County sending more cooling resources to Ajo and Western Pima County

AJO, Ariz., July 17, 2024 – Pima County Administrator Jan Lesher said today the state and the County would be sending more cooling resources to Ajo to help community members protect themselves from the heat this summer.

The Arizona Department of Health Services is delivering a “COOLtainer” to Ajo July 18 that is similar to the ones recently set up in Tucson. The COOLtainer is a fully ADA accessible, air-conditioned repurposed shipping container that operates off solar power. The state is deploying 18 of the centers around Arizona, including two in Tucson. “The new cooling resources for Ajo and the surrounding community is much needed and welcome news since electrical outages are unfortunately frequent occurrences during the monsoon season,” said District 3 Pima County Supervisor Dr. Sylvia Lee . “District 3 is unique in that many of the communities we serve are rural which can make providing resources more challenging. We are thrilled that cooling services will be provided seven days a week.” The Salazar-Ajo Public Library , in the historic Ajo Plaza , serves as a cooling center in the unincorporated community about 130 miles west of downtown Tucson. The library will provide extended hours and no longer close from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. each weekday. It will remain open from 11 a.m.-7 p.m. on Mondays, and 9 a.m. -5 p.m. Tuesday through Friday. The new COOLtainer will be open Saturday and Sunday from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. The County is placing the new weekend cooling resource next to the County pool at E.S. “Bud” Walker Park , 290 W. 5 th Street. Community Health Workers from the County Health Department will staff the facility, which will be open to anyone who needs to get out of the heat. It is expected to open for service July 20 and be open every weekend through the rest of this summer. “Sometimes, just a couple hours out of the heat in a cool place is all that’s needed to prevent injury due to heat or for someone at risk of a heat injury to recover,” said Pima County Health Department Director Dr. Theresa Cullen. The state and county health departments this year have launched aggressive public awareness campaigns about the rising threat of heat injury and illness due to a warming planet. The County and the city of Tucson are cooperating in promoting cooling centers in the metro area as part of that effort. While extremely high temperatures happen every year, the threat of increased heat is tied to its persistence. It gets hotter sooner, stays hot longer, and doesn’t cool off much at night. “The body never has a chance to recover. That’s why it’s so important for people who may have limited financial resources to run their air conditioning all day, or their AC breaks down, or someone who is unhoused, to have the opportunity to go somewhere to cool off. It could be the difference between life and death,” Cullen said.  While pets are not allowed at the Library during the week, the COOLtainer will have a few kennels inside the container to keep pets cool, too. Pima Animal Care Center Director Monica Dangler said persistent high heat also is a health threat for animals, who likewise benefit from respite in a cool place. The County is in discussions with other Ajo community agencies to find more resources for pets, especially during power outages. A COOLtainer isn’t’ the only resource on its way to Ajo. The County is installing a generator at the Walker Park Community Center to provide power in the event of a power outage and allow the Community Center to serve as a larger cooling site during emergencies. Earlier this month, a protracted power outage affected the Library, causing its closure. The Community Center will now be able to fill that need during protracted power outages. The Community Center is being retrofitted to support the generator switchover and the Center won’t be available as an emergency shelter until that work is completed in the next week or so.  Lesher said a more permanent solution for Ajo and Western Pima County will come with the opening of the Curley School gym early next year. The County is renovating the historic building which will be used for multiple purposes, including as a heat respite center and emergency shelter. All of the new assets arriving in Ajo or under construction will be available for use by residents in the nearby Western Pima County communities of Why and Lukeville, as well as residents of the far western Tohono O’odham Nation. To help keep Ajo and Western Pima County residents informed about County programs and services, and about heat resilience and resources, the County Communications Office has created a Ajo and Western Pima County Facebook page.

