Full results of school carbon monoxide, radon testing survey pending

Posted on by Matthew Sasser

Twenty school districts in North Carolina have not reported data from a General Assembly-mandated carbon monoxide alarm and radon testing survey. 

The Department of Public Instruction projects $85 million will be preliminarily needed to complete the project. 

Nathan Maune, director of the Department of Public Instruction’s Office of School Facilities, said his office received an 83% response rate from public school units, except charter schools, and a 47% response rate from agency, lab, regional and statewide schools. 

“We hope to give you a further update and complete the report once we’ve obtained as much data as we reasonably can,” Maune said, adding his office is working with Department of Public Instruction regional directors to get more data. 

The provision, added to the 2023 state budget, stated that the State Board of Education should report the survey findings to the Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee by Dec. 15, 2023. The report should include the number of school buildings without adequate carbon monoxide detectors and the cost of radon testing equipment for all classrooms. The legislation is meant to bring public schools into compliance with Section 915 of the North Carolina State Building Code’s Fire Prevention Code. 

Over 2,500 school campuses and 7,300 individual school buildings have been surveyed so far. Though each facility was designed and constructed to the standards at the time, Maune said the legislation recognizes that building codes change every several years.

A draft report that Maune’s office submitted to the State Board of Education on Wednesday outlined preliminary findings of $40 million for nearly 38,000 carbon monoxide alarms and $45 million for radon testing in every classroom. Maune said that characterizing the statewide cost was difficult and that the district-by-district table should not be taken verbatim because it’s still in draft form. 

Board members agreed they’d like to initiate a similar survey for charter schools. Maune said the survey link could be made available to those schools.

For questions or comments, or to pass along story ideas, please write to Matthew Sasser at [email protected] or contact the NC Insider at [email protected] or @StateAffairsNC 

Schools superintendent defends decision to drop AP African American Studies class, says it violates state law

Posted on by Tammy Joyner

Georgia School Superintendent Richard Woods said he dropped a college-level high school course about African American studies from the state’s class offerings because it violates a state law regulating the teaching of sensitive subjects such as race, gender, sex and history.

Woods’ explanation comes a week after educators, lawmakers, civil rights groups and other critics slammed him for not including an Advanced Placement African American Studies class as part of the 2024-25 school year curriculum. Critics called it an assault on students’ rights and educators’ ability to teach.

“After reviewing the content, it was clear that parts of the coursework did violate the law,” Woods said in a written statement that appeared on the Georgia Department of Education’s website. “As with most states with laws like Georgia on this issue that have raised concerns, the most glaring violation is on the topic of intersectionality. If the Advanced Placement course had presented a comparative narrative with opposing views on this and other topics, an argument could be made that the course did not violate Georgia law. For me, this has always been about following the law.”

Continue reading “Schools superintendent defends decision to drop AP African American Studies class, says it violates state law”

The veepstakes will end Tuesday; meanwhile Pete auditions

Posted on by Brian A. Howey

INDIANAPOLIS — Our quadrennial veepstakes mystery will end Tuesday in Pennsylvania. That’s when presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will kick off a swing-state tour with her new running mate.

Asked by reporters in Atlanta on Tuesday whether she had finalized her choice, Harris said, “Not yet.”

But the fact that this ticket tour begins in Philadelphia has sparked much speculation around Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. He — along with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona — is on the so-called shortlist, though anyone with any real knowledge ain’t talkin’.

Buttigieg acknowledged in an interview Monday on Jon Stewart’s “Daily Show” that he’s “probably” being vetted. 

“All I should say about it is that she’s going to make this decision,” Buttigieg said. “She’s got a process to help her make this decision.” 

When Stewart pressed him on whether he’d made the “quarterfinals,” Buttigieg said, “What I know is that there’s a flying formation. What I’ll say is, no matter what the flying formation is going to be, I’m really excited to be part of this. I’m excited to be part of this campaign.”

Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, Secretary Buttigieg has had a ubiquitous presence across the cable news spectrum.

He will appear in Kokomo on Friday to tout the Biden administration’s job creation profile at a battery manufacturer. As he did a couple years ago, there is speculation he could attend the Indiana Democratic Editorial Association convention in French Lick later in the day. Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl will host an event on the veranda at 3 p.m. 

Schmuhl managed Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign, which raised more than $90 million. The New York Times reported that a significant part of Buttigieg’s donor network is backing him for the ticket.

The former South Bend mayor told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on July 26: “I think anybody would be flattered to be mentioned in that context — I certainly am. There is really not more I can or should say about that process other than she’s going to make that decision.”

