at the Georgia Chamber for the past year or so, will now oversee all external communications, media relations and strategic messaging for Burns.
“I’m excited to welcome Kayla to our team,” Burns said in a statement. “Kayla has an excellent background, deep skill set and strong work ethic, and we’re excited to have her on board to continue getting our message out and sharing the House’s priorities ahead of and into the next session.”
A double major in political science and journalism at the University of Georgia, where she graduated in 2022, Roberson interned for U.S. Rep. Andrew Clyde, a Republican in north Georgia’s 9th Congressional District, and worked as a consultant for GOP political candidates before joining the Georgia Chamber.
“I’m beyond grateful for the opportunity to work under the leadership of speaker Burns,” Roberson told State Affairs. “Whether it’s improving education opportunities, putting money back in the pockets of hardworking Georgians, creating jobs or supporting our rural communities, speaker Burns always prioritizes doing what is best, and what is right, for Georgia.”
Political strategist Stephen Lawson, who has held the top communications role for the speaker since last December, announced he’s joining Dentons, where starting today he’ll lead the global law firm’s public affairs efforts.
Have questions or comments? Contact Jill Jordan Sieder on X @journalistajill or at [email protected].
Global bird flu disrupts Georgia exports, costing chicken producers millions
ATLANTA — A global bird flu that has rapidly spread from birds to dairy cows, milk supplies and humans has cost untold millions of dollars in lost export business in Georgia, the nation’s leading poultry producer, officials with the state Department of Agriculture and poultry industry said.
Georgia has had only three reported cases of H5N1 avian influenza since it reemerged in 2022. The last of those cases was resolved in November 2023 but ramifications of those outbreaks continue to have a big effect on the state’s ability to export chicken and chicken parts, such as chicken feet, to different countries, including China, one of Georgia’s biggest export markets for chicken feet.
In 2022, frozen chicken feet, for example, accounted for more than 85% of all U.S. poultry exported to China, according to Farm Progress, publisher of 22 farming and ranching magazines.
The $30 billion poultry industry is Georgia’s largest segment in its No. 1 industry — agriculture.
China has also placed a ban on the import of chicken products from 41 other American states. The ban on Georgia products went into effect Nov. 21, 2023. Efforts to reach the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. were unsuccessful.
Georgia Poultry Federation President Mike Giles estimates the state’s loss at “well into the millions of dollars.”
“It’s a significant amount in a significant export market for us,” he said. “Poultry paws [feet] immediately lose value because of the loss of demand.”
The ban has forced Georgia poultry producers to find alternative markets for their products that would normally be headed to China.
“Some are sold domestically, some are frozen and stored, hopefully to find markets later on, and some go to other countries,” Giles said.
This isn’t the first time China has banned U.S.-produced poultry products due to a bird flu outbreak. The country instituted a ban in January 2015 which lasted until November 2019 — even though U.S. poultry products were deemed free of the disease by August 2017.
After that ban was lifted, China’s appetite for American-produced chicken products became voracious.
In 2022, U.S. producers shipped nearly $6 billion in poultry meat and related products (excluding eggs) to over 130 countries. China has emerged as the second largest destination for U.S. poultry exports, increasing from $10 million in 2019 to a record $1.1 billion in 2022, according to Southern Ag Today.
Chicken paws, for instance, are eaten in many Asian countries, including the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Korea.They can also be found on Chinese dim sum menus throughout the U.S. and are also popular in Jamaica, Trinidad, Russia and Ukraine in everything from soups and curries to fried snacks.
Three Georgia counties have reported H5N1 outbreaks since 2022. The most recent case was late last year. Henry, Sumter and Toombs counties each reported one case of H5N1 bird flu. Those outbreaks are resolved, poultry and state agriculture officials say.
“When HPAI cases are found in any state, that state is given a designation that could lead to foreign countries halting trade on poultry products from that state,” Georgia Department of Agriculture spokesman Matthew Agvent told State Affairs.