ACC Addresses West Valley Water Customers’ Concerns

Phoenix, Ariz. – The Arizona Corporation Commission is aware of Liberty Utilities (Litchfield Park Water and Sewer) Corp. customers’ concerns regarding the implementation of Stage 2 of the utility’s Curtailment Plan Tariff. The Commission is actively monitoring the situation and working with Liberty Utilities on this matter.  Our Utilities Division staff has been meeting regularly with the Company through the summer to ensure that Liberty Utilities remains in compliance with the Commission’s Decision and Rules to avoid a repeat of what occurred last summer.   Liberty Utilities notified the Commission on July 8, 2024, that it planned to activate Stage 2 on July 9, 2024, of the updated Curtailment Plan, which allows the utility to ask its customers to VOLUNTARILY conserve water in response to increased water demand and extreme temperatures.  The Company also called on the interconnection with the City of Goodyear to supplement their own water supplies, which is part of the plan that the Commission approved in February.  It is the Commission’s understanding that this is a temporary measure.   Liberty Utilities is making progress in improving its water system, addressing previous low water pressure incidents and has shared with the Commission its plans to invest in new infrastructure to increase its water system supply in the coming months.   To view documents related to this issue, go to the Commission’s Online docket at https://edocket.azcc.gov and enter docket W-01427A-24-0001.

Kelly Visits Mexico to Deepen Arizona-Mexico Ties, Meet with Key Mexican Officials Ahead of Presidential Transfer of Power

Kelly and the delegation met with outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum—who will be sworn-in as Mexico’s first female president on October 1 st —, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alicia Bárcena, the Minister of Finance and Public Credit Rogelio Ramírez de la O, and other Mexican dignitaries. The legislators also attended a reception with Mexican business leaders hosted by U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar.    “At a moment of change in Mexico as they prepare to inaugurate their first woman president, this visit was valuable to deepen cooperation on issues like migration, security, trade, and economic development that are critically intertwined with the United States,” said Kelly. “Mexico is one of our most important economic partners, and we see it every day in Arizona with cross-border commerce and travel along our ports of entry that we are working to upgrade. I look forward to partnering with President-elect Sheinbaum and her cabinet to address our shared challenges as we continue strengthening the historic relationship between both of our nations.”  On Monday, Kelly and the delegation held a meeting with President López Obrador to discuss regional coordination on economic projects, U.S.-Mexico engagement to address migration, improving security in the region, and efforts to address drug trafficking along the border, particularly of fentanyl. Ambassador Salazar and Secretary Bárcena were part of the conversation.    On Tuesday, Kelly and the group spoke to President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum about measures to address migration and security along the countries’ shared border. Kelly took the opportunity to raise the importance of both countries working together to strengthen port infrastructure in Arizona, which Kelly funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.  That same day, the delegation visited a Catholic-run migrant shelter in Mexico City that serves families, women, and minors. In talking to staff, Kelly heard about the aid provided to migrants and asylum seekers and learned more about changes in the current migration flow at the shelter.    In addition to Kelly, the delegation included Senators Tom Carper (D-DE), Todd Young (R-IN), and Laphonza Butler (D-CA), as well as Representatives Joaquin Castro (D-TX-20), Lou Correa (D-CA-46), Jesús “Chuy” García (D-IL-4), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX-34), Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-CA-37), Greg Stanton (D-AZ-4) and Juan Vargas (D-CA-51). 

Attorney General Mayes Sues Cummins and FCA (formerly Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) for Deceptive “Super Clean” Truck Claims

PHOENIX – Attorney General Kris Mayes today filed a lawsuit against Cummins, Inc. (“Cummins”) and FCA US, LLC (“FCA”) for allegedly defrauding Arizonans by falsely advertising and selling thousands of so-called environmentally friendly, low-emission “super clean” vehicles, without disclosing to consumers that the vehicles had illegal emissions defeat devices installed in them and were not clean trucks at all. More than 23,600 Arizonans own these “super clean” Cummins and FCA trucks.

 

The lawsuit claims that Cummins and FCA marketed and sold diesel trucks to Arizonans as “super clean” alternatives, suggesting they were more powerful and efficient than gasoline vehicles, without the same negative environmental impact. These false advertisements and material omissions led Arizona consumers to pay a premium for these vehicles under the belief they were making an eco-friendly choice.

 

“Deceptive practices that harm our environment and deceive consumers will not be tolerated,” said Attorney General Mayes. “By promoting their vehicles as eco-friendly while secretly violating emissions standards, Cummins and FCA have betrayed the trust of Arizonans and violated our state’s consumer protection laws. I am committed to holding these companies accountable and ensuring that justice is served for the people of Arizona.”

 

Diesel vehicles are generally more expensive than gasoline vehicles but are known for being more powerful and fuel-efficient. However, diesel engines are more harmful to the environment, with higher emissions. To meet emissions regulations, compromises in power and performance are necessary.

