GOP’s convention unity may be contrasting with a mirage

It’s been nine years since Donald Trump arrived on the American presidential scene, prompting me to finish a number of columns by simply saying, “Anything can happen.”

And so it goes. Republicans, gathered at their national convention in Milwaukee this week, are united and feeling exuberant about their chances in November. 

U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, Indiana’s Republican nominee for governor, told me on Wednesday: “As long as we stay on point showing how the policies of the last three and a half years have not made sense and that they’ve got their own political issues, we’ve got a golden opportunity to be happening at the national level. I feel we’re in about as good a spot as we can be in.”

And U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, in his Tuesday-night RNC address, said, “My friends, I can’t wait for Nov. 5 at 6:01 p.m. Eastern Time, when the great state of Indiana is once again the first state on the board to give our Electoral College votes to the greatest president of my lifetime, my friend Donald J. Trump.”

But Braun was cautionary, adding, “You take nothing for granted. You never put the cart before the horse, especially in politics.”

What they are contrasting with — 81-year-old President Joe Biden — could be a mirage. Watching him haltingly stagger up the Air Force One lower stairs before departing Las Vegas on Wednesday was a revealing and sad optic. The Trump campaign and Republicans may be peaking too soon against what could be a phantom opponent.

A series of national and battleground state polls show Biden’s path to victory is closing. An Associated Press-NORC Center Poll revealed two-thirds of Democrats believe he should withdraw from the race, while only 3 in 10 Democrats are confident he has the mental capacity to serve another term.

But the latest model by American University Prof. Allan J. Lichtman, which he has used to successfully predict presidential election winners since 1984 (with the exception of 2000’s Bush v. Gore, which essentially ended in a tie), still has Biden leading in 9 of 13 “Keys to the White House.”

A series of post-debate polls shows Biden trailing in key battleground states while Democratic senatorial candidates have healthy leads. That prompted Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to convey to Biden personally over the past week a loss of support by the party rank and file. 

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a close ally of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, called for Biden to step aside. “While the choice to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden’s alone, I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,” Schiff said in a statement. “And in doing so, secure his legacy of leadership by allowing us to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.”

Last year, Pelosi and her House leadership team stepped aside, passing the torch to the next generation. They took a lesson from Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died in 2020 just months before Biden won that election, allowing President Trump to nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a former Notre Dame law professor. It dramatically shifted the power to the conservative wing.

Last Saturday at the state convention, I asked Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl whether he still supports a Biden nomination. “I do,” he said. “We all know that President Biden was unopposed in our primary. He received 100% of our primary vote, so he will have 100% support from our delegates in Chicago unless something changes.”

But Schmuhl, who managed then-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s strong 2020 presidential campaign, added, “I can safely say — like many Democrats across the country who do share concerns and are worried that the campaign can get a strong message out — [we] can build a narrative to take on Donald Trump, but I think we’re working through that right now. We’ll just have to see where we end up.”

Since his debate disaster, Biden has suggested in a series of interviews that he might exit the race if word came from the “Lord Almighty” or if his health gave way (he was reported to have COVID-19 on Wednesday) or if polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris had strength against Trump.

If Biden stepped away, it would set up the “coronation” scenario for Harris, who polls even worse than Biden. Others have suggested a truncated “primary” heading into the Democratic National Convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during conversations between Buttigieg and Schmuhl these days. Or in the war rooms of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

If Biden bowed out and Harris, a former prosecutor, ascended to a Democratic nomination, it would jolt the dynamic of the race. The age and fitness questions surrounding Biden would dissipate. It would thrust the Supreme Court’s repeal of Roe v. Wade (an unpopular decision with the broader electorate) to the forefront, particularly with the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 blueprint for a second Trump presidency taking aim at contraception and abortion drugs.

And it would feature a former district attorney against Trump, who was convicted of 34 felony crimes this past spring.

The next week will reveal many of these compelling secrets. And it means … anything can happen.

Anything. 

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Cutting students’ chronic absenteeism rates poses challenge for state leaders

Education professionals at an American Enterprise Institute event Wednesday issued a clarion call to state leaders and school districts around the country to cut students’ chronic absenteeism by 50% over the next five years. 

Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing 10% of the school year, equivalent to at least 18 calendar days.

Nat Malkus, deputy director of education policy studies at American Enterprise Institute, said this nonpartisan goal remains the most urgent issue facing schools today. 

“It’s necessary because leadership at the top needs to raise this as the top priority for this school year,” Malkus said. “This is not something to start in on in December. … This is one of those places where the bully pulpit at the state level can raise priorities, and that can trickle down. So, yes, districts need the support and the pressure from states to turn this around.”

