SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Now comes the Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump debate, looming as an important factor in deciding the presidential election and the nation’s course at home and in the world.
Q. Who will win?
A. It’s impossible to predict a debate winner with any certainty. The unexpected can happen in a presidential debate and often does.
Q. What unexpected could happen?
A. Like that June 27 debate when President Joe Biden bumbled terribly, unable to finish sentences and thoughts. Or like that 2020 debate when Trump raged incoherently. No doubt about the loser in those two debates, even if you don’t recall a single issue that was discussed.
Q. Well, in terms of predicting this time, aren’t most Harris backers confident it will be a prosecutor vs. felon show, with the jury of voters around the nation finding Trump guilty of fraud and unfit to return to the White House?
A. Yes. But prosecution efforts in real courts this year enabled Trump to convince a large segment of voters that he is a victim, not a villain. The debate will be viewed by voters in their living rooms, not in a courtroom. Harris could damage the favorable image she has been building if she comes across as a hostile prosecutor.
Q. How about the other side? Aren’t most MAGA backers confident that Trump will demolish Harris, making her look flustered, weak and unfit for the White House?
A. Yes. But ridiculing and insulting her could backfire if she doesn’t take the bait and remains calm and in control. Trump could damage the image he has been promoting as more presidential if he rages the way he did in that 2020 debate.
Q. Will the debate decide the presidential election?
A. That’s very unlikely, unless one of the candidates is as shockingly bad as Biden was in June — so bad that he dropped out of the race. It could be that the debate will have little effect on the outcome.
Q. Little effect? No winner?
A. Yes, just as a debate can have significant effect, some presidential debates have had little effect, with supporters of each candidate seeing their choice as a winner and nothing happening to cause any undecided voters to swing sharply in any direction. Also, a lot can still happen before Election Day to overcome reaction to the debate.
Q. What issue is likely to be most important in the debate?
A. How the candidates look will be more important than how they look at issues. Most voters know the general direction each side has taken on issues of importance to them. So they won’t be interested in a bunch of statistics or lengthy arguments to back up or shoot down some position. They will focus instead on the demeanor of the candidates as they take their expected stands.
Q. What will be important in the way they look?
A. Who does or doesn’t look confident, truthful, presidential, likable. It’s been said that voters sometimes evaluate which candidate they would prefer to have a beer with or have as a visitor at their home.
Q. What will viewers be looking for especially when Harris is on the TV screen?
A. Whether she seems presidential, ready to be commander in chief. Yes, the lingering question for some of a woman president. If she smiles as Trump attacks, will she look in control and more likable or will she look weak?
Q. What will they be looking for especially when Trump is on the TV screen?
A. Whether he looks too old, too unhinged to go back to the White House. So-called double haters had been disgusted with the Trump vs. Biden choice, finding both to be too “out of it.” The age issue clearly hurt Biden more, but now the focus of that will be on Trump.
Jack Colwell has covered Indiana politics for over five decades for the South Bend Tribune. Email him at [email protected].