He had a sensational interview on “Fox News Sunday,” which only continued to pump up his reputation as one of the Democratic Party’s best messengers.

When anchor Shannon Bream brought up the topics of immigration and crime, Buttigieg said, “The false message of the RNC was that this was leading to an increase in crime.”

Bream responded, “If people had not been in this country illegally, people would still be alive.”

Buttigieg retorted, “Of course there are individual cases, but this is my point, right, trying to make people think that crime is up when crime is down under Joe Biden and crime was up under Donald Trump. Now I don’t know how often that gets reported on this network. So if you’re watching this at home, do yourself a favor and look up the data.”

That give-and-take prompted national Republican operative and analyst Mike Murphy to call Buttigieg the Democratic Party’s top messenger who would be a ticket asset. On Monday on MSNBC, Murphy also downplayed the notion of adding a governor simply to win a swing state, saying that is a tell-tale from a bygone era.

How does Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs handicap this?

Gov. Shapiro: The Harris ticket tour beginning in Philadelphia has national pundits swooning over Gov. Shapiro. It would be awkward for him to laud a ticket that he would not be a part of. Shapiro leads a toss-up battleground state with 19 Electoral College votes. Like Harris, he’s a former prosecutor, and a dynamic speaker who carried his state with a 15% plurality over a Donald Trump acolyte two years ago. 

Sen. Kelly: He told Politico he will be in Arizona next week. Arizona is a toss-up battleground state with 11 Electoral College votes, while neighboring Nevada has six Electoral College votes (assuming Sen. Kelly has had a presence in the Las Vegas media market). His strengths to the ticket would be he would help Harris deal with the southern border controversies; his wife, Gabby Giffords, survived an assassination attempt and could help articulate gun issues; and Kelly is a former astronaut, which is seen as an asset.

Secretary Buttigieg: He would posit the ticket as a torch passing to the “next generation.” He is now a resident of toss-up battleground Michigan, where about 10% of the southwestern part of the state was in the South Bend media market. He was fully vetted when he joined the Biden cabinet. His sexual orientation has been approached by some pundits like David Axelrod as the proverbial “bridge too far,” but those citizens uncomfortable with the idea of a gay vice president probably wouldn’t vote Democrat anyway. It would be fascinating to watch Buttigieg debate Republican nominee JD Vance, who has been a font of controversial statements since he joined the GOP ticket last month. Plus, Secretary Buttigieg polls better than any of the other contenders. He’s a long shot, but this is a dynamic, game-time decision and we haven’t placed an electronic fly on the wall at Kamala HQ in Wilmington.

Gov. Walz: The Minnesota governor is credited with creating the caricature of the Republican Party as “weird.” He’s a former schoolteacher who could help keep Minnesota in the blue column while having Upper Midwest appeal that could play in neighboring toss-up battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan.

Banks supports Vance, all the way to his nomination

The night Indiana U.S. Rep. Jim Banks addressed the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, he was invited to sit in the VIP box with Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., JD Vance and Tucker Carlson.

Now, as questions swirl around the selection of Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance as the vice presidential nominee, look no further than that VIP box to figure out how he ended up on the ticket.

Numerous media sources have said Trump Jr., backed by Carlson and Banks, pushed for Vance on the ticket. (Carlson’s son, Buckley, is on Banks’ congressional staff.) “It’s the American dream — he’s just gonna be an incredible pick,” Trump Jr. told ABC News at the Republican National Convention.

After Vance addressed the RNC, Banks told Politico the pick of Vance was “generational,” adding, “It is a personal story for literally tens of thousands of Americans who feel like Washington has completely ignored them. I think especially after Saturday, Donald Trump is thinking a lot about the future. To me, it’s less about [the] running mate [as] it is about the future of our Republican Party, the future of the America First movement. And JD Vance is that future.”

But Vance’s rollout following the RNC has been cluttered with controversial quotes that have surfaced. It is unclear whether Vance underwent a comprehensive vetting process. 

The most infamous quote was the “cat lady” remark he made on Carlson’s Fox News show in 2021 when Vance called “childless” Democratic leaders out of sync with voters. But there has been an array of similar bombshells from Vance, who called Donald Trump “America’s Hitler” and compared him to “cultural heroin.”

Others have reported that Vance suggested there should be a “federal response” to keep women from traveling out of state for abortions in a January 2022 episode of Aimee Terese’s “What’s Left” podcast.

