INDIANAPOLIS — Republican Mike Braun’s 11% lead in the Indiana governor’s race is not surprising. He is coming off a May primary race that he easily won while spending more than $6 million. His two general election opponents have spent just a fraction of that in advertising and have far lower name ID.
Emerson College and Fox59 released a poll Tuesday showing Braun with a 45.3%-34.3% lead over Democrat Jennifer McCormick, while Libertarian Donald Rainwater stood at 5.8%. There are 13.3% undecided. The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Sept. 12 and 13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The key question is whether there is a path for McCormick to forge an unprecedented victory. If the former Republican were to pull off a historic upset over Sen. Braun, she would almost certainly need an external event or an opponent implosion.
In the three most recent open seat races, two of them had Republicans coming from behind to win. In a third race, Democrat John Gregg was charging hard at the end and kept Republican Mike Pence below the 50% threshold.
In 2004, it wasn’t until the Oct. 25 edition of Howey Politics Indiana that the race went from “toss-up” to “leans” Republican Mitch Daniels in his challenge to Gov. Joe Kernan. It had been an open seat when Kernan reentered the race following the death of Gov. Frank O’Bannon in late 2003. The Democrat had modest polling leads in late 2003 and well into 2004.
In September 2012, Pence led Gregg by 13 points (47%-34%) in the Howey Politics Indiana/DePauw University poll. It had tightened to 47%-40% in late October. The external event that cycle was GOP U.S. Senate nominee Richard Mourdock’s late-October debate implosion over a question about abortion.
By the time Pence was declared the winner shortly after 10 p.m. on Election Day, the damage of the Mourdock candidacy was dawning on everyone. Pence ended up giving his victory speech in the cavernous end zone of Lucas Oil Stadium, which dwarfed the small crowd that remained to hear him. He was surrounded by grim-looking family and friends. The prevailing school of thought was that his 49.49%-46.56% victory over Gregg had come in just the nick of time. Had the race gone on for another three or four days, Gregg might have pulled off the upset.
In the 2016 race that saw Gov. Pence resigning his nomination in mid-July and Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb winning a Republican Central Committee caucus two weeks later, the September WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana polls indicated Gregg had a 40%-35% lead over Holcomb. In the October survey, Gregg was up 41%-39%. And in the final November survey, the race was tied at 42%, with the Trump-Pence momentum beginning to build. It decimated Indiana Democrats.
“This is a function of the national political environment,” Public Opinion Strategies pollster Gene Ulm said of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s residual impact on Gregg. “As Hillary sinks, he sinks with her.”
This 2024 cycle has featured a dramatic change at the top of the Democratic ticket, as President Joe Biden gave way to Vice President Kamala Harris. Donald Trump had been leading Biden by more than 3% in polling composites in late July. In the RealClearPolitics polling composite on Wednesday, Harris had a 49.3%-47.3% lead over Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling composite had Harris up 48.3%-45.3%. All of the swing battleground states are within the margin of error.
Such a change last occurred in 1968, when Democrat Hubert H. Humphrey was nominated despite not participating in the primary process. In the Indiana gubernatorial race that year, Republican Edgar Whitcomb defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Robert L. Rock 52.7%-47.1%. In the corresponding presidential race, Republican Richard Nixon edged out Humphrey 43.4%-42.7%, with Alabama Gov. George Wallace coming in at 13.5%.
The assassinations of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. shocked the Democratic Party of 1968. The disastrous Vietnam War forced President Lyndon B. Johnson out of the race on March 31, and police and hippie riots rocked the Democratic National Conventions. George Wallace had splintered the Democratic Party, yet Humphrey came within 500,000 votes of winning.
The Emerson/Fox59 poll reveals other headwinds for McCormick. Trump has a 57%-40% lead over Harris, virtually identical to his 2020 winning margin for Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Banks had 47% support over 33% for Democrat Valerie McCray while Libertarian Andrew Horning had 5%, with 14% of surveyed voters undecided.
In the race for state attorney general, Republican incumbent Todd Rokita leads Democratic challenger Destiny Wells 49%-35%, with 16% undecided.
The Emerson/Fox59 poll found the economy is the top issue for 44% of Indiana voters, followed by education (9%), housing affordability (8%), abortion access (8%), threats to democracy (8%), immigration (8%) and health care (6%).
For McCormick to find traction, she will likely have to see the abortion access level rise and a dramatic increase in female voter registration.
McCormick’s campaign faulted the poll’s use of opt-in online surveys as often undercounting younger and Hispanic voters and said the results differ from the campaign’s internal polling.
“Mike Braun is running scared, and for good reason,” McCormick campaign manager Kelly Wittman said in a statement. “He is a sitting U.S. senator at 45% and running 12 points behind the top of the ticket. Braun’s ceiling appears to be very low for a statewide elected Republican in Indiana due to his unpopularity.”
The Braun campaign didn’t reply to requests for comment Tuesday.
A spokeswoman for Wells argued statewide Republicans should be over 50% among Indiana voters at this point in the election cycle.
“Democrats are over-performing, and independent voters have yet to decide,” Wells spokeswoman Hannah Smith said. “There is nothing but opportunity in these numbers, and our internal polling shows the real secret: the numbers break toward Destiny Wells, not toward career politician Todd Rokita.”
Rokita campaign adviser Brent Littlefield said the campaign wasn’t taking Rokita’s reelection for granted.
“We know our campaign must continue communicating his strong record of accomplishments related to crime, the economy, illegal immigration and other issues,” Littlefield said.
The McCormick-Goodin campaign did not file any large donations. Neither did Republican lieutenant governor nominee Micah Beckwith.
