They Said It (07.25.24)

Posted on by David Jacobs

“There’s not a single Democrat who does not feel better this afternoon than they did this morning.” —Democratic strategist and pundit James Carville, on President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, in The Advocate

“I would color that doubtful.” —Former Congressman Cedric Richmond, on stories he’s being vetted for vice president on the Democratic ticket, to Fox 8

“[The task force] seems to have not even done what was required of it — which was producing a report recommending ways that the Legislature could address the potential negative impacts of [carbon capture and sequestration] on communities.” —Jackson Voss, climate policy coordinator for the Alliance for Affordable Energy, talking about a carbon capture and sequestration legislative committee in The Illuminator

“We have a governor who’s behind Northwestern. He’s powerful and when he gives you his word, he means it.” —Associate Supreme Court Justice James Genovese, touting his connection to Gov. Jeff Landry prior to becoming president of Northwestern State University, in The Illuminator

“There’s an open-door policy everywhere at Northwestern. I could never ask [Genovese] something comfortably.” —Lyla Monroe, an online student who serves as an orientation leader at Northwestern State, in The Illuminator

“It’s actually a flex for Democrats who can have more influence with Johnson if he knows his continued time as speaker is, in part, thanks to them.” —Political consultant Mary-Patricia Wray on the fact that Democrats did not field a challenger to Speaker Mike Johnson, in The Illuminator

Our History: The birth of Abbeville

Posted on by David Jacobs

On today’s date in 1843, Père Antoine Désiré Mégret, a Capuchin missionary, purchased the land that was to become Abbeville for $900. 

Formerly called La Chapelle, Father Megret named the town after Abbéville, his hometown in the Picardy region of France. 

Two people were living on the land at that time, Joseph LeBlanc and his wife Isabelle Broussard, whose former home Megret converted into the first Church. The original church burned down in 1854 and St. Mary Magdalen Catholic Church now stands at the same location.

The residents who settled the town were descendants of the Acadians from Nova Scotia who moved to the area around 1766 to 1775.  It was incorporated in 1850 and is the parish seat of Vermilion Parish, which calls itself “the most Cajun place on Earth,” claiming the highest concentration of residents with Acadian ancestry.

Father Megret modeled his original plan for the village after a French Provincial village. In a map he made in 1846, the town was 38 to 40 acres, bounded on the north by St. Victor Boulevard, on the south by Lafayette Boulevard, on the east by “the Sisters of Charity,” and on the west by Bayou Vermilion.

Around 12,000 people live in Abbeville today. A statue in memory of Father Megret stands in Magdalen Square downtown, near the Vermillion Parish Courthouse. 

Abbeville is home to several festivals, including the Giant Omelette Celebration, which will be held for the 40th time this year on Nov. 2 and 3. 

According to legend, when Napoleon and his army were traveling through the south of France, they decided to rest for the night near the town of Bessieres. Napoleon feasted on an omelette prepared by a local innkeeper. 

He liked it so much, he ordered the townspeople to gather all the eggs in the village and to prepare a huge omelette for his army the next day. From this beginning, the omelette became a tradition to feed the poor of the village at Easter. 

In April of 1985, three members of the Chamber of Commerce (Emery “Bichon” Toups, Tracy Kays and Sheri Meaux) attended the Easter Omelette Festival in Bessieres. They returned home with the determination to bring Abbeville closer to its French Heritage by hosting an omelette festival and joining the sisterhood of cities that celebrate the omelette. 

The event kicks off on Saturday morning, and on Sunday afternoon, some 5,000 eggs (plus one for each year the festival has been held) are used to create a massive omelette. Other ingredients include 50 pounds of onions, 75 bell peppers, 52 pounds of butter and 15 pounds of crawfish tails.  

A Children’s Omelette, featuring a mere 600 eggs, also is prepared by junior chefs as part of the festivities. 

Editor’s note: The information for this piece came from the City of Abbeville and the Giant Omelette Celebration. 