The goal of cutting the rate by 50% over the next five years is ambitious, audacious and aspirational but achievable, according to Denise Forte, president of The Education Trust, a nonprofit organization committed to advancing policies to dismantle racial and economic barriers in the American education system. 

In 2019, 15% of K-12 students in the United States were considered chronically absent, Malkus said, according to data collected by the Return 2 Learn Tracker

“Pre-pandemic, chronic absenteeism was not a minor issue,” Malkus said. “Chronic absenteeism is related just to a bevy of negative effects. It’s not complicated — I think schools are good. I think being in schools consistently is good, and the data bears this out.”

Data for the 2020 and 2021 school years remains difficult to track due to the lack of in-person learning. In 2022, rates for chronic absenteeism skyrocketed to 90% across the country. 

“I’m a data guy. I do all kinds of education data,” Malkus said. “I’ve never seen anything like it. …. There’s no jurisdiction or state that didn’t increase dramatically.”’

While no state was immune to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, chronic absenteeism reflected existing gaps between high- and low-achieving schools, with lower-performing schools having lower regular student attendance. 

Hedy Chang, executive director of Attendance Works, a national initiative aimed at advancing student success by addressing chronic absence, noted that while absenteeism rates in many school districts are slowly recovering, some are getting worse. Another challenge for policymakers, Chang noted, is the difficulty of comparing rates across states that define chronic absenteeism or what constitutes a regular school day differently. 

“This is the real threat that we’re looking at now — is that if chronic absenteeism doesn’t go back down, it becomes a new normal,” Malkus said about a post-pandemic casualness that has taken root. 

It’s going to take more than just a political response, according to Malkus, but a sustained cultural response that parents can buy into and reestablish learning and regular attendance as priorities. 

Angélica Infante-Green, commissioner of elementary and secondary education for the Rhode Island Department of Education, said a survey in her state asked parents if two days of student absence made a difference. 

“We saw that they didn’t think it made a difference,” Infante-Green said. “That was really important data for us to get out there and say, ‘OK, where were the districts where this happened? Where were the schools? Let’s get [our student absenteeism campaign] out there.’”

Learning loss from the pandemic has been identified as a key area for educators to hone in on, but Malkus said it’s for naught if students aren’t sitting ready to receive instruction in the classroom now. 

“I don’t see any root of pandemic learning loss being fixed that doesn’t go through fixing this chronic absenteeism rate,” Malkus said. “We’re talking about somewhere on the order of six and a half million more kids chronically absent post-pandemic than pre-pandemic.”

Forte said it’s going to take everybody — parents, state leaders, educators — to make the goal of getting kids back in the classroom a reality. 

“This is a change in our norms and routines and behaviors,” Malkus said about the goal-setting, adding that many of his colleagues have dismissed the importance of this issue. 

“It’s a big deal for your community, your school, your kids — the numbers do not lie. I think it’s incumbent on us to really realize that we do have a role, and I think it’s important for us to not just treat this as a goal for state leaders or some district superintendent to hold, but it’s important for us as America, as our school districts, as our communities, to cut chronic absenteeism and to do it now before it becomes a new normal.”

For questions or comments, or to pass along story ideas, please write to Matthew Sasser at [email protected] or contact the NC Insider at [email protected] or @StateAffairsNC 

Kelly’s PAC endorses against Miller, for Francisco

Gov. Laura Kelly is throwing her support behind four Democratic candidates, including one of House Minority Leader Vic Miller’s primary opponents.

Her Middle of the Road PAC, which Kelly announced last year would support moderate candidates regardless of party affiliation, announced its first-ever endorsements Thursday.

They include:

  • Sen. Marci Francisco, Senate District 2
  • Sen. David Haley, Senate District 4
  • Patrick Schmidt, Senate District 19
  • Wanda Brownlee Paige, House District 35

“These candidates are uniquely qualified to serve in the Kansas Legislature and I know they will put partisan politics aside to do right by Kansas families,” Kelly said in a news release. “I enthusiastically endorse these four candidates and look forward to working together with them.”

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising endorsement is that of Schmidt, a former naval intelligence officer who mounted an unsuccessful run for the 2nd Congressional District in 2022. Along with Miller, D-Topeka, and ShaMecha King Simms, Schmidt is running for the Democratic nomination in the 19th Senate District.

Miller openly criticized Kelly’s decision to veto House Bill 2036, a tax bill the House passed unanimously. He said the veto put his caucus “in a catch-22.”

