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Residents fill the sidewalk on a warm spring day in downtown Indianapolis. (Credit: Mark Curry)
Republican primary voters care most about the economy and immigration along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to a State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana poll released Thursday.
More than three-quarters of poll respondents said the economy was a key issue motivating them ahead of the May 7 primary election.
Marjorie Hershey, professor emeritus of political science at Indiana University, said the nation’s financial future is a complicated issue.
On the one hand, many aspects of the economy have improved under President Joe Biden, she said. But one key factor changes the math for many voters.
“Inflation is probably the economic indicator that is most accessible to the most people,” Hershey said. “People see inflation every time they go to the supermarket, every time they go to purchase anything.”
The online poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, interviewed 700 Republican and Republican-leaning independents from April 4-7. Its margin of error was 3.8 percentage points.
From that group, 447 likely voters were asked to identify three major issues from a list of eight possibilities.
State Affairs focused on Republican and Republican-leaning voters due to the competition for the party’s gubernatorial nomination. Jennifer McCormick, former superintendent of public instruction, is running unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Indiana’s Republican gubernatorial candidates have focused their TV ads and public statements on issues such as tax reform and economic development.
Looking beyond the country’s finances, about 68% of respondents chose the border and 43% identified crime as factors in their upcoming voting decisions.
“[The results] were largely on par with the nation,” said Ken Alper, president of SurveyUSA. “The economy usually dwarfs other issues.”
The poll yielded more concern about the border than expected, he said, especially given Indiana is not in close proximity to Mexico.
“Crime also wasn’t as close to the economy, despite a lot of national messaging,” Alper said.
James McCann, a political science professor at Purdue University, said the border’s significance to poll respondents was likely due to the national conversation driven by the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump.
“If you asked a lot of Hoosiers, ‘Do you know immigrants? Have you been to the border?’ … you’re not going to see a great deal of concern,” McCann said. “But the way the border has become politicized, it’s a reflex response in polls.”
Health care (28%), abortion (19%), education (17%), fentanyl use (15%) and civil rights (5%) rounded out the list of top issues. Just 3% of the likely voters said an issue not in the poll’s options was their primary motivator.
Men and women responded similarly when asked about motivating topics, save for one: About 23% of women identified abortion as a key issue, compared to 16% of men.
Older voters tended to care more about the border, while younger respondents focused more on education and civil rights.
Urban, suburban and rural voters were evenly split on most issues with the exception of crime, which was less of a concern for city dwellers.
In the poll, Sen. Mike Braun led the Republican field for Indiana governor, with 44% of respondents signaling their support.
Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch was a distant second with 10%. Former state Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers and Fort Wayne businessman Eric Doden, who have each spent millions on the campaign, received 8% of support. Former Attorney General Curtis Hill and conservative activist Jamie Reitenour secured 2%.
Braun polled consistently on the issues, with about 40%-50% on each across the board.
McCann was not surprised at Braun’s position.
“What Braun has going for him is not only the Trump endorsement but sizable statewide recognition,” McCann said. “He’s used his Senate resources to improve that. There’s a general halo effect from that, so I can’t imagine you’re seeing granular distinctions across the issues.
“People have a generally positive view,” McCann said of Braun. “He has an afterglow.”
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A banner week for investment within Indiana has capped off the state’s biggest financial quarter in recent history, as three major companies agreed to deals estimated to bring in billions of dollars.
The state has long advertised itself as business-friendly, and its chief executive appeared thrilled by the week’s news.
“This is about $15 billion in about 72 hours,” Gov. Eric Holcomb told reporters on Friday. “This used to take four years to achieve.”
One announced project, an $11 billion Amazon Web Services data center in north-central Indiana, is the biggest single investment in the state’s history.
Google also broke ground on a $2 billion data center near Fort Wayne, while Toyota announced a $1.4 billion investment in its Princeton plant.
“Our economy is on fire,” Secretary of Commerce David Rosenberg said.
His agency, the Indiana Economic Development Corp., negotiated the deals. The state is offering millions of dollars in tax incentives in order to create some 1,500 new jobs.
“These industries bring generational change for families, putting more money in their pockets and allowing them the opportunity to have a better quality of life on their own,” Rosenberg said.
The projects
Amazon’s new data center will be built near New Carlisle. It’s expected to bring in at least 1,000 new jobs in the artificial intelligence and cloud storage sectors. No timetable for completion of the project was given.
According to Amazon, the company has invested $21.5 billion in Indiana since 2010, creating 26,000 full- and part-time jobs.
Google’s new data center will hire up to 200 new workers, the tech giant said, “in the coming years.”
Toyota will build a new assembly line that will assemble battery-operated SUVs by the end of 2025. It expects to add up to 340 new jobs to the plant, which Toyota said now employs more than 7,500.
The company has spent $8 billion on the Princeton plant since breaking ground in 1996, Toyota said.
The new projects’ figures represent early estimates and could change as they move forward.
Incentives aren’t the only factor
Rosenberg praised the Indiana General Assembly for passing legislation that allows the state to offer sales tax exemptions as a lure for new businesses. Both Amazon and Google will receive such boosts, and the Amazon project could receive up to $100 million in additional credits based on various incentives.
But Rosenberg stressed tax breaks are only part of the equation as the state looks to compete internationally.
“We don’t have to have the highest offer because we bring the university partners, the state and local governments, utilities — everyone around the table to make sure that company has what they need,” he said.
The Google project, for example, includes partnerships with Ivy Tech Community College on a new job training program and Indiana Michigan Power to bring clean energy resources to the local grid.
Recruiting new industries
Rosenberg said tech recruitment has been a particular focus for the IEDC, as Indiana is looking to provide an “ecosystem” for these companies to thrive off one another. The state’s semiconductor facilities will provide the materials needed for these new data centers, he noted.
Recruiting new business takes anywhere between six months to several years. Zoning, road construction, utilities and more need to be worked out ahead of time.
The IEDC has been on a hot streak, Rosenberg said. During the agency’s first 11 years, it secured just under $50 billion in new projects. It has now pulled in more than $71 billion since the beginning of 2022.
In the first four months of 2024, $20.68 billion has been pledged to projects in Indiana — the most for a quarter since IEDC’s founding in 2005.
‘Strong partners for the Indiana economy’
“The key is that these investments represent long-lasting and continued commitment to being strong partners for the Indiana economy,” said Andrew Butters, an associate professor of business economics and public policy at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business.
Large companies came out of the pandemic looking to reorient their supply chains, Butters said, and some states have reaped the benefits of projects that might have previously moved overseas.
Indiana has been able to compete by selling its location, workforce, labor force participation in addition to offering incentives, Butters said.
“I would not be shocked to see more of these as the state attempts to transition toward more high-tech and high-skill industries,” Butters said.
Contact Rory Appleton on X at @roryehappleton or email him at [email protected].