News You Can Use (07.25.24)

Posted on by David Jacobs

—Campaigns & Elections: How to craft the perfect fundraising message post-RNC

—Campaigns & Elections: Deepfake detection effort aims to help campaigns authenticate digital content

—Governing: Homeless camp cleanups aren’t a permanent solution

—Governing: The escalating argument over historic preservation

—The Advocate: New Louisiana laws could make it tougher to vote absentee

—The Advocate: La. Supreme Court grants public access to Stanford Trust Ponzi trial

—Illuminator: Fines might not deter abuse at La. facilities caring for the disabled

—Fox 8: Louisiana to ban cell phone usage in school; some teachers question enforcement

—The Advocate: Louisiana students still behind in math and science after COVID, 2024 LEAP scores show

—Government Technology: Lack of broadband may be stifling rural Louisiana business

Field Notes (07.25.24)

Posted on by David Jacobs

— SPECIAL SESH DEATH KNELL? Speaker Phillip DeVillier has informed House members that a special session in August is off the table, though related oversight meetings are planned. So it appears the Article VII-focused special session that Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson had urged lawmakers to consider may suffer the same fate as Gov. Jeff Landry’s proposed constitutional convention. 

— PSC COMMISH BACKS CONTROVERSIAL TRANSMISSION RULE: Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis has co-authored an op-ed touting new federal rules about transmission planning, and is the only regulator from the Deep South to add his name to a letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission expressing support for the rule. Meanwhile, the PSC has asked the Fifth Circuit to review the rule; Lewis says staff and consultants for the commission made the filing without his prior knowledge, and he will object to ratifying the decision in August. The rule requires transmission companies to look at least 20 years ahead when planning projects and update those plans every five years, among other changes. Supporters say it facilitates better regional planning to meet the energy grid’s future needs, while detractors say it usurps state authority to benefit clean energy developers. 

— CAMERON BACKS JP: Senate President Cameron Henry has endorsed Sen. Jean-Paul Coussan’s bid to replace Craig Greene on the Public Service Commission. Coussan also announced the support of Jefferson Parish Sheriff Joe Lopinto. Republican Julie Quinn, a former state senator, and Democrat Nick Laborde also are in the race. 

— GREEN, HUGHES ATTEND SUMMIT FOR RISING LAWMAKERS: Rep. Kyle Green and Rep. Jason Hughes planned to attend this week’s Future Summit in Washington D.C., a conference hosted by Future Caucus “for the country’s most promising, effective young lawmakers” who have shown the ability to work across the aisle, the organization announced. Hughes and Sen. Thomas Pressly co-chair the Louisiana Future Caucus, the group says.

LaPolitics Q&A: Adam Knapp

Posted on by David Jacobs

LaPolitics: Why was the Louisiana Economic Development overhaul needed? How was the department falling short?

Adam Knapp, CEO of The Committee of 100 for Economic Development: Louisiana has had some really important economic development announcements recently but, overall, the state’s performance has not been as competitive as other southern states. LED’s strategy and structure hadn’t been evaluated in many years, and other states have incorporated more flexibility, economic strategic planning and private sector leadership into their efforts. Moreover, the state’s strategy and approach seem to change with every governor, and you don’t see that with some of the better-performing states. 

What are the most important changes you would like to see in LED’s new strategic plan?

First, I think the fact that there will be an economic development strategic plan will be an important change, one with a private sector advisory board looking at the details and holding the state accountable to its goals.  There’s a lot of discussion that the state should look more to the metropolitan regions’ plans and coordinate to support them rather than having a top-down direction. Also, the hope is that it won’t simply be LED’s strategic plan, but Louisiana’s plan, outlining a whole-of-government approach to economic growth. 

What is the most encouraging bright spot in Louisiana’s economy right now?

Investments and projects tied to the future of energy continue to be hot, and geographically spread out from north Louisiana and CENLA to the I-10 corridor. The climate tech/clean tech space also pops up as a big opportunity in entrepreneurship. In other areas of the tech sector like data centers, there are also some interesting advantages for parts of Louisiana.

What is the biggest cause for economic concern? 

We aren’t investing enough as a state in site development and site readiness, or in business development outreach.

Do you believe a tax-focused special session, or even a constitutional convention, is needed this year? 

The Committee of 100 has been calling for comprehensive tax reform since 2015’s major study of the state tax code that we funded, done by the Tax Foundation. It’s still available online if anyone wants to dig into its (still relevant) recommendations. Whether this year or next year, a tax-focused special session would be an incredible chance to make Louisiana’s tax code simpler and more competitive. In the same step, Louisiana could and should resolve the fiscal cliff responsibly without doing lasting damage to higher education and healthcare. 