 

The lawsuit alleges that the defendants used illegal defeat devices on model year 2013-2019 Dodge RAM 2500 and 3500 trucks with 6.7-liter engines to bypass EPA emissions testing, ensuring these vehicles passed the tests but did not comply with emissions standards during normal operation.

 

Cummins and FCA also marketed their trucks as having efficient and powerful engines with adverse environmental consequences. They falsely claimed compliance with EPA emissions requirements. In reality, due to illegal defeat devices, these vehicles were neither “clean” nor eco-friendly and did not comply with EPA emissions requirements without repairs.

 

These illegal defeat devices caused the vehicles to emit increased levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The Department of Justice estimates this resulted in thousands of tons of excess NOx emissions. NOx pollution contributes to smog formation, which is linked to respiratory and cardiovascular health issues and death.

 

Cummins, the engine designer and manufacturer, allegedly knew its diesel engines included these illegal defeat devices and software. They failed to disclose this when applying for Certificates of Compliance to sell these vehicles in the United States, including Arizona.

 

The complaint seeks injunctive relief, restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties, plus fees and costs.

 

If you believe you have been the victim of consumer fraud, you can file a consumer complaint by visiting the Attorney General’s website . If you need a complaint form sent to you, contact the Attorney General’s Office in Phoenix at (602) 542-5763, in Tucson at (520) 628-6648, or outside the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas at (800) 352-8431.

 

A copy of the complaint is available here. 

Banks presents his personal biography in RNC speech

For Jim Banks, now is no time to be a “wimpy Republican.”

The Indiana congressman and U.S. Senate nominee addressed the Republican National Convention and joined presidential nominee Donald Trump and vice presidential nominee JD Vance in the VIP box.

“We need President Trump back in the White House if we’re going to make America great once again,” Banks said during his 4-minute address Tuesday evening. “He’s going to need backup in the United States Senate. This is no time for wimpy Republicans. That’s why I’m running. We’ll start by securing the border. If you came here illegally under Joe Biden, you’re going back to where you came from under Donald Trump.”

Banks injected his personal biography in making the case that there has been what he calls a “paradigm shift” among the American electorate, with the GOP transforming itself from the country club party of corporate America to that of the working class.

“Only in America could a kid like me, who was born in a trailer park, become your next United States senator,” he said. “Only a kid like me, who was born in a trailer park, the son of a factory worker and a nursing home cook, could end up here. I’m Jim Banks, and I have lived the American dream and I’m proud of it.

“My dad was a union Democrat for most of his life,” Banks continued. “Today he’s a Trump Republican because my dad knows that President Trump will always put American workers first. Trump was the first president of my lifetime to hold China accountable for taking our jobs. He brought manufacturing back to Indiana and boosted wages for hardworking Hoosiers. Ladies and gentlemen, Trump saved the American dream. But if we have Biden for four more years, that dream won’t be there for my three daughters. 

“But the biggest difference today between Republicans and Democrats is we believe America is the greatest country in the history of the world, but they don’t,” Rep. Banks continued.

“My friends, I can’t wait for Nov. 5 at 6:01 p.m. Eastern Time when the great state of Indiana is once again the first state on the board to give our Electoral College votes to the greatest president of my lifetime, my friend Donald J. Trump.”

Schmuhl on Biden candidacy

Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl was asked by State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana on Saturday if President Biden should remain on the ticket despite his poor debate performance in late June.

“I do,” Schmuhl said at a post-Indiana Democratic Convention press scrum. “We all know that President Biden was unopposed in our primary. He received 100% of our primary vote, so he will have 100% support from our delegates in Chicago unless something changes. I can safely say — like many Democrats across the country who do share concerns and are worried that the campaign can get a strong message out — [we] can build a narrative to take on Donald Trump, but I think we’re working through that right now. We’ll just have to see where we end up.”

Asked how Hoosier Democrats can reverse a trend where they have been defeated in every statewide race since 2012, Schmuhl said, “It’s sort of the MAGA starting lineup. You’ve got Donald Trump, Mike Braun, Micah Beckwith, Jim Banks and Todd Rokita. Those are five individuals I would argue [make up] the most extreme ticket the GOP has ever put forward for our state.” 

