While many candidates were out campaigning furiously during early voting in Thursday’s Republican and Democratic primary election, plenty of Tennessee voters responded with a shrug with figures showing far fewer people cast ballots in primary contests compared with a similar state and office ballot in 2020.

According to the Secretary of State, 353,774 voters cast ballots over the 14-day period which wrapped up on Saturday, a 39% drop over the 583,704 who showed up to vote during the early voting period four years ago.

On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is facing token opposition in her Republican primary election. There’s just one competitive U.S. House GOP primary contest among the eight Republican seats, that being in the 5th Congressional District contest between freshman Rep. Andy Ogles of Maury County and Nashville Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston. 

The big difference between 2024 and 2020 is the lack of a marquee statewide Republican U.S. Senate contrast. Four years ago, Bill Hagerty, a Trump-endorsed former U.S. ambassador to Japan prevailed over physician Manny Sethi.

Democrats have a U.S. Senate Democratic primary headlined by state Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville, one of the “Tennessee Three” who were temporarily expelled for participating in an impromptu House floor protest following last year’s mass shooting at a Nashville private school. But Johnson, who has $2 million in cash on hand, has competition from Memphis environmentalist Marquita Bradshaw who unexpectedly won Democrats’ nod in 2020 over better funded Nashville attorney James Mackler. 

State races

There are also several seriously contested Republican races for state House and Senate seats this year. But heavy outside spending hasn’t resulted in a rush to the polls as GOP turnout was down 36%. It’s been even worse for Democrats, who have cast 46% fewer ballots than in 2020.

Early voting was up in some rural, often small counties where even just an eight-ballot increase could bump turnout percentages by nearly 3%. But a number of races have been won in the past by small margins. 

Voter increases could make a substantial difference in some largely Republican counties. For example, the race for Senate District 18 in Sumner and Trousdale counties features Senate Republican Speaker Pro Tem Ferrell Haile of Gallatin and “Constitutional Conservative” Chris Spencer, also of Gallatin. Voting was up 19% in GOP primary voting in Sumner County, a 1,289-vote difference from 2020. The district also includes tiny Trousdale where early voting was down 56%.

Another hotly contested race is underway to succeed Republican Rep. Sam Whitson of Franklin. House District 65 is composed of part of Williamson County. Voting was down 9%, or 1,393 votes, compared with four years ago . The GOP primary features County Commission Chair Brian Beathard, attorney Michelle Foreman and businessman Lee Reeves, who has won Gov. Bill Lee’s endorsement as the Republican governor seeks voters to pass his statewide school voucher proposal. 

Over in rural West Tennessee’s House District 73, incumbent Rep. Chris Todd of Jackson faces a GOP contest against Jimmy Harrison. The challenger is the former mayor of Madison County, where the early Republican turnout was up 9% during early voting.

In another rural West Tennessee House contest, incumbent Rep. Rusty Grills of Newbern is facing off with Bubba Cobb of Dyersberg. The Obion County portion of the district saw nearly a 40% drop off in voting from four years ago while Dyer County was up by about 5%. Lake County was down by 19%.

In Blount County’s House District 20 contest — where Republicans Nick Bright, attorney, businessman Jason Emert and retired teacher and coach Tom Stinnett are running for the seat vacated by Rep. Bryan Richey — Republican early voting dropped 19%. Emert has been endorsed by Lee in the governor’s quest to pass a statewide school voucher bill.

In Upper East Tennessee’s Senate District 4, Senate Education Chair Jon Lundberg of Bristol and challenger Bobby Harshbarger are tangled in a ferocious race where spending has approached $2 million. Republican early voting was down 17% in Sullivan County and dropped by 25% in Hawkins County. 

Reps. Sam McKenzie faces Country Commissioner Dasha Lundy in the Democratic primary for House District 15 in Knox County, where voting has been down 24%. Fellow Democratic Rep. Yusuf Hakeem is being challenged by Chattanooga City Council member Demetrus Coonrod in Hamilton County, where primary voting has dropped 44% compared with four years ago.

Republican Gov. Bill Lee, who has decried the influence of a Washington-based PAC in a key state Senate race in northeastern Tennessee, doesn’t appear to have the same reservations when it comes to outside backing for candidates he supports.

After hosting a fundraiser for Sen. Jon Lundberg in May, Lee called it unacceptable that Republican primary challenger Bobby Harshbarger, the son of U.S. Rep. Diana Harshbarger, was benefiting from independent expenditures originating “from Washington, people from Washington, funded from Washington.”

Chalkbeat reports Lee struck a different tone when asked about the millions flowing into the state at the behest of national groups like the Club for Growth to back candidates who support the governor’s school voucher plans — and punish those who don’t. 

“We have a really smart electorate,” Lee said after a public appearance in Perry County on Friday. “And I believe in the power of people to sort through the information, as long as it’s accurate.” 

The School Freedom Fund, a PAC affiliated with the Club for Growth, has disclosed $3 million in expenditures so far. It is supporting three GOP candidates Lee has endorsed for open House seats: Jason Emert of Blount County ($541,200), Aron Maberry of Montgomery County ($668,400) and Lee Reeves in Williamson County ($773,000). It is seeking to punish voucher opponent Sen. Frank Niceley of Strawberry Plains in his Republican primary against challenger Jessie Seal ($522,200) in District 8. And it has plowed another $520,200 into defeating Rep. Bryan Richey of Maryville, even though he has suspended his campaign for the Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Art Swann.

Meanwhile, a political action committee at the center of a collusion complaint finally filed its pre-primary disclosure on Monday, four days after the deadline. The East Tennessee Conservatives PAC reported spending $516,920 in its effort to topple Lundberg in favor of Harshbarger, bringing its total to $606,400 so far this year.

The state attorney general’s office is investigating a complaint filed by Senate Republican Caucus Chair Ken Yager that the PAC was engaging in unlawful coordination because both it and Diana Harshbarger’s re-election campaign share the same treasurer. A similar complaint filed against Lundberg, the Senate Republican Caucus and Senate Speaker Randy McNally’s PAC was recently dismissed by the Tennessee Registry of Election Finance.

Lundberg has also benefited from outside spending and in-kind contributions to the tune of $1 million, primarily from McNally’s PAC ($357,200), the Senate Republican Caucus ($228,700), Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson’s PAC ($191,700), the state chapter of the American Federation for Children ($93,200), the Team Kid PAC ($84,600) and Americans for Prosperity ($65,700).

Lundberg is the chair of the Senate Education Committee and the lead sponsor of his chamber’s school voucher bill this year.  Both Diana and Bobby Harshbarger have been endorsed by Donald Trump, a fact heavily promoted by the congresswoman’s campaign even though she is unopposed in Thursday’s Republican primary. 

The Lundberg campaign has reported spending $459,400 this year, while Harshbarger has disclosed $376,600 in expenditures.