These Louisiana cities will elect mayors this year

Posted on by David Jacobs

Nine Louisiana cities will choose a chief executive this fall, though in some cases, the race to be mayor is already over. In other instances, the action is just starting…

— In East Baton Rouge, which has a consolidated city-parish government, two former state lawmakers have been running for months now. Incumbent Sharon Weston Broome, who is seeking her third and final term as mayor-president, is facing a challenge from erstwhile ally Ted James, but the two Democrats will have to work to make the runoff in a crowded, nine-person field. Woody Jenkins, who chairs the East Baton Rouge GOP, is promoting Emile “Sid” Edwards, a longtime high school football coach and former athletics director, as an alternative to the high-profile Democrats, as is Scott McKay of The Hayride. Edwards is likely the best known Republican in the race, Jenkins says. The other Republicans running are Tambra “Tammy” Cook, Nathaniel Hearn and Steve Myers. Running as independents are Ryan “Badd Biddness” Carter, William “Champagne” Roundtree and Gregory Taylor. 

— Now that Gonzales Mayor Barney Arceneaux has stepped down to take a job with the Louisiana Municipal Association, four Black Democrats are vying for the open seat in a growing city that’s almost half white. Of the sitting City Council members running, Timothy Riley is considered somewhat of an outsider, while Harold Stewart is thought to be more aligned with the local establishment. Terance Irvin, a former council member who challenged Arcenaux in 2016, is pursuing the job again. Kemlyn Bailey Lomas, a fourth-generation city resident touting what she describes as “over 20 years experience in municipal, parish, and state government administrations,” rounds out the field. 

— In New Iberia, incumbent Mayor Freddie DeCourt did not draw a challenger. Morgan City Mayor Lee Dragna and Walker Mayor Jimmy Watson also have been reelected without a fight. All three men are Republicans. 

— Leroy Sullivan is seeking his sixth term as mayor of Donaldsonville. He faces fellow Democrat Glenn Price, who also ran for the post in 2020. 

— Plaquemine Mayor Ed Reeves is retiring from public service. Democrat Timothy L. “Timmy” Martinez is seeking to replace him, along with John “JB” Barker, Tonya Harmason and Terry Higgins, who are all listed as “no party” or independent. 

— Port Allen Mayor Richard Lee also is retiring. Democrats Lance Joseph and Clyde Robertson Sr. are vying to replace him, as is independent Terecita Pollard Pattan. 

— Paul Abrusley and Gwen Alsburry, both Democrats, and “no party” candidate David Vidrine are looking to succeed the retiring Gene Paul as mayor of Oakdale. 

Election Day is Nov. 5, with runoffs culminating on Dec. 7. 

THE KAMALA FACTOR: How the prez ballot will (or won’t) impact Louisiana elections

Posted on by David Jacobs

Just a week ago, President Joe Biden’s quest to hold the White House appeared to be, if not a lost cause, at least trending in that direction. Democrats were starting to panic. Many worried the lack of enthusiasm at the top of the ticket would lead to a bloodbath all over the ballot. 

Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris quickly taking his place, “injects rocket fuel on the Democratic side,” said Albert Samuels, who chairs the political science department at Southern University.

The party needs that enthusiasm, he said, particularly among young voters. “Some people just weren’t excited about a race between two old white guys,” Samuels said. “That can have a spillover effect on these down-ballot races.” 

Almost 40,000 Americans registered to vote in the 48 hours after Biden suspended his campaign and endorsed Harris, 83 percent of whom were people aged 18 to 34, according to Vote.org. That’s the most we’ve seen this cycle for a two-day period, and the timing suggests most of those voters lean Democrat. 

Will it matter in Louisiana? Samuels is doubtful, and most of the folks interviewed this week by LaPolitics agree. Nonetheless, elections are unique events capable of unscheduled surprises.

At the very least, Democratic activists here have cause for enthusiasm, for the first time in a while. That, in turn, could produce some ripple effects in contests well below the top of the ballot. 

Louisiana is solidly in the column of former President Donald Trump, and no one here thinks a Democrat from California will move that needle.

“If Louisiana had statewide elections… [Harris] could make a difference,” said Dillard University professor and Fox 8 political pundit Robert Collins, adding that running on the same ballot as Harris would have guaranteed former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson a spot in 2023 gubernatorial runoff. “But since our state elections are off-year elections, it won’t make a difference.” 