CNN analyst Harry Enten said on X that Vance is the “least-liked non-incumbent vice presidential nominee in at least 44 years,” noting he had a double-digit unfavorable rating with voters across the Midwest. A CNN poll in July found Vance had a 28% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable — or a -16 — rating among registered voters surveyed in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.

“The people who know him best, the region that knows him best, they like him even less than America likes him,” Enten told the network’s Erin Burnett.

Banks has played a conspicuous role in Vance’s ascent. The two endorsed each other’s U.S. Senate campaigns, with Banks’ endorsement coming in 2022 while Vance endorsed the Columbia City Republican earlier this year. Banks told Axios in 2022 that Vance “isn’t afraid to stand up to the woke elites and will always put middle- and working-class Ohioans first.”

In his endorsement of Banks, coming after Mitch Daniels declined to run against him for the Senate, Vance said, “We need more leadership in Washington like Jim Banks. Jim puts the interests of our own country first, like working to secure our border from illegal immigration and illicit drugs and fentanyl, standing up against Big Tech censorship and fighting for America First trade policies that support working families with job creation right here at home.”

Vance’s first solo campaign stop after the convention was in Fort Wayne last week, with Banks in tow.

Banks has also forged a friendship with Trump Jr., who campaigned for the congressman and for gubernatorial candidate Mike Braun at Fischer Farms in Shelbyville in late March.

Before Vance was nominated for the Trump ticket, Banks conspicuously backed Vance. “On the day JD Vance was selected as vice president, it was Jim Banks who introduced JD Vance to the convention,” Allen County Republican Chairman Steve Shine said on WFIU-FM’s “Noon Edition” on July 26. “Not to delegates, but around Milwaukee.”

When Donald Trump decided on Vance for the ticket, The New York Times reported that one of the first outbound calls Vance made was to the younger Trump to thank him for his help, according to a person with knowledge of the call. The Times also reported that during Vance’s pre-RNC speech walkthrough, Trump Jr. accompanied the U.S. senator from Ohio onstage.

As for Banks, this episode isn’t the first time he has acted as a power broker. In the Dec. 8, 2011, edition of Howey Politics Indiana, Banks was described as part of a “restive” conservative wing of the Senate Majority Caucus who began targeting female Republican incumbents. State Sen. Bev Gard was facing a challenge from Ultimate Fighting Championship veteran Chris Lytle. Gard ultimately retired, while Mike Crider defeated Lytle and John Merlau in the Senate District 28 primary in 2012.

Sources tell Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs that the restive conservatives — Sens. Banks, Scott Schneider, Carlin Yoder, Travis Holdman, Mike Delph, Mike Young and possibly John Waterman and Jean Leising — are banding together to push what would have been unheard of in the era of Senate President Pro Tem Bob Garton: primary challenges to sitting members. One source said it is a “movement” patterned after a similar move to the right in Congress that was championed by U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint of South Carolina during the Tea Party movement in 2010.

Their potential targets included Sen. Connie Lawson (who was eventually elevated to secretary of state) and Sue Glick, the LaGrange Republican who authored the state’s 2022 abortion restriction law passed in a July special session that year.

“A Tea Party challenge to U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar from Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock may have only heightened the fervor for a ‘regime change,’” Howey Politics Indiana reported in December 2011. One former legislator told Howey Politics Indiana that things had “changed immeasurably” since the past two Republican waves that brought an influx of young conservatives to the Indiana Senate. The conservatives had been traveling to Tea Party and other events across the state well outside of their Senate districts. “Brian and David have their hands full,” one source said of then-House Speaker Brian Bosma and then-Senate President David Long.

That movement didn’t gain much traction. But Banks was no worse for the wear for trying. When Banks ran for Congress in 2015, Long was among a group of Northeast GOP legislators who endorsed him.

Governor

Braun, Rainwater tax plans

Indiana gubernatorial nominees have presented dueling property tax proposals, causing the race’s focus to shift toward the practicality of their relief plans. On July 26, U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, the Republican nominee for governor, unveiled his property tax plan. Braun called for Hoosiers whose homes are valued at more than $125,000 to receive a 60% homestead deduction. Under his plan, Hoosiers with homes valued below that amount would get a 60% supplemental deduction and a $48,000 standard deduction.

In addition, Braun would cap the increase in property tax bills for seniors, “low-income” Hoosiers and families with children under 18 at 2%; all other Hoosiers’ property tax bill increases would be capped at 3%.

Donald Rainwater, the Libertarian gubernatorial nominee, said in a Monday news release that his opponent’s property tax plan displays a “desire to continue the state government’s practice of giving some Hoosiers more favorable treatment than others.” Rainwater contended Braun’s plan fails to solve the “overall issue.” 