Not since 2016 has the United States experienced such a fast-moving case of the H5N1 avian influenza. In the last two months, the virus has spread in parts of the United States from birds to dairy cows, some milk supplies and humans. Two people — a Texas dairy worker and a prison inmate in Colorado who was killing infected birds at a poultry farm — are reported to have caught the virus, according to news reports. The outbreak is the largest in recent history, impacting both domestic poultry and livestock as well as wild birds and some mammal species.
State officials are continuing to monitor the national outbreak and its impact on Georgia.
Georgia’s poultry & egg industry: At A Glance
Annual economic impact: $30.2 billion
Percentage of the Agriculture industry: 58% *
Jobs: 87,900
Counties involved in poultry & egg production: 3 out of 4
National ranking in chicken broiler production: No. 1
Daily production of table eggs: 7.8 million
Daily production of hatching eggs: 6.5 million
Pounds of chicken produced daily: 30.2 million
Pounds of chicken produced annually: 8 billion
Number of chicken broilers processed each day: 5 million
Counties involved in poultry & egg production: 3 out of 4
Source: Georgia Poultry Federation; The Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development, University of Georgia, Ag Snapshots 2024; Georgia Poultry Federation.
Have questions? Contact Tammy Joyner on X @lvjoyner or at [email protected].
Is it safe to eat chicken and eggs and drink milk? Answers to your most pressing questions about the latest bird flu outbreak
A two-year-old strain of bird flu has heightened concerns in Georgia and the rest of the country after the virus recently spread to dairy cows. Here’s what you need to know about the virus and its impact on Georgia and the rest of the country. What are the symptoms of this flu in humans? Eye …
Kemp signs bills on education, health care, taxes
Gov. Brian Kemp signed a slew of bills over the past week or so, including the private school voucher bill long sought by Republicans and a bill that will ease regulations over the construction and expansion of medical facilities in rural areas.
His bill-signing events were clustered into themes: education, health care, military members, human trafficking and Georgia’s coastal communities.
Education
Among the education-related bills Kemp signed was Senate Bill 233, also known as the Georgia Promise Scholarship Act, which provides the families of Georgia students enrolled in underperforming school districts with $6,500 scholarships that can be used toward private school or homeschooling expenses, including tuition, fees, textbooks and tutoring.
“Georgia is affording greater choice to families as to how and where they receive their education, while also continuing our efforts to strengthen public schools, support teachers, and secure our classrooms,” Kemp said, and thanked leadership in the House and Senate for prioritizing passage of the bill, which had failed in a close vote in 2023.
Democrats and many public education advocates who opposed the bill argued it will drain resources from public schools and primarily benefit students from wealthy families.
Kemp also signed Senate Bill 351, sponsored by nine Republican senators, which will require social media companies, as of July 1, 2025, to verify their users are at least 16 years old unless they receive approval from a parent.
House Bill 409, sponsored by Rep. Lauren Daniel, R-Locust Grove, directs school systems to consider not having bus stops where a student would have to cross a roadway with a speed limit of 40 mph or greater. The bill also increases the penalty for passing a stopped school bus to $1,000 from $250.
Kemp noted that Ashley Pierce, the mother of Addy Pierce, an 8-year-old who was fatally struck by a motorist as she boarded her school bus, “passionately advocated for and was instrumental in the passage of this legislation.”
Senate Bill 395, sponsored by Sen. Clint Dixon, R-Gwinnett, states that no school visitor or personnel can be prohibited from possessing an opioid reversal drug such as Narcan and directs schools to maintain a supply. It also allows opioid antagonists to be sold in vending machines and directs certain government buildings to maintain a supply of at least three doses.
Senate Bill 464, also sponsored by Dixon, creates the School Supplies for Teachers Program to financially and technically support teachers purchasing school supplies online. It also creates an executive committee of five voting members within the Georgia Council on Literacy and limits the number of approved literacy screeners to five, one of whom must be available to schools for free.
Health care
The governor chose his hometown of Athens as the venue to sign several bills aimed at improving health care in rural and underserved communities.
Among them was House Bill 1339, sponsored by Rep. Butch Parrish, R-Swainsboro, which revises the Certificate of Need process by which the state determines if and how new medical facilities can be built or expanded. The bill provides for several new exemptions, including psychiatric or substance abuse inpatient programs, basic perinatal services in rural counties, birthing centers and new general acute hospitals in rural counties. It also raises the total limit on tax credits for donations to rural hospital organizations to $100 million from $75 million.
