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The Gist
Flush with billions in cash and a AAA bond rating, Georgia faces a pivotal moment in its fiscal future.
For more than a quarter of a century, Georgia has maintained an enviable reputation when it comes to managing its money. That’s how long the Peach State has had a AAA-bond rating from the U.S.’s top three credit-rating agencies. In layman’s terms, that’s like having an 850 credit score that gets you the best interest rate when buying a car or home. Similarly, the state of Georgia gets the best rates when borrowing money or issuing bonds to build things like roads, prisons, or buildings on a college campus.
Currently, only 14 states belong to the AAA bond rating club.
“The fact [that] we have maintained these coveted ratings for so long is a testament to our conservative approach to budgeting and governance, our pro-business policies, and especially the hardworking Georgians who make up our robust workforce,” said Gov. Brian Kemp, adding, “Job creators will continue to bring opportunities to the Peach State because they, like the rating agencies, know we are a safe bet.”
That safe bet is buoyed by nearly $12 billion sitting in state coffers — $5.2 billion in the state’s Revenue Shortfall Reserve and another $6.6 billion in unreserved, undesignated surplus.
With the 2023 legislative session set to convene in less than a month and the state’s fiscal year 2023 budget slated for fine-tuning, some say it’s a good time for the state to review how it sets its budget — and how it spends, or doesn’t spend, its money.
What’s Happening
While Georgia’s reveling in its stellar credit-rating and record $12 billion surplus, some state agencies have been operating in recent years with smaller budgets and fewer full-time staff. Education and health care, for instance, bore the brunt of budget cuts in fiscal year 2021 to the combined tune of nearly $1 billion.
“Undeniably, our current level of spending is much lower than what we're collecting, and what we're likely to continue to collect in tax revenue,” said Danny Kanso, director of legislative strategy and senior fiscal analyst at The Georgia Budget & Policy Institute.
Kanso, who wrote a report in August analyzing the state’s record surplus, said the state “has considerable room to adjust its revenue estimate upward,” to spend more.
But fiscal conservatives point to the money the state has spent: $1 billion for 10 months worth of gas tax holidays and another $2 billion in income tax rebates and cash assistance to low-income residents who receive Medicaid, PeachCare for Kids, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or the state’s Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.
In addition, Kemp is promising another tax refund in 2023, pending legislative approval.
While the state is flush with cash that state officials insist is necessary to address unforeseen emergencies, Georgians are struggling with the fallout of inflation and are facing a possible recession next year.
The question for some, then, is: Why should I care?
The Frugal Uncle
Think of Georgia as a frugal uncle who’s lived below his means for years even when times didn’t call for it. He pays for that fishing trip or vacation with cash, not credit — much to the chagrin of his family who needle him about his frugalness.
When times get tough, this frugal Georgian keeps trips to the grocery store and utility usage to a minimum, and as such, his austerity has helped him build a healthy savings and a respectable investment portfolio while also socking away money for emergencies. In addition, his carefulness and frugality has enabled him to maintain an impeccable credit score that affords him the best interest rate on the family’s mortgage.
“The state does a good job of not biting off more than it can chew when it comes to spending,” said Kyle Wingfield, president and chief executive of the Atlanta-based conservative think tank Georgia Public Policy Foundation. “The bond rating agencies believe the state is well-managed. It also reflects that we have a very stable fiscal environment.”
State government bond ratings give banks and other lenders a sense of whether a state or municipality can pay its debts. The higher the rating — AAA is the highest — the less chance of default. Georgia has had a AAA bond from the three major rating agencies — Fitch Group, Moody’s Investor Services and Standard and Poor’s — for more than 25 years. In addition to bragging rights, Georgia’s stellar credit rating allows the state to get the best possible rates when it goes to market to sell state bonds.
Tony West, deputy state director for Americans for Prosperity Georgia, agrees. “It’s an enviable position to be in,” West said. “It shows most of the country that we carefully manage the people’s money.”