Congress
Speaker Johnson stumps for Niemeyer
House Speaker Mike Johnson was in Gary on Monday to stump for Republican Randy Niemeyer.
“I think this seat is one that belongs in the Republican column,” Johnson said in a Monday phone call with IndyStar. “It will make a big difference for the whole country, not just for Indiana, because if we have a larger majority, we can really move that policy agenda through the Congress.”
Niemeyer on latest Trump assassination attempt
Following the reports that the FBI is investigating what it said is an apparent assassination attempt on Trump at his Florida golf club, Niemeyer issued the following statement: ”I am grateful to hear that President Trump has safely survived another apparent assassination attempt. Political violence has no place in our country. We may have our differences, but in America, we resolve them at the ballot box, not through violence. Now more than ever, we must focus on healing the deep partisan divide in our country and work together as Americans to restore civility and unity.”
Local
Schmuhl calls for Purdue voting center
The Indiana Democratic Party is calling on Purdue University to make voting available on its West Lafayette campus for the 2024 election, as it has done in previous election years. Reporting this weekend by the Purdue Exponent shows that may not be the case this fall.
“Purdue students should be able to vote on campus like they have done for years. The latest reports that there will not be a voting location on campus is simply unacceptable for the thousands of young people who want to participate in American democracy,” Indiana Democratic Party Chair Mike Schmuhl said. “The county and university should rethink this decision and agree to open an on-campus polling site for Purdue students, as it’s done several times before.”
Presidential
Liz Cheney at Sinai Forum
Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney keynoted the Sinai Forum in Michigan City Sunday night. According to a report from the NWI Times, Cheney told more than 1,000 people in the audience, “There is no question in my mind, there has never been a question in my mind, that Donald Trump can never again be anywhere close to the Oval Office. He has to be defeated. In my view, when you’re in a race where on one side you have a stable adult with whom you might have policy disagreements, and on the other side you have a depraved criminal — it’s not a close call.”
Cheney added, “As the mob attacked, we now know Donald Trump sat in the dining room next to the Oval Office and he watched it on television. Think about that: A mob that he had summoned, that he had mobilized, was attacking the heart of America’s democracy in his name, doing his bidding. For 187 minutes, he refused just to tell the mob to leave. Instead he sent out a tweet that inflamed the mob. I don’t care if you are a Republican, if you are a Democrat, if you are an independent — that is depravity. That’s depravity, and we cannot give that man power ever again.”
“Keep your November open. ‘Course, I told you to keep August open, too.” —Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson, to lawmakers about a possible tax-focused special session
“In the long run, we’re all dead.” —Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson, paraphrasing economist John Maynard Keynes
“We’re becoming a wild kingdom out here in Pointe Coupee.” —Pointe Coupee Sheriff René Thibodeaux on the wild hogs, alligators, black bears and one kangaroo seen in the parish, in The Advocate
“Our incorporation date was certified legally. I don’t believe I, nor do I think anybody else has the ability to arbitrarily pick another day that might be more convenient to some people.” —Dustin Yates, interim mayor of the new city of St. George, on disputes over the city’s incorporation date, in The Advocate
“I will not be bullied into accepting terms that would negatively impact the vital services we currently deliver to every resident of East Baton Rouge Parish.” —EBR Mayor-President Sharon Weston Broome, on ongoing negotiations with St. George, in The Advocate
“I would much rather do this than be locked in a cell all day.” —George Robichaux, an incarcerated person who was helping with Hurricane Francine recovery in Lafourche Parish, in the Illuminator
The first commercial oil well in Louisiana history was drilled in Evangeline (near Jennings) in September of 1901.
Jules Clement, a French-speaking farmer, had noticed bubbles rising from a spot in one of his rice fields when it flooded. Knowing about the recent discovery of the Spindletop oil field in nearby Beaumont, Texas, he decided to conduct an experiment.
Clement stood on an old stovepipe over the bubbles, lit a match and threw it into the pipe. Gas from the bubbles ignited.
Word spread to Jennings, where businessmen secured leases on about 2000 acres in the area and contacted Scott Heywood, a successful wildcatter in Texas, to see if he would be interested in their prospect.
Heywood noticed the land formations were similar to those at Spindletop and conducted his own tests. He lit the bubbles with matches and created a red flame, which convinced him that it was petroleum gas.
A drilling rig was moved from Beaumont to drill the well and drilling began on the Jennings Oil Company-Clement No. 1 on June 15, 1901. But they reached the 1,000 feet specified in the contract without finding oil.
A second well was drilled at the bottom of the first to 1,500 feet, at which point they ran out of drill pipe, still with no oil. Heywood shipped in more pipe and kept at it, and at 1700 feet struck “a very fine showing of oil in sugar sand.”
On September 21, 1901, the drillers created a “gusher” that blew out from the top of the drilling structure. A second successful well drilled adjacent to the first confirmed the discovery of Louisiana’s first oil field.
“The discovery and development of Louisiana’s first oil field represented the beginning of an energy transition for the nation and a new economic enterprise for Louisiana,” wrote historian Jason Theriot. “Three decades after the historic discovery, the oil and gas business grew to become the state’s main industry, surpassing all other traditional economic activities combined.”
The cyclical, boom-and-bust nature of the oil business has often helped to determine the political fortunes of the people who lead the state. But while oil and gas interests remain one of the dominant forces in state politics, the industry’s value to state coffers has waned significantly.
In 1982, mineral revenue comprised more than 40 percent of Louisiana’s state budget. These days, that number typically is closer to 4 percent.