The least surprising choice was the PAC’s endorsement of Paige, a Kansas City, Kansas, school board member who’s challenging Rep. Marvin Robinson, D-Kansas City.

Robinson votes with Republicans on many issues, most notably as the deciding vote to override Kelly’s 2023 vetoes of a ban on transgender student-athletes and that year’s Senate Bill 180, known as the Women’s Bill of Rights.

Other candidates in the 35th House District Democratic primary race are Kimberly DeWitt and Michelle Watley.

Francisco’s primary challenger, Rep. Christina Haswood, is a progressive Democrat from Lawrence. She was one of many House Democrats who voted at one point to override the governor’s veto of a tax package.

Haley, the longest-tenured member of the Senate, is facing a primary challenge from 20-year-old Ephren Taylor III, an activist and a student at Johnson County Community College. While Haley, D-Kansas City, has at times questioned the governor, he’s rarely voted against her preferred policies.

The PAC didn’t respond to State Affairs’ request for comment on its reasoning for specific endorsements, why only Democratic candidates were selected or whether the organization plans to endorse other candidates after the Aug. 6 primary.

Last year, Middle of the Road PAC raised nearly $1 million and spent just over $102,000, according to its latest campaign finance report. The next report is due July 29.

Brett Stover is a Statehouse reporter at State Affairs Pro Kansas/Hawver’s Capitol Report. Reach him at [email protected] or on X @BrettStoverKS.

Democrats denounce Lee’s ‘civil rights’ remark, Blackburn confronts Secret Service chief

MILWAUKEE — Legislative Democrats are denouncing it as “deeply offensive” for Gov. Bill Lee to claim during a speech to the Republican National Convention that “school choice is the civil rights issue of our time.”

“Gov. Lee’s remarks dishonor the hard work and sacrifices of countless Tennesseans who have dedicated their lives to promoting justice and equity,” the Senate Democratic Caucus said in a statement. 

“Tennessee has a proud history of leading in the fight for civil rights — from the lunch counter sit-ins and Freedom Rides to school integration and labor rights,” the caucus said. “To label a policy that promotes segregation and inequality as a civil rights issue is a grave disservice to the legacy of those who fought for justice in our state.”

Lee sponsored a bill this year to create a statewide school voucher program. The measure failed amid disagreements between House and Senate Republicans about what the overall program should look like. The governor has been campaigning on behalf of supporters of both versions of the voucher bill and for selected candidates for open state House seats in hopes of bolstering support for a renewed effort on the voucher measure next year.

Secret Service confrontation

Marsha Blackburn of Brentwood and a group of fellow Republican U.S. senators confronted Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle in a hospitality suite at the convention, demanding answers about the assassination attempt against former President Trump.

“Why would anyone allow the president to go onstage when you know you’ve got a potential threat?” Blackburn demanded.

“Resignation or full explanation to us, right now,” Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., told Cheatle.

Cheatle declined to engage in a discussion about the incident, telling the senators she would do so “in an appropriate format.” When she left the area, Blackburn and her colleagues chased behind her, sometimes breaking into a trot to keep up.

“You owe president trump answers!” Blackburn shouted. “You cannot run from us!”

Blackburn later posted a video of the encounter on social media with the comment: “Secret Service Director REFUSES to answer to the American people.”

Delegation update

The Tennessee delegation to the RNC indulged themselves in some self-congratulation at breakfast on Thursday, the convention’s last day.

The session began with exhortations from Chad Connelly, a visiting South Carolina religious activist who urged his fellow GOPers to remember that Donald Trump’s 2016 victory had depended heavily on an outpouring of the evangelical vote, 81% of which, he maintained , had gone for Trump.

“You’ve got to maximize the Christian vote,” he said, which meant  campaigning on moral values. 

That began  a series of speakers who bragged, one way or another, about the moral superiority of the delegation, the state and the party. U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann of Ooltewah, by contrast, told a droll story about exchanging autographs with Trump.

Rep. Mark Green of Montgomery County extolled the ethical prescriptions of the book, “The Golden Triangle of Freedom” and offered a theory of his own under the head of “The Triangle of Tyranny,” in which moral relativism and the quest for power were the main problems.

Green, who wrote a self-published book about being a member of the Army team that debriefed Saddam Hussein after his capture, ascribed the Iraqi strongman’s fateful invasion of Kuwait to a belief that holding authority over the area of the Tigris and Euphrates would ipso facto make his power supreme.

Green, the chair of the Homeland Security Committee, confided to the delegation that his panel would travel to the Pennsylvania site of the attempted Trump assassination on Monday. This was in line with its investigation of alleged security failures.