As Georgia’s fiscal economist, Jeff Dorfman is one of Kemp’s key advisors. The state’s cautious money management is sacrosanct, he says.
“One thing that's very important, and the governor insists on this, is it [spending the reserves] has to be a one-time thing,” Dorfman said. “We can't take these extra monies and spend them on an annual recurring thing because then when the money's gone, now you're burdening the taxpayers and you're gonna have to raise taxes to keep paying for that.”
Explains Dorfman, “That's why we're looking at water and sewer systems and rural broadband and a lot of things like that where we can pay upfront costs with the money we have now. If we can do infrastructure investments and lower our ongoing expense structure, this is our ultimate goal.”
Why It Matters
In August, the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute (GBPI), a liberal Atlanta-based nonprofit that analyzes tax policies and proposed budgets, released a report on the state’s record surplus.
“The state has prioritized growing surplus accounts over funding for programs, services and workforce,” states the August 2 report, “With Record Surplus, Georgia Stands at a Crossroads Ahead of Pivotal Budget Session,” written by Kanso.
Even though Georgia is expected to see continued revenue growth, it continues to spend less per resident than it did before the Great Recession 14 years ago, Kanso wrote in the report. “Even after accounting for a potential economic recession and the effects of tapering federal spending, it appears that consecutive years of conservative revenue estimates have compounded such that Georgia could raise significantly more than it currently plans to spend in the upcoming year.”
According to the report, in fiscal year 2023, Georgia plans to spend about $1.3 billion less, or about $121 less per resident, than it did before the Great Recession, when Georgia’s budget was upended by spending cuts the state made in response to weakened revenue collections.
The report urged state leaders “to make long-deferred investments and make up ground lost to over a decade of austerity.
“This means that even if state revenue collections come in below the revenue estimate set by the governor, Georgia’s existing reserves are almost certain to be more than sufficient to cover the difference,” the report said.
When asked if Georgia is hoarding money, Kanso replied: “that remains to be seen in how we are going to adjust [the budget] in the upcoming legislative session.”
Former state lawmaker Eric Johnson sees it differently.
“You've got to be prepared to have some savings for your emergencies,” Johnson, former president pro tem of the state senate, told State Affairs. “The economy is booming now, but I've been through two downturns where we've had to cut and that's a painful process. Look how long it took to get the education funding back up.
“The state’s got the resources now but everybody’s anticipating a recession in the next year or so. You’ve got to be able to live through the downturns without the minimal amount of cuts to programs,” said Johnson.
While Georgia's large surplus is not usual, this year’s record surplus has emerged from other unexpected circumstances.
Georgia – like the rest of the country – saw unprecedented surpluses last year, thanks to a booming stock market that led to higher-than-expected tax revenues, especially in capital gains taxes, Dorfman said.
“The stock market did tremendously well in 2021. In April 2022 when everybody filed their 2021 taxes, we collected an extra $3 billion in capital gains taxes on stock market profits. And literally, I mean that came in like a week or so right around the filing deadline.
“It happened to every state and to the federal government,” he added. “Everybody got more taxes than they predicted because of the stock market profits.”
Billions in federal pandemic aid also helped grow reserves.
Of the $5.2 trillion the U.S. government committed in response to the pandemic since early 2020, about one-sixth went to state governments for the public health emergency and to boost their economic recovery, according to Pew Trust. The federal government gave more than $800 billion in grants to states through six pieces of COVID-19 legislation. Georgia received more than $17 billion in COVID-related relief.
States saw their collective rainy day funds grow by $37.7 billion, about 50 percent from the previous year, “driving the total held among all states to a record of $114.6 billion,” according to Pew.
What’s Next
While it’s tempting to take the $12 billion surplus and splurge, “We don’t just spend the money because we have the money,” Dorfman said, citing California as a cautionary tale.