—FRANCINE’S IMPACT LIMITED: While it’s cold comfort to anyone who suffered damage, Hurricane Francine’s estimated cost to insurers of almost $1.5 billion is not expected to have a noticeable impact on the state’s property insurance market. Frontline insurers are expected to be able to cover claims without having to dip into their reinsurance. Also, following Hurricane Ida, many homeowners replaced their roofs, which made their homes less susceptible to damage, Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple said.
—CASSIDY CALLS FOR NFIP REAUTHORIZATION: U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy took to the Senate floor Wednesday to urge Congress to “reauthorize and reform” the National Flood Insurance Program. He also urged lawmakers to roll back the controversial Risk Rating 2.0. “First, we must reauthorize the program so that it does not expire on September 30th at the end of the fiscal year,” Cassidy said. “Second, we must reform the program to make it affordable again.”
—HIGGINS ENDORSES EBR CANDIDATE: Though Baton Rouge is not in his district, Congressman Clay Higgins has announced his endorsement of Sid Edwards, a Republican running for East Baton Rouge Parish mayor-president with the backing of the local GOP. “The victory is in the fight. I stand with Coach Sid Edwards because it’s the right thing to do,” Higgins said. “Righteousness is its own reward, and Republicans who cannot see that might want to reevaluate their voter registration.”
—STATE ACCEPTS FIRST CRYPTO PAYMENT: Louisiana state government has accepted its first payment in cryptocurrency, specifically to the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, Treasurer John Fleming announced. State residents now can pay for state services with Bitcoin, Bitcoin Lightning and USD Coin.
—STILL TIME TO APPLY: Residents of Louisiana’s Coastal Zone and of and of Lake Charles, Sulphur and Westlake have until 5 p.m. Friday to enter the lottery for one of 300 Louisiana Fortify Homes Program grants. The program provides up to $10,000 for homeowners to upgrade their roof, strengthening the home against severe storms, high winds and wind-driven rain. (More info)
—HOUSE TRANSPORTATION MEETS FRIDAY: The House Committee on Transportation, Highways and Public Works has scheduled a meeting for 10 a.m. Friday, where they plan to discuss the I-49 Connector Project among other topics. (Full agenda)
LaPolitics: Are you watching any potential future storms that might affect Louisiana?
State Climatologist Jay Grymes: Right now, I think we’re in the clear almost until the end of September. Historically, things really start to settle down for Louisiana during the second half of October. That said, something on the order of 10 percent of storms that have hit Louisiana were October storms, and you can go from nothing to a named storm in the Gulf in 48 to 72 hours. So it’s not time yet to let the guard down. If you’ve used up some of your hurricane resources, you might want to go ahead and restock those, especially if they’re storable resources that you can save until next year. [Editor’s note: This interview was conducted earlier in the week, prior to the progression of current tropical disturbances.]
How did you find your way to your current role?
I was the state climatologist from 1991 to 2003. And then in 2003, I crossed over to the dark side and did TV up until this summer. Late last fall and early this spring, both LSU and GOHSEP asked me if I was interested in working there. I’ve actually worked with three administrations as a weather and climate resource, but this is the first time that I’ve actually done it for pay. I got GOHSEP and LSU together and they agreed to make it a merged position, which is principally GOHSEP, but part-time with LSU as the state climate guy.
Every storm is different. What was unique about Hurricane Francine?
The Hurricane Center will tell you it stayed within the cone, even though it kept veering to the east. When it stays in the cone and it’s 3,000 miles out at sea, nobody cares. But when it stays in the cone and shifts 50 miles in Louisiana, that creates a big footprint for somebody and no footprint for somebody else. Initially we were concerned about this being a Baton Rouge issue, and Baton Rouge really fared pretty well. The rains on both sides of the tidal lake were probably the most memorable aspect. And the power outages certainly will fall within the top 10 when compared with past tropical events.
Why does it make such a big difference what side of the storm you’re on?
You take the wind speed in the core of the storm and you add the forward motion of the storm, so you get this sort of cumulative effect of stronger wind speed on the right side than on the left side. And the tropical wind field is much larger on the east side than on the west side. So in many cases, what’s happening is that on the west side of the track, you’re pulling in drier air from the north and northwest, which is part of what ate away at the eyewall of Francine as she was moving inland. So certainly being on the west side, the left side of the track is an advantage in terms of reduced impacts. That right side is also where we tend to see the greatest amount of storm surge. And it’s also the right side in that bigger wind field where you’re more likely to get tornadic development.
Some researchers have proposed adding a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale. What’s your take on that idea?
My first reaction is, why? Category 5 is catastrophic. Is there an adjective that’s more devastating than catastrophic? You’re not going to have anything historically to compare it to. I think in years to come, we’ll start to shy away from the Saffir-Simpson scale anyway. It sends messages to the non-meteorological audience that maybe aren’t very helpful and may even deter a response by people. They say, “Oh, it’s only a Category 1.” That’s not how we want people to be thinking about these storms. You want them to be listening to the professionals and looking at the footprint of the storm as it approaches. And don’t be thinking that just because it’s a Cat 1 or a tropical storm that it’s not going to have an impact. If it’s a tropical storm, somebody is going to lose a roof.
For a few months now, Revenue Secretary Richard Nelson has been calling for a special session to address Louisiana’s convoluted tax system.
The administration’s push to hold an August session fell through amid legislator pushback. But lawmakers seem to be warming to the idea, perhaps enough so that a November session could be in the cards.
But what about insurance? Legislators often cite the high cost of premiums as the top constituent issue.
Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple has been calling for an insurance-focused session since before taking office, and he’s not alone.