The biggest hand of the day came when Green invoked the fact that Blackburn had hectored the head of the Secret Service for laxity in protecting Trump.

Professor Audrey Haynes connects Georgia’s political leaders to the next generation

Some of the state’s most influential politicians and political kingmakers are clamoring to be guest speakers in University of Georgia Professor Audrey Haynes’ Introduction to Applied Politics class. 

Gov. Brian Kemp and DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond have already made appearances as guest speakers at one of the most-sought after classes on campus. 

“Professor Haynes is an inspiring, amazing educator,” Thurmond told State Affairs. “Her zeal, her love of her students and her command of the subject. She instructs. She brings a sense of the real world into the academic environment. If you’re invited to her class [as a guest speaker], it’s a high honor.” 

Thurmond said he spoke to her class about “real politics — the world of politics, service and how to manage and maintain your dignity and your integrity in an extremely challenging environment.”

Guest speakers may have wide-ranging backgrounds and opinions, but they have one thing in common: inspiring the next generation of political leaders. UGA’s Applied Politics Certificate Program, directed by Haynes, has made a name for itself as a unique opportunity for Georgia’s political leaders to speak directly to the students who look up to them — and who may one day pursue similar careers.

Haynes has taught at UGA since 1999. Asked in 2016 to direct the applied politics program, she was more than happy to do it. With her passion for politics and experience researching and teaching about media campaigns, Haynes has transformed the program into a major draw at UGA’s School of Public and International Affairs.

Her work and reputation have earned her appearances on news programs such as Georgia Public Radio’s “Political Rewind” and The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s “Politically Georgia.” In addition to directing the Applied Politics Certificate Program and leading Introduction to Applied Politics, Haynes teaches other courses throughout the year.

Continue reading “Professor Audrey Haynes connects Georgia’s political leaders to the next generation”

Growing up in a politically violent America

On a sullen late-November day in 1963, we returned from our afternoon recess to find our second grade teacher ashen and sad. As we settled into our chairs, Miss Smith told us she had some terrible news to share: President John F. Kennedy had been assassinated.

I don’t recall if I knew what “assassination” meant as a 7-year-old. By that evening, I had witnessed my parents weeping for the first time as President Kennedy’s coffin was lowered to the tarmac, his blood-stained widow looking on. Two days later, while dressing for church, we watched the alleged shooter, Lee Harvey Oswald, murdered on live TV. These were incredibly jarring experiences. 

To be a member of the baby boom generation means you grew up with the specter of political violence, American style. With the constant backdrop of the Vietnam War invading our homes on the evening news daily, the violence continued unabated for almost two decades. 

The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was gunned down on a Memphis motel balcony on April 4, 1968. Cities across America exploded in violence, which was tragically ironic since King’s signature had been nonviolent protest. It was one of the rare times a political assassination prompted widespread violence.

Two months later, U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was murdered in a Los Angeles hotel hallway. The incident was particularly unsettling because RFK had crisscrossed the Hoosier State during the 1968 Indiana Democratic presidential primary the previous three months. He had made a whistle stop at the rail station in my hometown of Peru, Indiana, drawing a huge crowd. The image of Bobby and Ethel Kennedy disappearing down the tracks waving goodbye as the Wabash Cannon Ball pulled out of town still haunts me.

In August 1968, our family gathered with friends at a lakefront home in Long Beach, Indiana, and I remember seeing my parents and their colleagues huddled around the TV set. Just 35 miles away across Lake Michigan, Chicago’s Grant Park erupted in a police riot during the Democratic National Convention. The whole world was watching.

Four years later, Alabama Gov. George Wallace was mowed down in Maryland during the 1972 Democratic primary by a man seeking notoriety. Then there were two assassination attempts on President Gerald Ford, both in San Francisco three weeks apart. In 1980, former Beatle John Lennon was slain outside his New York apartment.

And in March 1981, a day when Indiana University fans were steeped in anticipation of facing North Carolina for the NCAA basketball title, we watched President Ronald Reagan; his press secretary, James Brady’ and a Secret Service agent take bullets outside a Washington hotel. It nearly killed the president. The shooter was trying to impress a Hollywood actress.

So it had been a generation since Americans experienced a presidential assassination or attempt — until Saturday, when a 20-year-old gunman with an AR-15-style rifle grazed Donald Trump’s ear, killed one spectator and wounded two others.