Flush with a record $98 billion surplus last year, California now faces a $25 billion deficit next fiscal year. “They gave a ton of it away and they spent a lot of it, including some on continuing expenses, and as our [U.S.] economy slowed down, they got less revenue than they thought and now they’re short,” Dorfman said, adding, “We certainly don't need to have $12 billion to get the AAA bond rating because we had it when we had $2 billion but we're much better off with the larger reserves we have now.”
A AAA-rating is so sacred that some states refuse to spend their largesse for fear of losing their impeccable standing.
Research by Pew found that “even in states with the highest rating, policymakers often are unsure about how best to manage their rainy-day funds to earn or keep high credit ratings. As a result, some state officials are reluctant to tap reserves even during recessions for fear of a ratings downgrade.”
Former Baltimore state Sen. Barbara Hoffman said in Pew’s 2017 report, “Rainy Day Funds and State Credit Ratings”: “We never use ours, and that’s one of the reasons we have a triple-A rating in good economic times and bad.”
Maryland is one of the 14 states with a AAA rating. In addition to Georgia and Maryland, the other states are Indiana, Delaware, Iowa, Florida, Tennessee, South Dakota, Virginia, North Carolina, Utah, Texas, Virginia and Missouri.
William Ratchford, former director of the Maryland General Assembly’s fiscal services department, noted in the report that to most legislators, the purpose of the rainy-day fund is to maintain the AAA rating. “If we have future needs, we’ll deal with that. But it’s never been, ‘Well we can always use the rainy day fund.’ It just isn’t how they approach it,” he said.
But Georgia’s not going to keep its $12 billion reserves forever, Dorfman said. “We’ll take our time and spend it wisely and make sure we are very clear-eyed and realistic in our revenue forecasts.”
In Case You Missed It
TEACHERS, BRIDGES, TAX REFUNDS: WHAT GEORGIA’S $5 BILLION SURPLUS CAN BUY
GEORGIA’S RECORD $5B BUDGET SURPLUS SETS UP HIGH STAKES LEGISLATIVE SESSION
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Putting long lines in the rearview: driver services continues technology update
The Gist
The days of standing in long lines to get or renew a driver’s license may soon be in the rearview mirror for good.
Over the next month, Georgia drivers will continue to see significant updates in services as the Georgia Department of Driver Services continues its push to modernize through state-of-the-art technology and to cut back on long wait times caused by a shortage of workers and backlogs due to Covid-19.
What’s Happening
The department will roll out about 20 kiosks in its metro Atlanta offices where motorists can get or renew driver’s licenses, replace lost or stolen ones and record address changes. The rollout is a pilot program and will be extended to the rest of the state later, department spokesperson Susan Sports told State Affairs.
At the same time, the kiosks you use at Kroger and Publix to renew your car tags “are being updated and modified to add the driver’s license [renewal services] to them,” Sports said. Initially, those kiosks will renew licenses and ID cards. More services will be added later. The grocery store kiosks are run by the state Department of Revenue.
Driver services has also taken steps to make traveling easier for Georgians.
The department now allows Georgians to add their driver’s license or state ID to Apple Wallet on iPhone and Apple Watch, making check-in at airports quick, easy and secure. It is not intended as a replacement for a physical copy of your license or ID but it can speed up the process at TSA checkpoints. Android users will soon have a similar option, Sports said. Georgians meanwhile also have the option of renewing their driver’s license online.
Despite the online presence, some people still prefer to come into the office, Sports said. Now, they’ll have the option of using a self-serve kiosk rather than having to stand in a long line.
Why It Matters
The state is spending close to $2 million to add the kiosks and update services for Georgia drivers, an initiative driven by fewer department staff and greater demand for quicker services.
“The kiosks especially should help with the agency’s workforce issues,” DDS Commissioner Spencer R. Moore said. “If you have a self-service kiosk that is handling that renewal customer coming in, not having to take a break or a lunch or take vacation, it’s going to really offset some of those staffing challenges that we have.”
The new technology isn’t just for giving short-handed staff some help. It also is intended to head off a potential rise in wait times once a round of license expirations kicks in over the next two years, Sports said.