Harris’ candidacy could boost Democratic turnout in congressional races, noted Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis. That may give extra comfort to supporters of Congressman Troy Carter and Sen. Cleo Fields.

“Though most Louisiana voters understand that their vote for Harris won’t secure Louisiana’s electoral votes for the presumptive Democratic nominee, it certainly provides incentive to vote, and to vote down ballot as well,” said consultant Mary-Patricia Wray of Top Drawer Strategies, who’s working for the Fields campaign. 

That turnout bump for congressional races could be important in certain local contests. For example, Lewis pointed to a seat on the Baton Rouge-based Court of Appeal, where Kelly Balfour, a white male Republican, is facing Eboni Johnson Rose, a Black female Democrat. 

Where things get really interesting is in the East Baton Rouge race for mayor-president, which could become the most closely-watched Louisiana election this cycle. Current Mayor Sharon Weston Broome is running in a crowded field that includes Ted James, a well-funded former state lawmaker who also happens to be a fellow Black Democrat.

So far, the conventional wisdom is that most Black voters in EBR are “sticking with Sharon,” Lewis said, which means higher Black turnout could benefit the incumbent. On the other hand, James has a personal relationship with Harris and served as Louisiana co-chair for her 2019 presidential campaign. 

“It’s exciting for me personally,” James said, adding he would have a line to the White House if she wins. “I consider her a friend. When I was in the hospital with COVID, she called me every single day.” 

Consultant Kristine Breithaupt predicted rising Democratic turnout will benefit Democrat incumbents, including Carter and Broome, who are her clients. “I’ve never seen Democrats fall in line so efficiently in my life,” she said. “The enthusiasm is electric, especially with Gen Z voters flooding social media with grassroots content.” 

All of this presupposes Democrats have the right to swap out their presidential candidate after the primaries are over. Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested Republicans will mount a long-shot effort to challenge the move, at least in certain jurisdictions. 

“Every state has its own system,” Johnson told ABC News, “and in some of these, it’s not possible to simply just switch out a candidate.”

Louisiana does not appear to be one of those states where the switch would be problematic. Joel Watson with Secretary of State Nancy Landry’s office said their team just needs the nominee’s name by 4:30 p.m. on Aug. 23 — the day after the Democratic National Convention concludes — to have it on the November ballot. 

Of course, presidential elections have the highest turnout. While 2020 was the overall high-water mark in Louisiana, Black turnout was higher for former President Barack Obama’s two wins. 

To participate in the November election in Louisiana, the deadline to register in person or by mail is Oct. 7, though you can register online through Oct. 15. Early voting is Oct. 18 through Oct. 29 (excluding Sundays) from 8:30 a.m. until 6 p.m.

Biting the hand that feeds? Cepicky in candidate forum calls governor’s voucher bill ‘terrible’

Posted on by Erik Schelzig

State Rep. Scott Cepicky in a candidate forum at a Maury County church this week described fellow Republican Gov. Bill Lee’s proposal to create a statewide school voucher program as “terrible.” The Culleoka Republican’s words came after the governor had publicly endorsed Cepicky in his efforts to fend off a primary challenge from County Commissioner Ray Jeter.

“The governor’s bill — and I’m not afraid to say this — was terrible,” Cepicky said at the forum. “It was wide open. It would have probably added a billion dollars to the budget. It would have put us in the same pitfall as Arizona is in. And so that bill never made it out of committee.”

“We said: ‘Absolutely not,’” Cepicky said. “The Senate had a version that really wasn’t much better.”

Scott Cepicky and Ray Jeter

Lee’s “Education Freedom Scholarships” proposal would have created a statewide school voucher program, with 10,000 vouchers reserved for families living at less than three times the federal poverty level and the same number going to anyone else who wanted to participate. Those caps would have been lifted in subsequent years. 

The House drew up its own version of the voucher bill that also would have made sweeping changes to testing requirements for students and added state funding teacher health care benefits and to cover school maintenance costs. 

Cepicky also described himself as “chairman of the education committee up there.” In fact, he heads a subcommittee of one of two education panels in the House, a distinction that might matter less to local voters than it does to his hierarchy-conscious colleagues. 

The House and Senate were never able to reconcile the competing versions of their voucher bills last session, dealing Lee an embarrassing defeat as the term-limited governor’s time in office winds to a close. Lee and outside groups like the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity have made backing school choice candidates — including Cepicky — a priority in this year’s elections.