During the 1960s and ’70s, there was the Weather Underground, the violent offshoot of the Students for a Democratic Society, the Black Panthers and the anti-abortion organization Operation Rescue. In recent years, anarchists and some elements identified in the Black Lives Matter movement have surfaced. Members of Congress, including Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2011 and Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in 2017, have been shot and wounded as the specter of violence simmered. 

Then there was the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol insurrection that resulted in mob assaults injuring more than 140 Capitol and Metro cops, five related deaths and more than 1,000 criminal charges.

According to the Department of Justice, approximately 452 defendants have been charged with assaulting, resisting or impeding officers or employees, including approximately 123 individuals who have been charged with using a deadly or dangerous weapon or causing serious bodily injury to an officer. Approximately 718 individuals have pleaded guilty to a variety of federal charges, many of whom faced or will face incarceration at sentencing. A total of 89 of those who have pleaded guilty to felonies have pleaded to federal charges of assaulting law enforcement officers.

Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, observed, “The 2020 election season was an inflection point that led to a step-change in acceptance of violence as a political tool, particularly among Republicans. By February 2021, 25% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats felt threats against the other party’s leaders were justifiable, and 19% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats believed it was justified to harass ordinary members of the other party. One in five Republicans (20%) and 13% of Democrats claimed that political violence was justified.

“These shifts have created a new reality: Millions of Americans willing to undertake, support or excuse political violence,” Kleinfeld said.

While compiling the Howey Daily Wire, I noticed about nine years ago an uptick in intolerance at Indiana public meetings. There were instances of town board members getting into shoving matches. During the COVID-19 pandemic, school board meetings became so heated that several school corporations ended public comment sessions.

“Between 2017 and 2020, Democrats and Republicans were extremely close in justifying violence, with Democrats slightly more prone to condone violence — except in November 2019, the month before Trump’s first impeachment, when Republican support for violence spiked,” Kleinfeld said. “Both sides also expressed similarly high levels of dehumanizing thought: 39% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans saw the other side as ‘downright evil,’ and 16% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans said that their opponents were ‘like animals.’” 

In a July 13 Washington Post article titled “Pro-Trump Christian extremists use scripture to justify violence,” Indiana Wesleyan University theologian Miranda Zapor Cruz said, “You are either on the side of God or the side of the Devil. If you are on the side of the Devil, then just about anything can be justified to cast you out, to eradicate your influence. And, for some people, that ‘just about anything’ would include physical violence.”

In June, North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson told a church audience: “Some folks need killing. It’s time for somebody to say it. It’s not a matter of vengeance. It’s not a matter of being mean or spiteful. It’s a matter of necessity!” Robinson, that state’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, has been endorsed by Trump.

Trump has embraced the specter of violence, saying in 2016: “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

During a 2020 debate with Joe Biden, Trump was asked to condemn white supremacists and militia groups and to renounce violence. He responded that all he would say to the paramilitary Proud Boys was, “Stand back and stand by.” 

“They did stand by,” said Gabriel Schoenfeld of The Bulwark, a conservative publication. “On January 6th, five people died as a consequence of the insurrection that Trump incited, with the Proud Boys taking part.”

On The Ellipse on Jan. 6, Trump instigated a mob to invade the U.S. Capitol, telling the crowd: “If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.” They searched for the vice president and erected a gallows on Capitol Hill, chanting, “Hang Mike Pence.”

Trump kicked off his 2024 campaign in Waco, Texas, with key ally Steve Bannon saying it had morphed into a “Trump Davidian,” a play on the Branch Davidians cult whose dozens of members were killed in Waco in a federal raid.

Trump has mocked Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who was attacked in the couple’s San Francisco home. Trump has warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses the election. He has called immigrants “vermin.” He said he will be a “dictator” only on “day one” if he wins the election.

Asked by talk-show host Phil McGraw about disavowing vengeance, Trump said last month, “Revenge does take time, I will say that, and sometimes revenge can be justified, Phil. I have to be honest. Sometimes it can.”

Conservatives react

“On a daily basis, MSNBC tells its audience that Trump is a threat to democracy, an authoritarian in waiting and a would-be dictator if no one stops him,” conservative activist and talk show host Erick Erickson said. “What did they think would happen?” 

CNN conservative analyst Scott Jennings said, “I hate to say it, but the rhetoric around Trump over the last few weeks, that if he wins an election, our country will end, our democracy will end, it’s the last election we’ll ever have. … These things have consequences.”

“Almost any criticism of Trump,” Financial Times commentator Edward Luce wrote, “is already being spun by MAGA as an incitement to assassinate him. This is an Orwellian attempt to silence what remains of the effort to stop him from regaining power.”