Schmuhl’s comments came two days before Trump named Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. 

“You can only go so far for a political party before you start showing some cracks,” Schmuhl said. “I think they showed some cracks at their convention a few weeks ago. I really do. Mike Braun was unable to get through his picked lieutenant governor candidate. You saw here this evening Jennifer McCormick got through her lieutenant governor candidate. Terry Goodin got almost 80% of the vote. We have a strong ticket, we really do. Jennifer McCormick is traveling around the state. She and Terry Goodin are public education experts. Terry Goodin is a rural Indiana expert. Having a woman on the ballot in this day and age with the assault on women around our state and country is an asset. We have a good ticket. We just have to get them out there and spread the message to Hoosiers.”

As for the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on Saturday, Schmuhl, who managed South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, said, “It’s sort of surreal. I heard about it during the middle of our proceedings this afternoon. I was really immersed in that. Then a staff member told me, and for a moment I was just totally shocked. 

“I condemn all violence in politics and public service,” Schmuhl said. “There’s absolutely no place for that in our country. I have run a presidential campaign before from this state. I know the security concerns running for office. It seems that former President Trump is safe and it’s good news. The safety of people running for public office, that’s not a partisan issue — that’s an American issue. You should be safe in this country in speaking your mind.”

Hoosier Dems stick with Biden

Many Hoosier Democrats appear to be content with President Joe Biden remaining atop the Democratic national ticket.

At Saturday’s state convention, a unanimous resolution backing the Biden-Harris ticket was passed a little less than three weeks after President Biden’s first debate performance was widely dubbed a disaster. That set in motion calls from some pundits and party members in Congress for Biden to step away from his second nomination.

In a series of interviews State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana conducted at the Indiana Democratic Convention (before the assassination attempt on Trump), most Democrats appeared content to keep the 81-year-old Biden at the top of the ticket, though several backed a change in the nominee or the messaging.

Read what they had to say here.

Statewides

Wells blasts Rokita’s rhetoric over Trump shooting

Democratic attorney general nominee Destiny Wells on Tuesday criticized Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita for posting what she considered vitriolic rhetoric immediately after a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump.

Rokita, in a Sunday X post, blamed Democrats, the media and “the establishment in this nation including in Indiana” for encouraging violence.

“As a cabal, they will go to any lengths to silence the speech of those who won’t go along with their narrative — starting with intimidation, lawfare, workplace cancelation, and ultimately deadly violence,” Rokita wrote in the post, in which he also offered his condolences to victims of the assassination attempt.

During a Tuesday news conference, Wells criticized Rokita’s response, calling him a “one-trick pony” who “doesn’t know how to turn it off.”

Read the full story here.

Governor

Chambers, Doden topped Braun’s spending in $48M Republican race

U.S. Sen. Mike Braun’s wide victory in the Republican gubernatorial primary came even as he finished third in campaign spending for the race. State campaign finance reports filed this week and reviewed by State Affairs show Braun spent nearly $11.8 million between launching his bid for governor in late-2022 and the June 30 end of the reporting period.

Some of Braun’s spending occurred after he won the six-candidate primary on May 7 with 39.5% of the vote, but that total is still less than spending reported by Brad Chambers and Eric Doden.

The Chambers campaign led the pack by spending nearly $15.9 million as he tried to build name recognition after stepping down as Gov. Eric Holcomb’s commerce secretary and entering the governor’s race in August 2023. The founder of real estate developer Buckingham Cos. made $10.5 million in loans to his campaign, including $500,000 four days before the primary. Chambers finished third in the primary with 17.5% of the vote.

Read the full story here.

Statehouse reporters Jarred Meeks and Tom Davies contributed to this article.

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Secretary of State denies letters carried threat of removal from voter rolls

A private law firm retained by Secretary of State Tre Hargett is pushing back against the American Civil Liberties Union of Tennessee’s assertion that a Tennessee voter-list “maintenance program” that sent letters to 14,375 mostly immigrant residents asking if they were legally registered was intended to intimidate would-be voters.

“To the extent they wish to do so, it provides registered voters the opportunity to correct his or her voter record,” attorney William N. Helou wrote in his letter to Jeff Preptit, a staff attorney with ACLU Tennessee. “It does not threaten to remove anyone from the voter rolls, and the June 13 letter is not part of a systematic voter removal program.”