Cepicky previously drew headlines for claiming that the House approach to the voucher bill involved “trying to throw the whole freaking system in the trash at one time and just blow it all back up.”

“He’s my friend and he’s a man who understands what matters to Tennesseans,” Lee said in an appearance with Cepicky in June. “He is a man who understands the importance of education and education freedom.” 

Jeter, Cepicky’s primary opponent, said at the forum that he supports school choice but wanted to do more to ensure the government didn’t intrude on students being educated in homes or private schools. But he worried that the bill introduced this year would have hurt public schools.

“No offense, but the bill that was presented or was just discussed would have defunded our public school system,” he said. “What [Cepicky] just described to you, to me sounds a whole lot like government and regulation in private schools. And I don’t want to see that.”

Early voting for the Aug. 1 primary ends on Saturday.

House District 64 with partisan leanings. (Credit: Dave’s Redistricting)

The month that rocked the presidential race

Posted on by Brian A. Howey

For almost six months into what was to be the most sensational presidential election in modern times, it seemed to be akin to Europe’s “Phony War” of 1940. 

Then came the debate President Joe Biden had wanted with Donald J. Trump on June 27, and suddenly Biden’s disastrous performance became the Democrats’ worst-case scenario. Biden’s national and battleground state polling didn’t collapse, but the trend lines were ominously heading south. The Trump campaign, with U.S. Sen. JD Vance on the ticket, began talking about an Electoral College landslide in November.

Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 in Pennsylvania, and three days later his Republican Party celebrated its seemingly good fortune at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Trump, sporting a bandage on his right ear, told delegates: “I stand before you this evening with a message of confidence, strength and hope. Four months from now, we will have an incredible victory, and we will begin the four greatest years in the history of our country.”

Then came the second shocking event of the year.

At 1:46 p.m. Sunday, President Biden shook it all up. He said in a post on X: “It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.”

Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid came as his support gradually eroded after a New York Times op-ed by actor George Clooney made the case that Biden couldn’t defeat Trump, and an opaque comment from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi that the president still had a decision to make.

When Biden made that decision, he conjured the historic notions of President George Washington declining a third term in 1796 or President Lyndon B. Johnson’s bombshell to end his 1968 reelection bid. In doing so, these three sitting presidents did something exceedingly rare in the civilized human experience: They voluntarily ceded power. 

U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on MSNBC Monday night: “Everyone was stunned by the news. As he’s done time and time again, he put his country first. It’s really important to note just how world-historically rare it is for the most powerful person in the world to set aside that power. That’s only happened a handful of times.”

Twenty minutes after his post announcing the end of his reelection bid, Biden said he was endorsing Harris for the nomination. “My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made,” Biden wrote on X. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.”

Within two days, Vice President Harris would raise more than $100 million, mostly from small donors, and accumulate enough endorsements and delegate support to win the Democratic presidential nomination. She was endorsed by the Indiana delegation and Chairman Mike Schmuhl. 

There would be no challengers. And during an extraordinary Monday presser at what had been the Biden-Harris campaign headquarters in Wilmington, now rebranded “Kamala,” Harris drew a contrast between herself — a former district attorney, prosecutor and attorney general — and the first presidential nominee with a criminal record.

“In those roles, I took on perpetrators of all kinds,” she said. “Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So hear me when I say: I know Donald Trump’s type.” 

Secretary Buttigieg, who ran strongly in the 2020 Democratic presidential race until he dropped out in March of that year and endorsed Biden, said on X: “Joe Biden has earned his place among the best and most consequential presidents in American history. I am so proud to serve under his leadership, and thankful for his unwavering focus on what is best for our country.”

And like other potential contenders, Buttigieg quickly threw his support behind Harris. “Kamala Harris is now the right person to take up the torch, defeat Donald Trump and succeed Joe Biden as president,” the former South Bend mayor said in a statement. “I have seen her extraordinary leadership firsthand, working closely with her during the 2020 campaign and then in the historically effective Biden-Harris administration. I will do all that I can to help her win this election to lead America forward as our next president.”