“I get asked almost every day by my colleagues when we’re going to have a special session to address our insurance crisis,” said House Insurance Chair Gabe Firment.
Firment would support a dual-purpose special session in the fall featuring both tax reform and insurance, though he doesn’t think that’s likely. A spring gathering next year prior to the regularly scheduled fiscal session is more plausible, he suggests.
During this year’s regular session, Temple, Gov. Jeff Landry and most legislators were on the same page when it came to addressing property insurance. It was on the automotive side where things fell apart, and that’s where Firment wants to focus next.
“I think the number of lawmakers that are interested in a special [insurance] session grows with each passing day,” Temple said.
While he agrees with Firment that auto insurance should be a major focus, he doesn’t think lawmakers should rest on their laurels on the property side. Other states are working on improving their property insurance markets, so Louisiana should try to keep up, he said.
While Temple said he would be OK with a double-barrelled tax/insurance session if that was the only option, he would much prefer an insurance-only session in March. He notes that relevant committees may already be laying the groundwork.
House Insurance, House Civil Law and Procedure and Senate Judiciary A have all met in recent weeks to talk about insurance cost drivers, and more rounds of meetings are planned. Once those meetings conclude in December, Temple said, there would be an opportunity to regroup and come up with a package.
And of course, he would want to get the governor on board. Beyond the fact that he would be the one to call the session, when Landry was backing Temple’s property insurance push, bills got over the finish line fairly quickly and easily, Temple notes.
For his part, House Civil Law Chair Nicky Muscarello doesn’t see the need for an insurance-focused session. He’s fully on board with holding a session on tax reform, which is what he feels should be the top priority.
But he is bullish on the progress the committees are making on addressing auto insurance costs. While he’s not ready to disclose his main takeaways just yet, he feels that everyone who makes money in the current system, including attorneys, insurers and the health care sector, will have to “come to the table and take a haircut” to solve the crisis.
Senate Judiciary C Chair Jay Morris sponsored a constitutional amendment during the last regular session that would have given the Louisiana Legislature the ability to move state jobs out of the civil service system, among other legal elements, which would have in turn made it easier to terminate the employment of public sector workers.
The proposed amendment, which had Gov. Jeff Landry’s support, failed on the House floor by a 68-30 margin, two votes short of passage. The instrument was far-reaching and would have allowed the governor to reshape the Civil Service Commission this year and created a state-level framework for greater control over New Orleans city employees.
The leadership of the Louisiana Civil Service League cheered the downfall and penned letters to the editor claiming the amendment “would have decimated and politicized one of the most successful reforms in the history of our state.”
The 2025 regular session, however, could be different for civil service champions. Morris, who has long advocated for the retirement of the entire civil service system, said he had at least two more votes from representatives who weren’t in the lower chamber when his amendment was parked.
In an interview with LaPolitics, Morris argued the current system promotes inefficiency. Plus, in an environment where the governor and many legislators would like to shrink the footprint of government, making it easier to fire underperforming workers or those from bloated departments and agencies is appealing.
Removing guardrails meant to shield public employees from political pressure could be a tough sell for the House, where a greater percentage of members voted in opposition. Additionally, the tens of thousands of state workers who feel their current protections are fair and warranted are unlikely to be helpful.
Morris wants to see Louisiana follow the lead of states like Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, where hiring and firing government workers is more akin to the private sector.
“I’m not going to name names, but I’ve had several agency heads over the last four or five years tell me that Civil Service runs their department,” Morris said.
State government has about 39,000 classified workers with civil service protections, most of whom work in the executive branch, and a little more than 31,000 unclassified employees. A majority of the latter, or more than 25,000, work in higher education.
Senate Health and Welfare Chair Patrick McMath, who formerly chaired the transportation committee, said there’s a unique challenge at the Department of Transportation and Development. Of the more than 4,000 employees at DITD, only a couple dozen or so are unclassified, he said, leaving top officials “with their hands tied behind their back.”
Moreover, states that have at-will employment rather than civil service protection tend to have a lower ratio of public employees to taxpayers, he added.
In order to have a more responsive and effective state government, “you have got to start with untangling and removing the barriers to acknowledging when you’ve got a good worker versus someone that’s been there a long time,” McMath said.
Anyone who has worked in or around state government knows well what McMath is communicating. According to the familiar stereotype, state government is full of people who push papers around a desk but aren’t in a hurry to accomplish anything, yet they remain entrenched in their positions and can’t be fired.
State Civil Service Director Byron Decoteau said that’s far from the case, though there is a due process that has to be followed; you can’t just fire people on a whim.
If a worker impairs an agency, and the agency follows the rules, “you can get rid of a state employee fairly quickly,” Decoteau said. Nonetheless, civil service leaders are eager to improve the system and have proposed changes internally that could make it easier for hiring authorities to see who isn’t pulling their weight.
The state Civil Service Commission is expected to take up the internal proposal at its next meeting Oct. 2. You can read more about it here.
Under the plan, Civil Service transitions from a paper-based performance method system to a cloud-based electronic system. Along with that shift, the system would move from a three-tiered to a five-tiered evaluation system, with “needs improvement” and “unsuccessful” as separate assessments at the bottom of the scale.
“Unsuccessful” employees would not be eligible for raises or promotions, and they would be reported to their appointing authority.
“Not to say it makes it easier to lay people off necessarily, but it makes it easier to identify the people who may be warranting scrutiny,” Decoteau said.
House and Governmental Affairs will conduct an oversight hearing of the Department of State Civil Service on Monday as part of the department’s reauthorization process. Chair Beau Beaullieu expects the hearing to be part of an ongoing discussion about how state government handles its civil service employees.