Helou stressed that the letter “places no burden on any voter to prove anything under threat of being removed from the list of eligible voters.” He added, “the letter does not ask the recipient to do anything, unless their voter record is incorrect. And only then does the letter invite them to correct it.”

The ACLU says Goins’ missives to 14,375 residents amounted to “intimidation” and violated the National Voter Registration Act. Goins told The Tennessee Journal earlier this month that “it’s not intimidation.”

“It’s a statement of the law,” Goins said. “I don’t understand why they’re saying it’s intimidation. It’s literally a restatement of the law.”

Advocacy groups are demanding Hargett and Goins cease all actions that “perpetuate voter intimidation” and “violate the U.S. Constitution and federal law.” They also want issuance of a public statement that no one will be removed from Tennessee voter rolls in relation to the June 13 letters. Another element calls on the state to send a new letter to the thousands of previous recipients confirming that their voter registration won’t be purged and that they have the “right to vote as normal.”

And advocates are seeking release of all records related to the development and implementation of the voter list maintenance program.

“If these violations are not remedied forthwith, the ACLU of Tennessee and the ACLU will challenge the voter list maintenance program in court,” the letter said.

Asked why the outside firm was hired instead of relying on Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti, Hargett spokesman Doug Kufner said in an email that “given the specifics of this dispute, it was determined to hire outside counsel, which is not unprecedented.”

The AP reported this week that nearly 3,200 people have provided evidence of U.S. citizenship, and more than 300 have requested to be removed from the voter rolls, according to the state elections office. Those on the original mailing list were chosen based on data from the state Department of Safety and Homeland Security, which has information about whether residents were U.S. citizens when they first interacted with that department. Many were from Davidson County.

In his letter to the ACLU, Helou wrote, “Frankly, the bulk of your eight-page letter attempts to rewrite the Coordinator’s one-and-a-half-page letter.”

“The letter does not ask the recipient to do anything, unless their voter record is incorrect,” Helou said. “And only then does the letter invite them to correct it.”

Before going into private practice, Helou worked alongside Janet Kleinfelter, now the special counsel in Hargett’s office, when they both served in the state attorney general’s office. Helou was among the eight applicants who sought to succeed Bob Cooper as AG in 2014. Other hopefuls included now-Rep. Gino Bulso, R-Brentwood, and then-Sen. Doug Overbey, R-Maryville. The job ultimately went to Herbert Slatery, who had previously served as Republican Gov. Bill Haslam’s legal counsel.

“The Secretary of State’s office should have talked to their lawyers before sending this wildly inappropriate letter to more than 14,000 Tennesseans rather than cleaning up their mess only after litigation was threatened,” state Sen. Jeff Yarbro, a Nashville Democrat and attorney, said in a text. “In an ideal world, the Secretary of State’s office wouldn’t be playing so close to the legal lines to necessitate hiring outside litigation counsel rather than relying on the AG’s office as it has historically.”

Yarbro said “this entire effort has been misguided, mishandled and misleading”.

“The state would be better served if the Secretary of State’s office was focused on dealing with the very real problem of our bottom-of-the-barrel registration and turnout rates rather than chasing conspiracy theory catnip,” he said.

Non-citizens who are legally authorized to live in the United States are eligible to apply for Tennessee driver’s licenses. 

In 2001, Tennessee lawmakers at the behest of Republican Gov. Don Sundquist’s administration authorized driver’s licenses for people who could not prove citizenship or lawful permanent residence. In 2004, the law was revised to issue certificates rather than licenses to immigrants. The program was abolished in 2006. The rationale behind the driver’s license and certificate programs was that even people in the country illegally should know the rules of the road and be able to obtain car insurance.

Aetna alleges health department destroyed KanCare contract bid documents

Aetna’s fight against the Kansas Department of Health and Environment’s decision not to award the company a new KanCare contract continues as Aetna alleges the agency destroyed documents related to the bid process.

The company made some progress in obtaining documents after an earlier hearing July 10, Marc Kessler, lead attorney for Aetna Better Health of Kansas, said at a Shawnee County District Court hearing Thursday.