Chairman Schmuhl, who managed Buttigieg’s presidential campaign, said in a statement Sunday: “We want to thank President Biden for his long service to our country and the exceptional job he has done as president. President Biden led our country out of the worst pandemic in 100 years, reignited American manufacturing and infrastructure growth, brought unemployment to a 40-year low, and oversaw record job growth in Indiana and across the country.”

Schmuhl also endorsed Harris: “Now is the time to unite behind Vice President Kamala Harris to defeat Donald Trump and continue the progress of the last three-plus years. Vice President Harris has already shown leadership on the issues that impact everyday Americans, from gun violence prevention to protecting abortion rights and fighting for reproductive justice in all 50 states.”

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jennifer McCormick reacted, saying in a statement: “Respecting and appreciating the legacy of President Biden’s service, I support his decision to not seek reelection to another term. As governor, I will be committed to working with the president — whoever is elected in November.”

Republican nominee Mike Braun said on X: “If President Biden is incapable of serving as his party’s nominee, he’s incapable of serving as our Commander-in-Chief for the next six months. He should resign effective immediately as a matter of national security.” 

U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate, accused Democrats of “hijacking democracy.”

Banks wrote on X: “Every Democrat knew Joe Biden couldn’t run for office. They set him up to embarrass himself at the debate with Trump. Now they’re robbing their voters of a choice in the nominee so their party elites can choose! Hijacking democracy!”

But Republican U.S. Rep. Larry Bucshon said on X: “President Biden has made the correct decision to end his bid for a second term. It has been clear for a long time that he does not have the mental or physical capacity to serve another term. I want to thank the President for his decades of public service.”

Worst to best scenarios

Changing the presidential standard bearer this late in the process is unprecedented.

As FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley and G. Elliott Morris analyzed: “The past nine days have featured some of the wildest twists and turns in the history of U.S. presidential elections. And it seems that Harris’s stronger showing in these later polls is more about her having made up distance on Trump than Biden losing ground.”

Based on an average of 26 national polls conducted over the past month, Harris trailed Trump by 4.5 points nationally compared with a smaller 3-point deficit for Biden, according to Skelley and Morris.

“Based on the state-level polls we do have, things don’t look any more rosy for Harris there, as she lags behind Biden’s margin against Trump in the key battleground states for which we have data,” Skelley and Morris wrote. “In our aggregate of this limited set of polls, Harris trailed Trump by around 3 points in Wisconsin (Biden trailed by about 2 points), by almost 5 in Pennsylvania (Biden was down around 4) and by 5 in Michigan (Biden was behind by about 2). This raises the possibility that she could have a harder time than Biden winning the Electoral College and thus the election.”

In the RealClearPolitics polling composite on Tuesday, Trump led Harris 48.5% to 46.6% nationally. Trump had an Electoral College lead of 219 to 198, with 121 listed as toss-ups. RealClearPolitics betting odds gave Trump a 58.4% chance of winning. RealClearPolitics co-founder and President Tom Bevan said the picture will be clearer by the end of the week and that will be a better time to make a judgment about where the race stands. 

According to a Monday polling average by The Hill/DDHQ, Harris trailed Trump by 2.5% in a head-to-head national race and by 5.3% when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included. In battleground states, Trump led Harris by about 9% in Nevada, 7% in Arizona, 6% in Georgia, 5% in Pennsylvania and 2% in Wisconsin and Michigan. Her favorability rating stood at 38%, compared with 44% for Trump.

But in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday, Harris led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. When Kennedy was included, Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy favored by 8%. 

Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo released Tuesday that he expects a “Harris honeymoon,” which he added “will be the manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the mainstream media. The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats … at least in the short term. That means we will start seeing public polling — particularly national public polls — where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump.

“Obviously,” Fabrizio continued, “the situation we find ourselves in today is totally uncharted territory and has no modern historical parallel. Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat convention. And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down again.”

Fabrizio cited Harris’ “dangerously liberal record” before becoming vice president and noted she has been “Biden’s border czar.” He added, “Harris can’t change who she is or what she’s done. Stay tuned.”

“We see her as a candidate now, and we’re holding the bucket of paint to define her at a time of our choosing,” Chris LaCivita, the Trump campaign’s co-manager, told The Bulwark. “She owns the Biden record. We’ve got everything ready for what she did as [district attorney in San Francisco]. And she was part of the coverup with Biden’s fitness to serve.”

So this Democratic switch is a risky gambit, right?