Decoteau said he’s looking forward to the chance to hear lawmakers’ concerns and explain how civil service works, particularly to those who may be newly-elected. While the governor’s top policymakers and their assistants and deputies should be unclassified, he said, civil service is meant to protect the rank-and-file workers from being replaced for political reasons.
Decoteau also noted that classified positions have salary caps, which he described as a taxpayer protection.
“Our number one [priority] is our taxpayers, and second is our agencies,” he said. “If there’s anything that we can do to improve, we are certainly open to that.”
For civil service critics, internal tweaks amount to little more than window dressing. The only path to reform, they argue, is through the Louisiana Constitution.
“They’re on the defensive,” Morris said. “They’re trying to get in front of this, to try to beat it back.”
Welcome to the Kansas Daily News Wire, your daily roundup of top state and political stories from newsrooms across Kansas. — Hawver’s Capitol Report/State Affairs
STATE
7 projects approved by Build Kansas committee: The Build Kansas Advisory Committee approved seven more projects Wednesday despite concerns from some lawmakers. (Stover, State Affairs)
Wildlife officials cite hunters for killing white pelicans: Three American white pelicans illegally killed by hunters at Milford Wildlife Area in Kansas appeared in a photo posted Tuesday on a Facebook site maintained by game wardens for the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks. (Topeka Capital-Journal)
Kansas State Fair releases 2024 attendance numbers: The Kansas State Fair released its attendance numbers for 2024 on Wednesday. Officials say 328,714 people visited the fair during the 10-day event. (KSN)
Annual summit sheds light on veteran mental health: The annual Veterans Affairs Eastern Kansas Health Care Systems summit aims to shed light on an issue prevalent in the veteran community and explore solutions to it. (WIBW)
A celebration of the 200th anniversary of American and Russian diplomatic relations took place at the U.S. ambassador’s residence at Spaso House in Moscow. Attending this 2007 ceremony were Sen. Richard Lugar, former Sen. Sam Nunn, Ambassador Bill Burns (now CIA director) and Pavel Palazhchenko, the mustachioed interpreter for Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
Lugar took the opportunity to pay tribute to the man who had held his Senate seat a century ago — U.S. Sen. Albert J. Beveridge — and will likely be held by U.S. Rep. Jim Banks after the November election.
In 1901, Beveridge was filmed with the great radical Russian author Leo Tolstoy but had the tape destroyed for fear it might hurt his future presidential ambitions.
“He was an insightful observer of his times,” Lugar said of his predecessor, “but he could not have predicted the twists and turns of the 20th century, any more than we can predict what will happen 100 years from now.”
Beveridge was a complex figure. In addition to serving two terms in the U.S. Senate, he won a Pulitzer Prize for his biography of Chief Justice John Marshall. Beveridge backed U.S. territorial expansion overseas with the annexation of the Philippines but was opposed to statehood for New Mexico and Arizona after Oklahoma was admitted, fearing they weren’t “white” enough.
Beveridge opposed President Woodrow Wilson’s proposed League of Nations following World War I but evolved into a reformer who championed child labor legislation and the Federal Meat Inspection Act. In 1908, he refused the vice presidential nomination to run with GOP nominee William Howard Taft. He served as the chairman of the 1912 Bull Moose Party convention that nominated former President Theodore Roosevelt, who would finish third to Democrat Wilson and President Taft.
Lugar would win the Beveridge Senate seat by defeating Democratic incumbent Vance Hartke in 1976. It had been a seat held for two terms by Republican William Jenner, who was a dedicated isolationist and a key ally of Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s in the 1950s Red Scare era.
Thus, this Senate seat has been held in an internationalist tradition of Republican Lugar, then-Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun following the example of 1940 GOP presidential nominee Wendell L. Willkie, the native Hoosier who refused to oppose President Franklin D. Roosevelt on the Lend-Lease Act as well as the draft during their campaign. Willkie ended up traveling 31,000 miles around the globe as an emissary for FDR and authored the manifesto “One World.”
“When you fly around the world in 49 days, you learn that the world has become small not only on the map, but also in the minds of men,” wrote Willkie, who based his 1940 presidential campaign in Rushville. “All around the world, there are some ideas which millions and millions of men hold in common, almost as much as if they lived in the same town. There are no distant points in the world any longer. Our thinking in the future must be world-wide.”
Sen. Jenner was an isolationist. Sen. Beveridge was both. Now the seat is poised to be passed on to U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, who is heavily favored in his race against Democrat Valerie McCray and perennial Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning.
That raises the question: What kind of senator will Jim Banks be?
Banks has opposed the past three rounds of funding for Ukraine’s efforts to thwart the Russian invasion.
“No more money to secure Ukraine’s border until we secure our own,” Banks said in a keynote speech at the Indiana Republican Party’s 2023 state dinner, prompting a standing ovation.
Banks voted against a $40 billion Ukraine aid package in May 2022. He told WOWO Radio’s Pat Miller after that vote: “I’ve heard from our listeners from northeast Indiana loud and clear. They’re saying, ‘Enough is enough. We can’t give a blank check to Ukraine without solving problems at home first.’ I’ve always said America can’t lead around the world when we’re so weak at home.”
In a 2023 interview with The Daily Signal, Banks said, “The crisis at the border is the number one issue that every group of Republicans who I speak to across the state of Indiana asks about. Hoosier voters want to know that they’re electing leaders to Congress who are more focused on solving our problems.”