But Aetna is still seeking more information about how the company lost its bid for a new contract to manage the state’s privatized Medicaid program.

“We need transparency and an opportunity to receive all those documents,” Kessler said.

Emails between health department employees and Mercer, a consulting firm that helped facilitate the bid process, indicate some evaluation documents were destroyed in March, he said.

Aetna filed its public records request May 19, Kessler said, and the state still hasn’t turned over all the documents the company is seeking. He said the company has until Aug. 2, 30 days after the Office of Procurement and Contracts rejected Aetna’s protest, to file an appeal under the Kansas Judicial Review Act.

“They’re running out the clock,” Kessler said.

The company’s legal team is seeking to depose three individuals: Janet Stanek, director of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment; Ramona Snyder, a KDHE employee who Kessler said was involved with the alleged destruction; and a representative from Mercer.

Shawnee County District Court Judge Thomas Luedke questioned what legal process would justify those depositions during an open records case. Kessler said the statute allows a judge to remedy a wrong.

Aetna plans to file a motion July 22 asking Luedke to allow the depositions, and the state will have until July 29 to respond.

Tony Rupp, lead attorney for the state, said the hearing went “way off the rails” and suggested Kessler distracted from the facts of the case. Rupp said that he objected to the process because the plaintiffs made no motion before the hearing and that Aetna’s goal was to make the health department look bad.

“Nobody destroyed a document in response to a KORA [open records] request,” Rupp said, though “there were not a lot of documents retained” regarding individual scoring.

“You can’t produce what you don’t have,” Rupp said.

The health department didn’t respond to State Affairs’ request for comment on the alleged document destruction.

Aetna Better Health of Kansas and CareSource Kansas filed protests in June against the health department’s choice of Sunflower Health Plan, UnitedHealthcare Community Plan and Healthy Blue to manage KanCare.

The state rejected those protests July 3 as Director of Procurement and Contracts Todd Herman said the contract awards “will remain in place and will continue forward to be implemented and take effect Jan. 1, 2025.”

The three awardees will manage KanCare through Dec. 31, 2027, at which point the health department has the option to renew contracts for two one-year periods.

Brett Stover is a Statehouse reporter at State Affairs Pro Kansas/Hawver’s Capitol Report. Reach him at [email protected] or on X @BrettStoverKS.

GOP’s convention unity may be contrasting with a mirage

It’s been nine years since Donald Trump arrived on the American presidential scene, prompting me to finish a number of columns by simply saying, “Anything can happen.”

And so it goes. Republicans, gathered at their national convention in Milwaukee this week, are united and feeling exuberant about their chances in November. 

U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, Indiana’s Republican nominee for governor, told me on Wednesday: “As long as we stay on point showing how the policies of the last three and a half years have not made sense and that they’ve got their own political issues, we’ve got a golden opportunity to be happening at the national level. I feel we’re in about as good a spot as we can be in.”

And U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, in his Tuesday-night RNC address, said, “My friends, I can’t wait for Nov. 5 at 6:01 p.m. Eastern Time, when the great state of Indiana is once again the first state on the board to give our Electoral College votes to the greatest president of my lifetime, my friend Donald J. Trump.”

But Braun was cautionary, adding, “You take nothing for granted. You never put the cart before the horse, especially in politics.”

What they are contrasting with — 81-year-old President Joe Biden — could be a mirage. Watching him haltingly stagger up the Air Force One lower stairs before departing Las Vegas on Wednesday was a revealing and sad optic. The Trump campaign and Republicans may be peaking too soon against what could be a phantom opponent.

A series of national and battleground state polls show Biden’s path to victory is closing. An Associated Press-NORC Center Poll revealed two-thirds of Democrats believe he should withdraw from the race, while only 3 in 10 Democrats are confident he has the mental capacity to serve another term.

But the latest model by American University Prof. Allan J. Lichtman, which he has used to successfully predict presidential election winners since 1984 (with the exception of 2000’s Bush v. Gore, which essentially ended in a tie), still has Biden leading in 9 of 13 “Keys to the White House.”

A series of post-debate polls shows Biden trailing in key battleground states while Democratic senatorial candidates have healthy leads. That prompted Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to convey to Biden personally over the past week a loss of support by the party rank and file. 