“Having a self-service kiosk option will save wait time for customers,” she said. “In turn, the driver examiners will be able to assist those customers that cannot be served in any way but in person. It will save customers time because if they use the kiosk, they do not have to fill out the required ‘application for service’ or take a ticket number for service as is required for all customers visiting in person.”
While as many as 45 Department of Motor Vehicle agencies in the United States were using some type of self-service kiosks in 2021, there is still a large number of government agencies that have not yet taken advantage of the technology, according to Kiosk Marketplace.
What’s Next?
Meanwhile in Georgia, the Department of Driver Services’ kiosks are currently wrapping up the test phase, Sports said, and should be rolling out over the next 30 days at the 65 DDS offices statewide and in grocery stores.
“That’s the wave of the future and our customers are on the go. They want more options,” said Sports. “In the old days, you’d go to the DDS and you would take a lounge chair and you’d take a book and you knew you were going to be there all day. So now … our service goal statewide is less than 30 minutes.”
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Header image: City of Warner Robins former Police Chief John Wagner poses with a Georgia driver’s license. (Credit: Georgia Department of Drivers Services)
Lawmakers plan another run at rent control legislation
The Gist
ATLANTA — Skyrocketing rents and punitive fees by homeowners associations that place some Georgia residents at risk of losing their homes are among the targets of several housing-related bills that Sen. Donzella James, D-Atlanta, and other members of the Georgia Legislative Black Caucus hope to revive in the next legislative session. Four such housing bills stalled in the Senate this year.
What’s Happening
The Senate Urban Affairs Committee met Wednesday to discuss the proposed legislation designed to protect renters from sharply escalating rent prices, and what some senators and presenters described as unfair fees, eviction and foreclosure processes imposed by property owners and private associations that manage homes, apartments and condominiums.
James, the committee chair, is the sponsor of SB 125, which would repeal state law enacted in the 1980s that prevents local governments from regulating rent. Georgia is among 30 states in the U.S. that prohibit rent control by municipalities or counties, and among several states now considering repealing such laws.
“We’re attempting to lift that ban so cities and counties … can work with residents to stop rental leases and bills that are doubling and tripling and causing foreclosures and evictions,” said James. She noted that as the cost of living increases, “we’re seeing more families struggling to pay rent in metro and rural areas, and consequently many of those people can’t afford it anymore and have become homeless, or are staying in day hotels when they can afford to do that.”
Two other housing-related bills were also on the agenda. SB 29 would limit the ways homeowners, condo and property associations can penalize people for nonpayment of fees, and requires them to seek arbitration before placing liens on a property. And Senate Resolution 37 would create a study committee to let lawmakers take a comprehensive look at the policies and practices of such property associations.
Why It Matters
Rents have increased sharply in Georgia in recent years. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, fair market rents — the monthly cost of rent for standard-quality units in a local housing market — increased by an average of 24% from 2019 to 2023 in the U.S. In Georgia, fair market rents increased by 33% over that time. A one-bedroom apartment in Georgia now averages $1,115, and a two-bedroom is $1,283.
Rental costs are considerably higher in some Georgia cities, especially those where out-of-state private equity firms have purchased large numbers of residential properties and jacked up rents. In Atlanta, the fair market rent for a one-bedroom is now $1,375 and a two-bedroom is $1,553.
Some apartments cost much more. Nothing in Georgia law limits how much a landlord can raise the rent.
The Urban Affairs committee heard from several tenants whose rents have increased precipitously. Among them was Gladys Dancy, 83, who lives at Galleria Manor Senior Apartments, an affordable housing complex in Smyrna. She said when she moved in 10 years ago, the rent for her two-bedroom apartment was $780, and has since climbed to $908. In July, she received a notice from the building’s owners that her rent will rise to $1,215 in October, a 39% increase.
“They’re pushing me out,” said Dancy, adding that her only income is from Social Security. Dancy has a leg impairment that requires her to use a walker.