Banks sent a letter in June to Republicans on the House Appropriations Committee asking them to end U.S. support for the Data Journalism Agency, a Ukrainian non-governmental organization that released a list of “opponents of Ukraine.” Rep. Banks and 115 other House Republicans are on the list.
“I was just designated an ‘opponent of Ukraine,’ after being sanctioned by the Russian regime,” Banks said in a statement. “I’m not bothered by what foreign nations think of me. But it’s shameful for our agencies to be using Hoosiers’ tax dollars to collaborate with foreign groups that attempt to intimidate U.S. citizens and lawmakers.”
Senior Indiana Sen. Todd Young has taken the exact opposite position on Ukraine.
“Vladimir Putin is attacking the democratic, rules-based order that has benefited countless Americans and millions around the globe since World War II,” Young said of the Russian president on Feb. 24, 2022, two days after the invasion. “The stakes extend beyond Europe, as China is watching us and clearly has the same ambitions for Taiwan. It is essential that America sends an unequivocal message: Invading sovereign, democratic nations will never be tolerated.”
Speaking at the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition in Indianapolis last November, Young added, “We live in a perilous world. This is the most dangerous time in my lifetime, from a geopolitical standpoint. Believe it or not, all of these hotspots are connected in multiple ways. They are connected because [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping], Putin and Iran collaborate on their major activities.
“[Journalist] Anne Applebaum has characterized this collaboration as ‘Autocracy Inc.,’” Young said. “Unlike in the Cold War where you had collaboration because of ideological reasons, they invested themselves in Communist ideology and their aim was to coordinate activities and foment a global revolution to ensure their side wins. This is different in the sense that there is no ideology underneath it.”
Banks has supported the Israel Security Assistance Support Act. In a Jerusalem meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in August, Banks said, “The U.S. must remain steadfast in its support of our closest ally, Israel, and I will continue to fight to provide the backing Israel needs to triumph over terrorism.”
Banks has authored legislation enforcing the MAHSA Act on U.S. sanctions for Iran’s supreme leader.
During the 1950s, Jenner was joined in the Senate by Republican Homer Capehart, who began his Capitol Hill career as an isolationist who opposed President Harry S. Truman on postwar Germany, President Dwight D. Eisenhower on the creation of a “modern Republican Party,” only to moderate into a more mainstream posture. He called for a “crackdown” on Cuba during the missile crisis. Weeks later, in 1962, he was defeated for reelection by Indiana House Speaker Birch Bayh.
Since Bayh’s upset of Capehart, the modern Hoosier senator has been in the internationalist camp.
Two former senators — Republican Dan Coats and Democrat Joe Donnelly — served as important diplomats following their first full terms in the Senate. Coats arrived in Berlin just hours before the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. Donnelly’s stint at the Vatican came in the context of the Ukraine and Gaza/Israeli wars.
Stationed in the “internationalist” camp doesn’t mean automatic establishment support.
In the 1960s, Democrats Bayh and Hartke broke with President Lyndon B. Johnson in support of the Vietnam War. In 2003-05, Sen. Lugar raised cautionary flags following President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, ostensibly to eliminate an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction that never existed.
Bayh broke with LBJ in late 1967 after visiting the war zone just weeks before the devastating Tet Offensive.
“I came to think we should never have gotten involved in that war in the first place,” Bayh told Politico in 2009, saying of Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara: “I’m not sure they fully comprehended the kind of struggle we faced in Vietnam. He did the best he knew how to do. He had no military experience himself and was relying on people on the ground. They gave him very bad information and he acted on it. But who do you turn to at that point?”
On Jan. 8, 1965, Hartke was the first Democratic senator to break with President Johnson on Vietnam.
“It hurt me back home,” Hartke told Howey Politics Indiana at French Lick in 1986 shortly before he died. “People have not forgiven me to this day in Indiana for breaking with my own party. They said it should be, ‘My country, right or wrong,’ and I would say, ‘No, that’s not the phrase. It should be, “My country, right or wrong. May she always be right, but if she is wrong, put her right.”’ Now, look, even McNamara says it was wrong.”
In 2005, U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh said he regretted his 2002 authorizing vote for the Iraq invasion.
“I did what I thought was right. Some of the facts I relied on were inaccurate,” Bayh said at a news conference. “Of course I would do things differently knowing what I know today. Unfortunately, that’s not how life works. The important thing is what we do going forward. There were no weapons of mass destruction; we didn’t realize this undertaking would be carried out … as incompetently as it’s been carried out. So knowing what we know today, of course we’d do things differently.”
Sen. Lugar, who also voted for the Iraq War resolution in 2002, was critical of President Bush as the insurgency spread three years later.
“This is a situation right now that is extremely crucial and the turnaround is not certain,” Lugar told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in December 2005, urging President Bush to gather “some Democrat and Republican senators and congressmen and reveal to them really what the strategy is, and take their criticism and constructive advice from them, and do so frequently.”
Where Braun, Donnelly stand
The two senators preceding Banks in the Senate are Republican Mike Braun and Democrat Joe Donnelly.
Mike Braun before his watch party on May 7, 2024. (Credit: Jarred Meeks)Ambassador Joe Donnelly speaks at the University of Notre Dame. (Credit: U.S. Embassy to the Holy See)
“We can never give up our international leadership,” Braun told Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs at Indiana Republican headquarters earlier this month. “Then it’s a question of whether the framework that has been in place for the last 50 years made sense in terms of how we paid for it, how we exercised leadership, and to me you’ve now got a current regime that has always been standoffish.”