Six months ago, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley said in her primary challenge to Trump: “Most Americans do not want a rematch between Biden and Trump. The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the one who wins this election.” While fiercely critical of Trump during the primary campaign, Haley has since endorsed him and spoke at the RNC last week. 

Jonathan V. Last, writing for the conservative Bulwark, observed: “Kamala Harris can run as an insurgent, but with the advantages of an incumbent. The largest advantage of incumbency is that a candidate does not have to take base-pleasing positions during a primary campaign that can hurt him during a general election. Because of the extraordinary nature of her ascendence, Harris possesses this advantage. She will carry nearly every advantage of incumbency and yet she can credibly position herself as this election’s change agent.”

Last also wrote, “The Trump campaign spent two years creating a political bomb concerning old age. They assumed that they could plant this bomb at the feet of Joe Biden. Trump is now the one holding the age bomb. He is not only a full generation older than Harris — everything about him looks geriatric by comparison. From his gait to his bronzed-over pallor; from the way he rambles and gets lost in sentences to his inability to keep facts straight. Every split screen now makes Trump look old and decrepit by comparison.”

Finally, Last observed, “When the first real Harris-vs.-Trump polling comes out next week we’ll see how big of a hole she’s in. But unlike Biden, Harris has the ability to spend the next three months on offense, all day, every day. If she can deliver the goods, she has a puncher’s chance.”

Anne Applebaum, writing for The Atlantic, said, “Suddenly Trump looks older and more deranged. Campaigns, moreover, are about contrast. Trump is a candidate of chaos, unpredictability, and instability. Democrats can win by providing an alternative of calmness and confidence.”

And Stuart Stevens, the Republican operative who has worked on the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, added in an analysis for The Atlantic: “The Democrats’ best-case scenario is for the Biden-Harris campaign to transition as smoothly as possible into the Harris campaign. The best way to heal is to create a campaign environment of predictability and stability. I get the argument that a contested nominating process would strengthen the eventual winner, but three weeks of uncertainty can destroy the morale of a campaign, if not the entire party. The faster the Democrats embrace Harris, the more likely she will emerge from the convention with a lead in the polls and an organization excited to make history.”

Harris often uses the phrase “What can be, unburdened by what has been,” which has been memed into a collage by the RNC and the Trump campaign. 

It will be fascinating to see if she can unburden herself from Biden’s unpopular legacy and forge an opportunity for American Democrats.

Buttigieg and veepstakes

The Democratic Party announced that the roll call vote for the presidential and vice presidential nominees will take place virtually on Aug. 7, some 12 days before the DNC convenes in Chicago. That is to ensure the Democratic ticket appears on the Ohio ballot as well as 49 other states.

It is expected that Harris will have picked her running mate by then.

Buttigieg, asked about whether he would accept a vice presidential nomination, said Monday on MSNBC: “She’s going to make that decision based on what’s best for the country. I will do everything in my power to make sure she’s the next president. We’re on the second day since the President made his decision. I very much trust her to make that choice as it makes sense for her.”

Other shortlist contenders include Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (Howey Politics Indiana’s suspected selection because it could result in carrying 19 essential Electoral College votes), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has said she is not interested.

United Automobile Workers President Shawn Fain, who is from Kokomo, was asked on MSNBC Monday night about a potential endorsement of Harris. “We have a process we follow,” Fain said. “It’s been a very emotional few weeks, seeing President Biden make a sacrifice for this nation. With Vice President Harris, we have a process we follow. We’re going to be discussing things over the next few days. President Biden was the first to join a picket line. Kamala Harris was with us in 2019. You know where Donald Trump was in 2019? He sure as hell wasn’t on a picket line.”

Ron Klain, Biden’s first chief of staff and an Indianapolis native, said Monday on MSNBC: “We’re very excited about the vice president’s campaign. [President Biden] is very fired up about her race. The president is a fighter. He wanted to win this election. He had been on the trail since the debate very effectively. He wanted to fight, but he came to the conclusion that it wasn’t possible. He has a high amount of confidence in Vice President Harris. She will be a great president. She’s ready to do this job.”

Indiana impacts

The impending presidential nomination of Harris sets up an interesting ticket gender contrast in Indiana. Harris will head a mostly female Democratic ticket (with the exception of lieutenant governor nominee Terry Goodin), compared with the all-male GOP ticket that supports abortion restrictions and Trump’s agenda.

