JLBC published fiscal notes last week for all the upcoming ballot initiatives that will appear on the ballot in November. Only three propositions had notes that included an analysis more substantive than a minimal impact or costs that couldn’t be determined. Prop 138, the tipped workers referral that would allow employers to pay up to 25% less than the state’s minimum wage, could have an effect on individual income tax, corporate income tax, sales tax collection and participation in public assistance programs, although JLBC analysts were unable to estimate specific impacts. Local governments could also be impacted since the urban revenue sharing formula distributes 18% of income taxes collected two years prior to cities and towns, meaning less revenue if income taxes from tipped workers decrease due to lower wages. Another proposition JLBC included an analysis for is Prop I-02, the “One Fair Wage Act.” If passed, the act would increase the hourly minimum wage by $1 in 2025 and by another $1 in 2026. Minimum wage is $14.35 an hour although employers can pay up to $3 less to tipped employees as long as their wages and tips at least equal minimum wage. The initiative also proposes to remove the allowance for employers to pay less than minimum wage to tipped workers. JLBC predicts a rise in product prices, reduction in labor costs, or substituting capital for labor through automation, which could result in a “decline in both employment and business activity.” “Some businesses may pass along the cost of the wage increase to their customers. However, other businesses may absorb the higher labor cost stemming from the minimum wage increase without raising prices,” analysts wrote in the fiscal note. Prop 314 also has a substantial fiscal note. The measure is the Republican border ballot measure modeled after Texas’ SB 4 that would allow law enforcement to arrest people if there’s evidence someone has crossed the border illegally. The Dept. of Public Safety estimates its annual costs under the proposition would be $3.8 million based on its 1,800 contracts. Overall, the department estimated an additional $41 million the state would need to pay for apprehension costs. Toma and other Republicans say the referral would net positive because the fiscal note also includes an estimate from the Federation for American Immigration Reform that Arizona spends $3.2 billion annually from unlawful entry into the state.

A Republican primary race that could have implications for the general election is the House race in LD16. The district is one that is represented by both a Republican and Democrat with Martinez and Seaman. Martinez, Shope and Republican Chris Lopez are running on a ticket against Rob Hudelson and Gabby Mercer in the primary race. Hudelson lost to Seaman in 2022 by less than 1%. Martinez, Lopez and Hudelson all raised a comparable amount of money during the second quarter. Lopez raised nearly $19,000, Martinez raised $16,000 and Hudelson raised $14,000. Most of Hudelson’s contributions came from a $10,000 donation from the Freedom Club PAC. Martinez also received $12,000 from PACs, including the Greater Phoenix Chamber PAC, the Arizona Chamber of Commerce PAC, HomeBuilders Association of Central AZ, Realtors of Arizona and the AZ Professional Firefighter PAC. Lopez also got nearly $11,000 from PACS, including $7,000 total from Realtors of Arizona PAC. Mercer has trailed in campaign fundraising, raising $1,000 during the quarter. Democrats are only running Seaman for the House in the district and he raised $24,000 during the quarter and has $46,000 in cash as he prepares for the general election.