Braun continued, “We can never give up our relationship of being a world leader. We’ve got to look at it differently. If you keep doing the same old thing, that’s not working. It’s especially on display when [Presidents] Obama and Biden display and project weakness and then they want to remediate with expensive solutions. Ones they could have prevented, probably, were Crimea, and they could have prevented Russia from coming into Ukraine. I think President Trump probably would have done that. Those are all issues we need to do better at.”
Ambassador Donnelly told Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month that he considers Banks “a friend” and added, “I wish him only the best and will do anything to help him.”
Donnelly continued, “What I know is that when we look at Lafayette, we have Subaru. We have a partnership with a Japanese company that grew and developed. We have such an integrated economy with all of our friends overseas. We want to make sure we never go back to the time when one job after another left Indiana for China because they could save a nickel here and a nickel there and destroy a life back in Connersville in Morgan County at the same time.
“We never want to go back to that, so we want to be a great economic partner so we can bring great jobs, great opportunities to our state,” Donnelly said. “We have to be engaged in order to do that.”
Donnelly pointed to his recent role as U.S. envoy to the Holy See at the Vatican.
“When I was with the embassy it’s not an exaggeration to say when I sat with my colleagues from other countries in regards to Ukraine or any other issue, they’d say, ‘What are you guys gonna do? Because it’s really important for us to know so we can calibrate off of that.’
“Everybody looks to the United States for leadership,” Donnelly continued. “When the world looks, the first question asked is, ‘What’s America going to do?’ It’s even more so these days than ever because in Ukraine, in Gaza, I remember when the funding was being held up to Ukraine, one country after another would come up and say, ‘Get this done because if you don’t, Ukraine can’t make it.’ I said, ‘Look, we’re working on it. W’’re doing the best we can. Have faith.’”
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said at the dedication of the Lugar Monument in Indianapolis on Sept. 5: “I’ve known a lot of Hoosiers, but none quite like Dick Lugar. If I would use one word to describe him, I would say ‘influential.’ But then I would have to say, why? How does one become influential in a place like Washington, D.C.? With all of those egos and all of those agendas. And yet, Dick Lugar was influential.
“Together with names like Biden and Nunn and Warner and McCain, Richard Lugar would become known as one of the national security senators,” Rice said. “If anybody had a question, you went to those folks.”
“It was to make the world safe at a moment when it was decidedly unsafe,” Rice said. “We know the story of the Nunn-Lugar legislation that got money so we could assist the Soviet Union in the dismantling of those weapons. They always talked about his service to his country in the Navy. They talked about his humility, where he grew up, and he never forgot it. And that humility characterized Dick Lugar throughout his career. It was one of the sources of his influence. He put humility and servant leadership well above ego.”
Rep. Banks did not attend the Lugar Monument ceremony, having scheduled a defense industry summit in Fort Wayne that day.
Sen. Jenner’s isolationism
A common thread runs between Sen. Jenner and Rep. Banks. Both have allied with two of the most controversial politicians of the past century: Jenner with Sen. Joe McCarthy and Banks with President Trump. A key adviser to both McCarthy and Trump was New York attorney Roy Cohn.
“I decided long ago,” Cohn told Penthouse in 1981, “to make my own rules.”
“If you can get Machiavelli as a lawyer,” Cohn once said, “you’re certainly no fool of a client.”
Matt Tyrnauer, who produced the documentary “Where’s My Roy Cohn?” described to Politico the attorney’s modus operandi thus: “Deflect and distract, never give in, never admit fault, lie and attack, publicity no matter what, win no matter what, all underpinned by a deep, prove-me-wrong belief in the power of chaos and fear.”
Jenner formed the core of GOP Senate isolationism with Sen. McCarthy as they hunted Communists within the federal government. When the Senate censured McCarthy in 1954 over his tactics for harassing federal employees, Jenner ardently defended the Wisconsin Republican, suggesting it “was initiated by the Communist conspiracy.”
Jenner was a strident opponent of Gen. George C. Marshall, who was appointed secretary of defense in 1950. Jenner accused the Truman administration of “bloody tracks of treason” and called Marshall “a living lie” who was “joining hands once more with this criminal crowd of traitors and Communist appeasers.”
When Gen. Marshall was informed of Jenner’s speech, he responded, “Jenner? Jenner? I do not believe I know the man.”
In 1951, after President Truman dismissed Gen. Douglas MacArthur for insubordination, Jenner gave a Senate floor speech: “I charge that this country today is in the hands of a secret inner coterie, which is directed by agents of the Soviet government. Our only choice is to impeach President Truman and find out who is the secret invisible government.”
In the Red Scare era, Republicans such as Jenner and McCarthy often claimed Democrats “don’t love their country,” similar to Banks’ rhetoric today. Banks has likened Vice President Harris to a “Marxist” and a “Communist.” The ironic twist is that Banks’ patron, Donald Trump, has consistently lauded Communists such as China’s Xi and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un, as well as anti-Democratic autocrats such as Russia’s Putin and Hungary’s Orban.
And since the Civil War, none of Indiana’s senators has backed the kind of coup d’état that Trump attempted in 2021.
Rep. Banks in power
When Rep. Banks was a freshman in Congress, Howey Politics Indiana joined him and then-Indiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Courtney Carr on a tour of Camp Atterbury-Muscatatuck Training Center. It was part of a routine where Banks was regularly available for coffee or a beer.
Rep. Jim Banks and then-Indiana National Guard Maj. Gen. Courtney Carr tour Camp Atterbury-Muscatatuck Training Center. (Credit: Brian A. Howey)
Howey Politics Indiana reported that Banks “has been an ambitious Republican, moving from president of the Indiana University Republicans to chairing the Whitley County GOP and then to the Indiana Senate in 2010. At times, Banks seemed restless and potentially reckless, as early in his Indiana Senate tenure he seemed to foment leadership change. By the time he ran for Congress, Senate President Pro Tempore David Long was an early and emphatic backer.