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a close ally of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, called for Biden to step aside. “While the choice to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden’s alone, I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,” Schiff said in a statement. “And in doing so, secure his legacy of leadership by allowing us to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.”

Last year, Pelosi and her House leadership team stepped aside, passing the torch to the next generation. They took a lesson from Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died in 2020 just months before Biden won that election, allowing President Trump to nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a former Notre Dame law professor. It dramatically shifted the power to the conservative wing.

Last Saturday at the state convention, I asked Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl whether he still supports a Biden nomination. “I do,” he said. “We all know that President Biden was unopposed in our primary. He received 100% of our primary vote, so he will have 100% support from our delegates in Chicago unless something changes.”

But Schmuhl, who managed then-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s strong 2020 presidential campaign, added, “I can safely say — like many Democrats across the country who do share concerns and are worried that the campaign can get a strong message out — [we] can build a narrative to take on Donald Trump, but I think we’re working through that right now. We’ll just have to see where we end up.”

Since his debate disaster, Biden has suggested in a series of interviews that he might exit the race if word came from the “Lord Almighty” or if his health gave way (he was reported to have COVID-19 on Wednesday) or if polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris had strength against Trump.

If Biden stepped away, it would set up the “coronation” scenario for Harris, who polls even worse than Biden. Others have suggested a truncated “primary” heading into the Democratic National Convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during conversations between Buttigieg and Schmuhl these days. Or in the war rooms of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

If Biden bowed out and Harris, a former prosecutor, ascended to a Democratic nomination, it would jolt the dynamic of the race. The age and fitness questions surrounding Biden would dissipate. It would thrust the Supreme Court’s repeal of Roe v. Wade (an unpopular decision with the broader electorate) to the forefront, particularly with the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 blueprint for a second Trump presidency taking aim at contraception and abortion drugs.

And it would feature a former district attorney against Trump, who was convicted of 34 felony crimes this past spring.

The next week will reveal many of these compelling secrets. And it means … anything can happen.

Anything. 

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Cutting students’ chronic absenteeism rates poses challenge for state leaders

Education professionals at an American Enterprise Institute event Wednesday issued a clarion call to state leaders and school districts around the country to cut students’ chronic absenteeism by 50% over the next five years. 

Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing 10% of the school year, equivalent to at least 18 calendar days.

Nat Malkus, deputy director of education policy studies at American Enterprise Institute, said this nonpartisan goal remains the most urgent issue facing schools today. 

“It’s necessary because leadership at the top needs to raise this as the top priority for this school year,” Malkus said. “This is not something to start in on in December. … This is one of those places where the bully pulpit at the state level can raise priorities, and that can trickle down. So, yes, districts need the support and the pressure from states to turn this around.”

The goal of cutting the rate by 50% over the next five years is ambitious, audacious and aspirational but achievable, according to Denise Forte, president of The Education Trust, a nonprofit organization committed to advancing policies to dismantle racial and economic barriers in the American education system. 

In 2019, 15% of K-12 students in the United States were considered chronically absent, Malkus said, according to data collected by the Return 2 Learn Tracker

“Pre-pandemic, chronic absenteeism was not a minor issue,” Malkus said. “Chronic absenteeism is related just to a bevy of negative effects. It’s not complicated — I think schools are good. I think being in schools consistently is good, and the data bears this out.”

Data for the 2020 and 2021 school years remains difficult to track due to the lack of in-person learning. In 2022, rates for chronic absenteeism skyrocketed to 90% across the country. 

“I’m a data guy. I do all kinds of education data,” Malkus said. “I’ve never seen anything like it. …. There’s no jurisdiction or state that didn’t increase dramatically.”’

While no state was immune to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, chronic absenteeism reflected existing gaps between high- and low-achieving schools, with lower-performing schools having lower regular student attendance. 

Hedy Chang, executive director of Attendance Works, a national initiative aimed at advancing student success by addressing chronic absence, noted that while absenteeism rates in many school districts are slowly recovering, some are getting worse. Another challenge for policymakers, Chang noted, is the difficulty of comparing rates across states that define chronic absenteeism or what constitutes a regular school day differently. 

“This is the real threat that we’re looking at now — is that if chronic absenteeism doesn’t go back down, it becomes a new normal,” Malkus said about a post-pandemic casualness that has taken root. 