U.S. Sen. JD Vance, before he was nominated for vice president, tweeted on X shortly after the assassination attempt on Trump: “Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Trump supporters called out President Biden for saying it was time to put Trump in “the bull’s-eye.”

Pressed about that comment by NBC’s Lester Holt on Monday, President Biden said, “It was a mistake to use the word. I didn’t say crosshairs. I meant bull’s-eye; I meant focus on him. Focus on what he’s doing. How do you talk about the threat to democracy, which is real, when a president says things like he says? Do you just not say anything because it may incite somebody? I am not the guy that said I want to be a dictator on day one; I am not the guy that refused to accept the outcome of the election.

“Disagreement is inevitable in American democracy. It’s part of human nature. Politics must never be a literal battlefield and, God forbid, a killing field,” Biden said.

Over the horizon

In the wake of the Trump assassination attempt, most of the reaction from across the political spectrum has responded in thoughtful, constructive ways.

Trump told the Washington Examiner he would be revising his acceptance speech for tonight to emphasize national unity rather than highlight his differences with Biden. “This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together,” Trump said.

President Biden said on Sunday in a national address: “There is no place in America for this kind of violence or any violence for that matter. An assassination attempt is contrary to everything we stand for as a nation. We’ll debate, and we’ll disagree. That’s not going to change. But we’re going to not lose sight of the fact of who we are as Americans.” 

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jennifer McCormick said in her acceptance speech Saturday about three hours after the Trump shooting: “There is no room for violence in our political discourse. No room.”

The quaint phrase here is that words and actions have consequences. Younger citizens and voters have now experienced the national dread when a leader is lethally targeted and felled.

Are we headed for a new era of violence in America? Rachel Kleinfeld observed there are four factors that elevate political violence: 

  1. A highly competitive election that could shift the balance of power 
  2. Partisan division based on identity 
  3. Electoral rules that enable winning by exploiting identity cleavages 
  4. Weak institutional constraints on violence, particularly security-sector bias toward one group, leading perpetrators to believe they will not be held accountable for violence

President Abraham Lincoln, whose 1865 assassination delayed American civil rights evolution by at least a generation and probably a century, said in his inaugural address: “We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”

The coming four months will be crucial as we face the specter of violence and whether enough of us adhere to a more constructive and humane path to power.

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Vance replaces Pence on GOP ticket

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — The new Mike Pence on the Donald Trump ticket, if Trump prevails, will be just like the old, discarded Pence. Except …

As vice president, Pence was there with Trump, event after event, day after day, loyally supporting the president.

Like a friendly potted plant, Pence was always there in the Oval Office background, signaling to traditional Republicans and evangelicals that whatever Trump was doing was OK.

As vice president, JD Vance would be there, too, with Trump, event after event, day after day, loyally supporting the president.

Except Vance would be there more like a potted cactus, prickly in signaling that Trump fights on for the “Make America Great Again” base — no compromise with traditionalists like that former vice president.

Pence was loyal to Trump, totally, throughout the presidency, until finally he couldn’t be. That Jan. 6, Pence couldn’t violate the Constitution and his oath to it. He would instead fulfill his constitutional role of receiving the official electoral totals from the states.

Vance also would be loyal to Trump just like Pence.

Except there wouldn’t finally be a time when he couldn’t do so because it would be in violation of the Constitution and his oath to refuse to receive the presidential election results. Vance has said he would have followed Trump’s orders to reject certifications from the states and force Congress to battle over whether there was a way for continuing Trump’s presidency. 

There is no way Trump now would pick anybody for vice president who doesn’t back his contention that he really won. He has said it so often that he may even have convinced himself. 

Some of Pence’s critics have suggested he sold out his principles to be vice president and further his dream of someday being president.

That’s not fair. Pence joined the ticket with Trump, not selling out on principles but promoting two of his long-held goals: tax cuts and curtailing the Roe v. Wade decision on abortions.

As vice president, Pence played a key role in achieving those goals.

He worked with House Speaker Paul Ryan to win approval of Republican tax cuts. Trump, unfamiliar with the workings of Congress, was more a distraction with ranting about his wall than a help in passage of the cuts.

Pence worked with Senate Leader Mitch McConnell in maneuvering for confirmation of Supreme Court nominees to overturn Roe.

Like Pence, Vance would be given assignments in various governmental areas. That could be trouble for Vance, especially if he performed well.

Pence was named to coordinate efforts with the states in combating the rising coronavirus. He was doing well and winning praise. Too much praise. Too much attention. Trump, never wanting anybody in his administration to overshadow him, pushed Pence aside and took over daily briefings, talking nonsense about injecting bleach and other fake cures. If he had let Pence continue, lives could have been saved and Trump would have won reelection.