“Entering Congress, many thought Banks would follow [U.S. Rep. Marlin] Stutzman’s footsteps into the Tea Party Freedom Caucus. Instead, Banks has insisted that his priority membership is the Republican conference. While he has gained conspicuous national media early in his career, with the seasoned help of his chief of staff, Matt Lahr, a former aide to U.S. Sen. Dan Coats, Banks comes off as thoughtful and less a firebrand than many had forecast. Banks is in study mode these days.”
During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump’s “Access Hollywood” interview was widely regarded as a huge faux paus. A northeastern Indiana journalist described Banks’ reaction as one of “outrage” from the father of daughters.
But in the following years, Banks has become one of Trump’s most ardent supporters, insisting the former president would be the “best” 2024 nominee despite Banks’ Indiana ties with another candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence. Banks no longer reached out to so-called mainstream reporters and commentators in Indiana. Despite his overwhelming advantage in the general election, he is distracted by issues a seasoned candidate would ignore.
Since then, Banks has been hyper-supportive of Trump. In January he erroneously claimed on X that “Donald J. Trump is the only candidate who qualified for the Indiana GOP presidential primary. Nikki Haley didn’t get enough signatures. It’s over. She needs to do what’s best for America and call it quits.”
Not only did Haley qualify for the ballot, but also Banks joined Trump when it came to the May primary undervote.
More than 1 in 5 Republicans (21.7%) voted for the zombie candidacy of Haley over Trump, who defeated her 461,663 to 128,168 in the presidential primary despite the fact that she had dropped out of the race more than two months earlier. Rep. Banks ran unopposed in the Senate race, receiving 475,555 votes in a primary where 596,000 voted.
Trump now has a suburban dilemma in Indiana, as 33.6% of Republicans in Hamilton County, 31.7% in Boone, 25.2% in Hendricks, 23.2% in Hancock and 22.8% in Johnson voted for Haley. In Banks’ home county of Whitley, 18.2% voted for Haley, while in former Vice President Pence’s home county of Bartholomew, 27.6% voted for her.
Last October, as House Republicans grappled to elect a new speaker after jettisoning Kevin McCarthy, Banks initially backed Rep. Jim Jordan (who former Speaker John Boehner had labeled a “legislative terrorist”). Banks said at one point of House Republicans: “We don’t deserve the majority if we go along with a plan to give the Democrats control over the House of Representatives.”
After Jordan flamed out, Banks quickly sided with eventual Speaker Mike Johnson, who The New York Times described as “the most important architect of the Electoral College objections” following the 2020 elections that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. Banks said, “Mike Johnson is a man of integrity and a principled conservative. I will be proud to cast my vote on behalf of northeast Indiana for him on the floor tomorrow to make him the next speaker of the House!”
In the Oct. 26, 2023, edition, Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs observed, “It’s been said that Hoosiers tend to elect ‘Senate lions.’ U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh authored two of the 26 amendments to the U.S. Constitution, as well as Title IX. Richard Lugar helped save Chrysler Corp. in 1979 and was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for his Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Act. Dan Quayle was elected vice president and Evan Bayh was nosed out of the 2008 veepstakes by Joe Biden. Dan Coats became ambassador to Germany on Sept. 10, 2001, and was President Trump’s director of national intelligence. Joe Donnelly is the U.S. envoy to the Vatican.”
As for Banks, Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs wrote, “A Senate lion? No, Jim Banks has become a House laughing hyena.”
When Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs asked to interview Banks for this article, his deputy chief of staff, Buckley Carlson, responded, “Hey, Brian, don’t think he’s going to want to participate in your piece given you’ve already published your conclusion.”
Epilogue
Although Banks wasn’t available for this story, several prominent Republicans commented about where he’ll likely end up on the Senate spectrum.
Republican U.S. Senate nominee Jim Banks at the Republican National Convention. (Credit: Banks campaign)
“I have always found Jim Banks to be a pragmatic yet distinctly pro-American public servant,” former Howard County Chairman Craig Dunn said. “I would expect Jim to serve in the mode of a Sen. Tom Cotton. I believe Jim will be a senator for Indiana much more than just a senator from Indiana. While Sen. Young and Sen. Banks may have a few differences in style, I believe they will both continue to serve the people of Indiana well.”
Evansville attorney Joshua Claybourn, an HPI contributor and longtime friend of Rep. Banks’, observed, “Jim Banks’ impending senatorial tenure is indeed a compelling subject, especially when contextualized within Indiana’s rich political lineage.
“I can understand why some might place Banks closer to the William Jenner archetype — a figure marked by fervent isolationism and a skepticism toward international entanglements, since MAGA has likewise embraced this position,” Claybourn said. “This stance contrasts sharply with the internationalist tradition embodied by figures from Birch Bayh to Dick Lugar to Todd Young. However, I’m not convinced that isolationism really drives Banks the same way it does many on the New Right.
“Albert Beveridge’s legacy offers a nuanced template — a statesman who managed to straddle both camps of isolationism and internationalism,” Claybourn added. “I can envision Banks finding himself navigating a similar middle ground, especially as global and domestic challenges become increasingly intertwined. One could argue that Banks has defined his own brand of conservatism, blending traditional Indiana values with the populist currents of MAGA. By embracing the populist undercurrents of the MAGA movement, he’s tapped into the genuine anxieties of blue-collar workers who feel alienated by globalization and ignored by the political establishment.”