It’s going to take more than just a political response, according to Malkus, but a sustained cultural response that parents can buy into and reestablish learning and regular attendance as priorities. 

Angélica Infante-Green, commissioner of elementary and secondary education for the Rhode Island Department of Education, said a survey in her state asked parents if two days of student absence made a difference. 

“We saw that they didn’t think it made a difference,” Infante-Green said. “That was really important data for us to get out there and say, ‘OK, where were the districts where this happened? Where were the schools? Let’s get [our student absenteeism campaign] out there.’”

Learning loss from the pandemic has been identified as a key area for educators to hone in on, but Malkus said it’s for naught if students aren’t sitting ready to receive instruction in the classroom now. 

“I don’t see any root of pandemic learning loss being fixed that doesn’t go through fixing this chronic absenteeism rate,” Malkus said. “We’re talking about somewhere on the order of six and a half million more kids chronically absent post-pandemic than pre-pandemic.”

Forte said it’s going to take everybody — parents, state leaders, educators — to make the goal of getting kids back in the classroom a reality. 

“This is a change in our norms and routines and behaviors,” Malkus said about the goal-setting, adding that many of his colleagues have dismissed the importance of this issue. 

“It’s a big deal for your community, your school, your kids — the numbers do not lie. I think it’s incumbent on us to really realize that we do have a role, and I think it’s important for us to not just treat this as a goal for state leaders or some district superintendent to hold, but it’s important for us as America, as our school districts, as our communities, to cut chronic absenteeism and to do it now before it becomes a new normal.”

For questions or comments, or to pass along story ideas, please write to Matthew Sasser at [email protected] or contact the NC Insider at [email protected] or @StateAffairsNC 

Kelly’s PAC endorses against Miller, for Francisco

Gov. Laura Kelly is throwing her support behind four Democratic candidates, including one of House Minority Leader Vic Miller’s primary opponents.

Her Middle of the Road PAC, which Kelly announced last year would support moderate candidates regardless of party affiliation, announced its first-ever endorsements Thursday.

They include:

  • Sen. Marci Francisco, Senate District 2
  • Sen. David Haley, Senate District 4
  • Patrick Schmidt, Senate District 19
  • Wanda Brownlee Paige, House District 35

“These candidates are uniquely qualified to serve in the Kansas Legislature and I know they will put partisan politics aside to do right by Kansas families,” Kelly said in a news release. “I enthusiastically endorse these four candidates and look forward to working together with them.”

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising endorsement is that of Schmidt, a former naval intelligence officer who mounted an unsuccessful run for the 2nd Congressional District in 2022. Along with Miller, D-Topeka, and ShaMecha King Simms, Schmidt is running for the Democratic nomination in the 19th Senate District.

Miller openly criticized Kelly’s decision to veto House Bill 2036, a tax bill the House passed unanimously. He said the veto put his caucus “in a catch-22.”

The least surprising choice was the PAC’s endorsement of Paige, a Kansas City, Kansas, school board member who’s challenging Rep. Marvin Robinson, D-Kansas City.

Robinson votes with Republicans on many issues, most notably as the deciding vote to override Kelly’s 2023 vetoes of a ban on transgender student-athletes and that year’s Senate Bill 180, known as the Women’s Bill of Rights.

Other candidates in the 35th House District Democratic primary race are Kimberly DeWitt and Michelle Watley.

Francisco’s primary challenger, Rep. Christina Haswood, is a progressive Democrat from Lawrence. She was one of many House Democrats who voted at one point to override the governor’s veto of a tax package.

Haley, the longest-tenured member of the Senate, is facing a primary challenge from 20-year-old Ephren Taylor III, an activist and a student at Johnson County Community College. While Haley, D-Kansas City, has at times questioned the governor, he’s rarely voted against her preferred policies.

The PAC didn’t respond to State Affairs’ request for comment on its reasoning for specific endorsements, why only Democratic candidates were selected or whether the organization plans to endorse other candidates after the Aug. 6 primary.

Last year, Middle of the Road PAC raised nearly $1 million and spent just over $102,000, according to its latest campaign finance report. The next report is due July 29.

Brett Stover is a Statehouse reporter at State Affairs Pro Kansas/Hawver’s Capitol Report. Reach him at [email protected] or on X @BrettStoverKS.

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