Like Pence, Vance wasn’t selected to help carry a state. There was no doubt about Trump carrying Indiana. There is no doubt now about Trump carrying Ohio.

Balance? Well, each VP choice brought a ticket of two white males.

But there was some balance in selecting Pence. He was there to win support among evangelicals and other conservatives who feared that Trump wasn’t really in tune with their beliefs.

Vance wasn’t named to win support from those more traditional Republicans such as those fearing abandonment of Reagan-era policies to curb Russian expansion. It’s a MAGA-MAGA ticket designed to solidify and excite the base and overwhelm splintered Democrats. 

After voters decide on Nov. 5, the new Mike Pence on the ticket will be just like the old one. Except we don’t know for sure whether he will be like the Pence of 2016, elected vice president, or the Pence of 2020, defeated.

Jack Colwell has covered Indiana politics for over five decades for the South Bend Tribune. Email him at [email protected].

Convention Chatter: Moving & Shaking

— JNK MAKES THE ROUNDS: U.S. Sen. John Kennedy had a clear message heading into this convention: “Americans deserve answers.” A member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Kennedy has called for an investigation into the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump. He wants to bring DHS, FBI and the Secret Service before the committee, which has oversight authority of each, to explain what happened. For now, Kennedy and others are awaiting word from the Senate leadership. The senator also told delegates that Ohio Sen. JD Vance was a “great choice” for Trump’s running mate.

— FINAL DAY ACTIVITIES: Aside from tonight’s highly-anticipated speech from the nominee, the GOP Convention is winding down in Milwaukee today. Donald Trump Jr. and Kari Lake both have book signings this afternoon. There’s also a screening of a movie called “Government Gangsters,” which touches upon topics related to the “deep state.” Delegates gather for their fifth and final floor session at 5:45 p.m. Adjournment is scheduled for 10:30 p.m.

— SEEN ON THE FLOOR: Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman, joined his fellow Republican delegates in Milwaukee this week. Duty back home calls, however, as the Bond Commission meets next on Wednesday.

— SKRMETTA PUTS PEN TO PAPER: Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta wrote an opinion piece for The Advocate about his experience as a delegate: “If you’re a student of politics and an American patriot, there are not many events that can rival the pageantry and pomp of a national party convention. Milwaukee, however, is not the only time I’ve seen this carefully choreographed spectacle unfold up close. I was also a delegate at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, where Donald Trump was selected as the party’s nominee for the first time.”

Wake Up Call for Thursday, July 18, 2024

Border arrests plunge 29% in June to the lowest of Biden’s presidency as asylum halt takes hold AP Arrests for illegally crossing the border from Mexico plunged 29% in June, the lowest month of Joe Biden’s presidency, according to figures released Monday that provide another window on the impact of a new rule to temporarily suspend asylum. Legendary Arizona journalist Jana Bommersbach dies at 78 Arizona’s Family Arizona author, columnist and investigative journalist Jana Bommersbach has died after battling a long illness. She was 78 years old. Democratic money pours into Arizona Green Party Senate Primary KJZZ Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego isn’t the only one benefiting from the party’s mega donors, who have also poured tens of thousands of dollars into the Arizona Green Party’s Senate primary. Arizona poised to provide MDMA therapy to first responders with PTSD if the FDA approves the psychedelic Cronkite News Police and firefighters in Arizona who suffer from PTSD could soon use workers’ compensation to cover therapy that involves the psychedelic drug commonly known as ecstasy or molly. Arizonans to speak at Republican National Convention for 3rd consecutive day KTAR Arizona will be represented at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee for the third consecutive day when two residents of the battleground state share their stories Wednesday. Arizona tribes resolve decades-long water rights dispute The Hill “Today marks a very historic day for the three tribes that we have here,” said Craig Andrews, vice chairman of the Hopi Tribal Council, at the signing ceremony.  Opponents appeal judge’s decision on AZ border ballot referral AZMirror Latino advocacy groups are appealing a judge’s approval of a GOP ballot referral that would allow local police to jail migrants, in a last-chance attempt to prevent it from being considered by voters in the fall.  While Kari Lake chanted at the RNC about a wall, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was fixing a border The Arizona Republic At around the same time Tuesday that Kari Lake was leading the Republican National Convention in a “build the wall” chant – You remember, don’t you?  Kari Lake uses her Republican National Convention speech to increase her support by 0 The Arizona Republic Kari Lake had her five minutes under the sun Tuesday at the Republican National Convention and spent precisely none of it trying to broaden her base. Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing: Black voters are key to winning White House The Arizona Republic It’s no secret that Republicans are going after Black voters in their push to return Donald Trump to the White House. Speakers like Tim Scott, Amber Rose, Sean O’Brien and Mark Robinson signaled that on the first day of the GOP’s national convention in Milwaukee.