Trump’s selection of Sen. Vance appears aimed at gathering more rural white male voters, a crucial constituency, while the senator’s views on no-fault divorce, contraception and abortion restrictions will do little to appeal to the moderate suburban woman.

So that is an opening for Hoosier Democrats, but they don’t appear to be adequately armed financially to exploit this dynamic, given Jennifer McCormick’s anemic $700,000 cash on hand that she reported on her mid-year finance report. McCormick has held about a half-dozen “reproductive rights town halls” that have been moderately to well attended and have resulted in a light dose of media coverage, but whether that voter energy translates to voters remains to be seen.

Hoosier Democrats had hoped to make General Assembly gains in 2022 after the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision. While congressional Democrats did much better than expected nationally that cycle, they made no gains in Indiana. Democrats hope to pick up four seats to end the House GOP supermajority, but the track record thus far has been underwhelming.

In 2016, Hoosiers witnessed a 107-day campaign when Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb was chosen by the Indiana Republican Central Committee to replace Gov. Mike Pence at the top of the ticket after he joined Trump’s presidential campaign. Holcomb won that toss-up race against Democrat John Gregg.

Now, Vice President Harris faces almost exactly the same time frame in a toss-up race against former President Donald Trump.

Biden addresses the nation

President Biden addressed the nation from the Oval Office Wednesday night, his first public address since announcing on Sunday he would not seek a second term. 

“I revere this office, but I love my country more. It’s been the honor of my life to serve as your president. But in the defense of democracy, which is at stake, I think it’s more important than any title,” Biden said. “I draw strength and find joy in working for the American people. But this sacred task of perfecting our union is not about me. It’s about you, your families, your futures. 

“It’s about we the people. … America is going to have to choose between moving forward or backward,” Biden said, “between hope and hate, between unity and division.”

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Kansas Daily News Wire July 25, 2024

Posted on by State Affairs

Welcome to the Kansas Daily News Wire, your daily roundup of top state and political stories from newsrooms across Kansas. — Hawver’s Capitol Report/State Affairs

STATE

State Democratic chief: Excitement palpable on heels of Harris’ ascension to top of presidential ticket: Kansas Democratic Party chair Jeanna Repass sensed a sea change after a check was hand-delivered to the state’s Democratic headquarters as a donation to Kamala Harris’ upstart presidential campaign. That level of enthusiasm, Repass said, is not something she personally witnessed during President Joe Biden’s reelection bid.  (Resnick, State Affairs)

Congressional hearing spotlights Haskell’s alleged failure to support sexual assault survivors: Some members of the U.S. Congress during a hearing Tuesday focused on Haskell Indian Nations University’s alleged failures to respond to reports of sexual violence and support student survivors appropriately. (The Lawrence Times)

Trump-Vance ticket officially on Kansas ballot: Former President Donald Trump and his recently selected running mate JD Vance are officially on the ballot in Kansas. (Stover, State Affairs)

Kansas driver’s license offices still impacted by CrowdStrike outage: Kansas driver’s license offices are still impacted by the issues with the CrowdStrike. (KSN)

Renowned Kansas artist creates large portrait of Kamala Harris in field after Biden announces exit from race: A Kansas man is sending a political message using agriculture-inspired art in a tribute to Vice President Kamala Harris. (Fox News)

LOCAL

Two 8-pound black bear cubs are at Sedgwick County Zoo: When a mother black bear was shot and killed in Oregon earlier this year, her two cubs were left on their own, unable to hunt or fend for themselves. Those cubs, a male and a female believed to be between three and four months old, have found a new home at the Sedgwick County Zoo. (The Wichita Eagle)

These 7 Kansas towns have much to offer for vacation: Summer vacation is almost over, with Topeka-area schools resuming classes in mid-August. (Topeka Capital-Journal) 

Sporting KC soccer stars team up to open new Overland Park padel club: Thanks to six Kansas City soccer stars, an increasingly popular racket sport will soon mark its Johnson County debut. (Johnson County Post)

Boys and Girls Club opens early learning center: A new early learning center in Manhattan will be able to serve 156 area children. (Manhattan Mercury)

‘Super rare’ Kansas  species found in toad’s mouth: A group of biologists searching for a rarely-seen species in Kansas’ outdoor spaces made a surprising discovery. (KSNT)

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