Noting that she lives two blocks from Truist Park, the Atlanta Braves stadium, which was an undeveloped wooded area when she moved in, she said, “All the rents around here have gone way up, and now they say they’re switching from an affordable property to market price. Is that legal?”
Other people testified about negative experiences with homeowners associations.
One man said he was fined $4,000 by his HOA for cars parked on the street near his home, even though he doesn’t own a vehicle. His neighbor said the HOA doled out $1,600 fines for covenant violations such as lack of shutters on windows and has placed $10,000 liens on multiple tenants’ homes.
David Washington, a real estate broker, said he specializes in helping people faced with foreclosure to stay in their homes. He said he recently worked with a 91-year-old client whose property was foreclosed on for delinquent HOA dues and related late fees, even though the woman had never missed a mortgage payment.
“Georgia is a creditor-friendly state,” said Washington. The state’s legal code related to rent “is not designed for if life happens,” he said. Even if over a 30-year period a homeowner has a sterling payment history, an HOA does not take costly life events into account the way that some loan companies do, offering forbearance, he noted. “Whether it’s COVID, a car accident, a divorce, a death — if you owe $5,000 to an HOA, they will foreclose on you,” he said. “And the law allows it.”
James noted that small liens issued by HOAs or banks can quickly lead to foreclosure, if not paid or legally resolved within a few months.
“Once you get $2,000 worth of liens, that house can go up on the courthouse steps and be sold from under you,” she said.
Rep. Billy Mitchell, D-Stone Mountain, the House Democratic Caucus chair, told committee members that the “draconian” Georgia law that permits HOAs to foreclose on a property because of overdue HOA fees is “bad legislation and I think we should join the overwhelming majority of states which do not allow that.”
Preventing and reducing evictions is another legislative focus of the committee.
Mableton resident Alonzo Williams told the committee that he and his disabled mother were evicted from their apartment after the landlord doubled the rent during the pandemic. He said he works in education and his mother has a fixed income. “We struggled mightily to pay it, but we couldn’t,” he said, adding that they are now living in temporary housing, and so far unable to find a rental unit they can afford.
Elizabeth Appley, an attorney and fair housing advocate, said that as of April, 14% of Georgians were behind on rent, according to the National Equity Atlas, a data site run by PolicyLink, a research and advocacy firm. Those Georgians owing rent included 181,000 households, 72% of which were low-income families. More than half were households with children.
The average rent debt in Georgia is $1,400, said Appley, noting that that amount is considerably less than the cost of eviction to local communities in the state, which averages $11,200 per eviction, according to a University of Arizona law school analysis. That eviction tally takes into account the cost of emergency shelter, medical, welfare and juvenile delinquency costs.
Legislation to give local communities more control over rental costs, as well as to provide more tenant protections statewide is needed, Appley said.
Besides the rent control and property association-related bills, she encouraged the Senate committee to support HB 404, the Safe at Home Act, which would put a two-month cap on rental security deposits and require landlords to give tenants at least three days’ notice and the opportunity to pay overdue rent and fees before eviction proceedings can start. The bill unanimously passed the House but was not called for a vote in the Senate last session.
“While the idea of rent control may appear an attractive solution to the affordable housing crisis, it is critical to understand its counterproductive and damaging consequences,” said Stephen Davis, government affairs director for the Atlanta Apartment Association.
National research shows that rent control policies reduce housing supply, lower property values and disincentivizes new construction of apartments, he said.
Davis pointed to a 2021 St. Paul, Minnesota, rent control bill that capped annual rent increases to 3% and led, he said, to an 80% drop in building permits for multifamily housing. Overall, new housing starts in St. Paul decreased by 30% over the next year, resulting in an amendment of the law in 2022 that allows some landlords to make larger rent increases.
Adding additional housing units to a market is the best way to address housing costs in communities with climbing rents, Davis said.