Resilience and reflection: The American experiment in crisis

EVANSVILLE, Ind. — Why do we call it the “American experiment”? This phrase captures the tentative, evolving nature of our democracy, reminding us that what we have built is not guaranteed but continually tested. The Founders, in their wisdom, recognized the inherent fragility of a system reliant on the collective will and moral fortitude of its citizens. 

They envisioned a republic where power is derived from the people and civil discourse replaces the violence of autocratic rule. This experiment, audacious in its scope, is perpetually on the brink of failure or renewal, dependent on our adherence to its principles.

The recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump underscores the precariousness of this grand experiment. The image of Trump, blood tracing a red path down his face, defiantly pumping his fist into the air after being grazed by a bullet or glass from a shattered teleprompter, offers a tableau both disquieting and emblematic of our times. It forces us to reflect deeply on how violence has insidiously infiltrated our political discourse and what it means for the future of our democratic ideals.

Historically, America has prided itself on a democratic process that, while often contentious, refrains from violent confrontation. The Founders envisioned a nation where disputes were settled through reasoned debate, the ballot and the rule of law. 

In reality, however, a shocking 17% of U.S. presidents have now been shot in their lifetime — half of them lethally. The sight of a bloodied Trump rallying his supporters with an indomitable gesture suggests a creeping normalization of violence as a political tool. It is a moment that demands we reassess our commitment to nonviolent political engagement and the very essence of our democratic ethos.

The aftermath of the assassination attempt, with the image of Trump defiantly raising his fist, offers us a moment of profound reflection. This is more than a snapshot of resilience or defiance; it is a mirror reflecting the soul of our republic. How we choose to interpret this act will shape the trajectory of our democracy.

Trump’s gesture can be seen as a testament to the indomitable spirit of a leader who, despite facing mortal danger, stands unyielding. It is an image that can evoke admiration for his resolve to carry on in the face of violence, a symbol of strength that rallies those who believe in the durability of our democratic institutions. In this light, his raised fist becomes an emblem of fortitude, a declaration that our political discourse, no matter how fraught, will not be cowed by acts of aggression.

However, there lies an alternative interpretation — one that sees in that defiant fist a harbinger of retributive violence. This view fears that such a display might stoke the fires of division, encouraging a cycle where violence is met with violence and our democratic principles are further eroded. The American experiment, fragile and enduring, requires us to choose carefully which path we will follow.

Ultimately, the power of this moment lies in its ambiguity. It is a call to all of us to reaffirm our commitment to peaceful democratic traditions, to ensure that our response to violence is not one of escalation but of resolution. Trump’s raised fist, then, is not merely his gesture; it is a reflection of our collective conscience and the values we choose to uphold in these trying times.

The American experiment demands our vigilance. It requires us to interpret symbols with care and to choose actions that reinforce the foundations of our democracy. Trump’s gesture, then, is a canvas upon which we paint our collective future, a test of how we respond to the provocations that seek to challenge our most cherished values.

Yet, amid this reflection, there is a profound source of hope. The American spirit has always been resilient, capable of withstanding the most severe trials. From the Revolution to the Civil War, from the Great Depression to the Civil Rights Movement, we have faced moments of great peril and emerged stronger. This moment, too, can be one of renewal.

Our nation’s history is not a tale of unbroken triumph but a series of redemptive arcs where adversity becomes a crucible for moral and civic growth. We have the opportunity to recommit ourselves to the principles that define us: liberty, equality and justice. By fostering a culture of respect and dialogue, we can transform this period of tension into one of growth and unity.

The strength of our democracy lies not in the absence of conflict but in our ability to resolve it through peaceful means and mutual understanding. The sight of a bloodied Trump, resolute and unbowed, reminds us the American experiment is not a fragile project teetering on the brink of failure but a robust and dynamic democracy, capable of renewal and growth.

Let us seize this moment to reaffirm our commitment to a more perfect union, ensuring the spirit of liberty and justice endures for generations to come. The future of our republic rests on our shoulders and, in our collective hands, we hold the power to shape it into a beacon of hope and strength for all who cherish freedom.

Joshua Claybourn is an attorney and author in Evansville, Indiana. Visit him at JoshuaClaybourn.com.

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