Senate Bill 480, sponsored by Sen. Mike Hodges, R-Brunswick, establishes student loan repayments for mental health and substance use professionals serving underserved youth in the state or in unserved geographic areas disproportionately impacted by social determinants of health.
House Bill 872, sponsored by Rep. Lee Hawkins, R-Gainesville, chair of the House Health and Human Services Committee, expands cancelable loans for certain health care professionals to dental students who agree to practice in rural areas.
Senate Bill 293, sponsored by Sen. Ben Watson, R-Savannah, chair of the Senate Health and Human Services Committee, reorganizes county boards of public health and opens the qualifications for the CEO of each county board of health to include either licensed physicians or people with a master’s degree in public health or a related field.
Military members and veterans
Kemp on Wednesday focused on bills to improve military recruitment and provide more work opportunities for veterans and military family members.
House Bill 880, sponsored by Rep. Bethany Ballard, R-Warner Robins, allows spouses of military service members to work under a license they hold in good standing in another state while under the supervision of an existing Georgia medical facility or provider.
Senate Bill 449, sponsored by Sen. Larry Walker, allows military medical personnel to practice for 12 months while a license application is pending, including working as a certified nursing aide, certified emergency medical technician, paramedic or licensed practical nurse. The bill also creates a new advanced practice registered nurse license and makes it a misdemeanor to practice advanced nursing without a license.
Human trafficking
The governor on Wednesday was accompanied by first lady Marty Kemp and other members of the GRACE Commission for the signing of an anti-human trafficking package. It includes Senate Bill 370, which adds certain businesses to the list of organizations that must post human trafficking notices, including convenience stores, body art studios, businesses that employ licensed massage therapists and manufacturing facilities.
Sponsored by Sen. Mike Hodges, R-Brunswick, the bill also allows the Georgia Board of Massage Therapy to initiate inspections of massage therapy businesses and educational programs without notice and requires massage therapy board members to complete yearly human trafficking awareness training.
House Bill 993, sponsored by Rep. Alan Powell, R-Hartwell, creates the felony offense of grooming of a minor and creates new penalties for offenses relating to visual mediums depicting minors engaged in sexually explicit conduct.
House Bill 1201, sponsored by Rep. Houston Gaines, R-Athens, allows human trafficking survivors who received first offender or conditional discharge status to vacate that status for certain crimes, as long as the crime was a direct result of being a victim of human trafficking.
Coastal communities
Earlier today in Brunswick, Kemp signed legislation impacting Georgia coastal communities, including House Bill 244, which amends the laws around how wild game can be hunted and how seafood dealers operate, and House Bill 1341, which designates white shrimp as the state’s official crustacean.
Taxes
Earlier this month Kemp signed several bills related to taxation, including House Bill 1015, sponsored by Rep. Lauren McDonald, R-Cumming, which lowers the state income tax for tax year 2024 to 5.39%, accelerating a multiyear drop in state income taxes that started at 5.75% in 2023 and will continue through 2029.
The Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget estimates the tax cut acceleration will save Georgia taxpayers approximately $1.1 billion in calendar year 2024 and about $3 billion over the next 10 years.
Kemp also signed House Bill 1021, sponsored by Rep. Lauren Daniel, R-Locust Grove, which increases the state’s income tax dependent exemption to $4,000 from $3,000.
House Bill 581, sponsored by Reps. Shaw Blackmon, R-Bonaire, and Clint Crowe, R-Jackson, enables a constitutional amendment (House Resolution 1022) to let voters decide whether counties can provide a statewide homestead valuation freeze, which limits the increase in property values to the inflation rate.
The governor has until May 7 to sign or veto bills passed during the legislative session that ended on March 28. Those he takes no action on will automatically become law.
Legislation signed by Kemp is posted on the governor’s website.
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Have questions, comments or tips on education in Georgia? Contact Jill Jordan Sieder on X @journalistajill or at [email protected].
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