“The key is to increase housing inventory,” he said. “But most local governments are installing additional regulations and burdens on development. They’ve raised millage rates and impact fees. … Every condition put on a new development has a cost,” which is often passed on to the renter, he said.
What’s Next
SB 125, the rent control bill, did not move in the State and Local Governmental Operations committee last session. Sen. Frank Ginn, R-Danielsville, who chairs the committee, told State Affairs he does not support state regulation of local rent policies.
“I think that should be between the owner of the property and the renter,” Ginn said. “I don’t think the government should interfere in that process. There are other things that we can do to help local governments to lower the cost of housing, and to address things that drive the cost of housing up.”
James said she and other legislators are inclined to consolidate and amend several housing-related bills still alive in both chambers. She told State Affairs that requiring mediation before evictions and foreclosures can occur and appointing a state ombudsman to give people involved in housing disputes “a place to take their complaints before they lose their homes” are two key elements that should be included in housing legislation to be pursued in 2024.
James said the Urban Affairs Committee plans to meet at least once more prior to the start of the next legislative session in January.
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Header photo: Smyrna resident Gladys Dancy, 83, told the Senate Urban Affairs Committee members that her landlord plans to raise her rent by 39% in October. (Credit: Jill Jordan Sieder)
New Georgia law mandates active shooter drills in public schools
THE GIST ATLANTA — Georgia K-12 public schools have been conducting informal active shooter drills for years, just like they have for fire, tornadoes and other emergencies. But earlier this year, state lawmakers made the safety precaution against active shooters and other intruders mandatory. Gov. Brian Kemp signed The Safe Schools Act into law in …
Gov. Kemp suspends fuel taxes
ATLANTA — Gov. Brian Kemp suspended the state’s tax on gas and diesel fuel today, declaring “a state of emergency due to the 40-year-high inflation and negative economic conditions felt by hardworking Georgians as a result of policies coming out of Washington, D.C.”
The governor’s executive order goes into effect Wednesday and will remain in effect until Oct. 12. Kemp can only suspend the tax one month at a time as part of the executive order.
Kemp said President Joe Biden’s economic policies made the executive order necessary.
“From runaway federal spending to policies that hamstring domestic energy production, all Bidenomics has done is take more money out of the pockets of the middle class,” Kemp said. “While high prices continue to hit family budgets, hardworking Georgians deserve real relief and that’s why I signed an executive order today to deliver it directly to them at the pump.”
Kemp cited analysis from Moody’s Analytics from August that said U.S. consumers are spending $709 more per month than two years ago and $202 more each month than last year to buy the same goods and services.
Georgians will save 31.2 cents on a gallon of gasoline and 35 cents on diesel fuel, he said, adding that Georgians saved roughly $1.7 billion at the pump when fuel taxes were suspended from March to December last year.
House Speaker Jon Burns, R-Newington, supported Kemp’s order and also framed it in a political context.
“I applaud Governor Kemp’s suspension of motor fuel taxes to keep our people and our economy moving despite Washington’s inaction on rising fuel prices,” said Burns. “Georgia’s success story is no accident — it is the result of conservative policies enacted to keep Georgia the nation’s best state for business.”
According to AAA, the average cost of a gallon of regular gas in Georgia on Tuesday was $3.57, up from $3.24 a year ago. Diesel fuel was $4.35 a gallon, down from $4.69 a year ago.
Overall, inflation has been ebbing in the U.S. over the past year. A report from the Federal Reserve in August noted that while the consumer price index (CPI) in July was up 3.3% from a year earlier, that level is far below the peak rate of 8.9% in the 12 months that ended in June 2022.
Energy prices in the South have decreased 12.8% from July 2022 to July 2023, largely due to a 20% drop in the cost of gasoline, while food prices rose 5.1%.
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Header photo: Gov. Kemp’s executive order to suspend fuel taxes will save Georgians 31 cents on a gallon of regular gasoline and 35 cents on diesel fuel through mid-October. (Credit: Jill Jordan Sieder).