Rainwater has proposed capping property taxes at 1% of a property’s purchase price for a maximum of seven years. He says his plan would end “perpetual” property taxes. 

“Every Hoosier deserves to own their personal property without the fear of the government taking it for failure to pay taxes,” Rainwater said in the release.

Read the full story by State Affairs Statehouse reporter Jarred Meeks here.

Democrats respond to Beckwith

Over the weekend, Braun’s running mate, Micah Beckwith, posted comments on X about the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, calling its organizers “satanic” and hoping Paris would fall into a long electrical blackout. 

“Micah is proving on the campaign trail that he would use the lieutenant governor’s office as a stage for endless culture wars, including focusing on events thousands of miles away from Indiana,” Indiana Democratic Party Spokesman Sam Barloga  said in a statement. “His outsized influence in a Braun administration will turn Indiana’s executive branch into a vehicle that pushes divisive rhetoric, book bans, and an abortion ban with no exceptions, including for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. The contrast couldn’t be more clear. Jennifer McCormick and Terry Goodin will lead with a focus on childcare reform, workers’ rights, and restoring reproductive freedom to Hoosier families.”

Large donations

Jennifer McCormick (D): Local 157 PAC Fund, $10,000 (July 25).

Mike Braun (R): Joseph Pohrer III, $10,000 (July 25); Eric Preitauer, $22,000 (July 23).

Congress

Congressional District 1: Niemeyer seeks debates

Lake County Councilman Randy Niemeyer announced Monday that his campaign has formally reached out to local organizations and media outlets to help organize three debates with incumbent Congressman Frank Mrvan. These debates are proposed to take place in each county of the district, providing a comprehensive platform for voters to hear directly from both candidates before early voting begins Oct. 8. 

Niemeyer listed as NRCC ‘Young Gun’

The National Republican Congressional Committee listed Niemeyer in the 2024 “Young Guns” program. Candidates who achieve full Young Guns status have successfully collaborated with the NRCC and completed the requirements that establish a path to victory on Election Day. 

Niemeyer issued the following statement: “I am honored to be named to the NRCC Young Guns program. I am humbled by the support we have received from hardworking Hoosiers to conservative leaders across the country. There is much work to be done to flip this district and bring true leadership to Indiana’s First District. Our campaign remains focused on common-sense solutions to the issues that matter most: reducing inflation, securing our border, and keeping our neighborhoods safe. Together, we can deliver the positive change that Northwest Indiana deserves.”

Congressional District 6: Farm Bureau endorses Shreve

Indiana Farm Bureau’s federal, nonpartisan political action committee, the Indiana Farm Bureau ELECT PAC, has endorsed Jefferson Shreve. 

“At the federal level, there are many legislative decisions made each year that can impact Hoosier farmers’ bottom line and how they run their operations,” said Randy Kron, president of Indiana Farm Bureau. “The Indiana Farm Bureau ELECT PAC is happy to endorse Jefferson Shreve for Indiana’s sixth congressional district because we need elected officials who are willing to listen to and advocate for Indiana agriculture and rural communities in D.C.”  

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

July tax revenues slightly below expectations

Posted on by Brett Stover

Kansas tax collections slightly missed the mark in July, falling 1% below expectations.

The state collected $660.3 million last month, the Kansas Department of Revenue said Thursday. That’s $6.4 million less than anticipated, and total tax collections were down 3% year-over-year for July.

Corporate income tax collections — as they were for much of fiscal year 2024 — were down in July, missing the mark by 31.4% ($15.7 million) and falling 23.3% short of July 2023 collections.

In July, a spokesperson for the Kansas Department of Revenue said the 2022 SALT Parity Act, which affects corporate income tax collections, has made those estimates “slightly harder to predict, since the law is still fairly new.”

Individual income tax collections exceeded expectations by 2.8%, though they were down 1.7% from last July. Combined sales and compensating use tax revenues also came in 1.4% higher than anticipated.

The revenue department reported last month that Kansas fell just short of its roughly $10.18 billion revenue projection for fiscal year 2024 by just over $43 million, or less than half a percent.

Brett Stover is a Statehouse reporter at State Affairs Pro Kansas/Hawver’s Capitol Report. Reach him at [email protected] or on X @BrettStoverKS.

Wake Up Call for Thursday, August 1, 2024

Posted on by Yellow Sheet Report Staff
Leach leading in LD17 Republican Senate primary race Arizona Capitol Times Former lawmaker Vince Leach has taken a slight lead in the Legislative District 17 Republican Senate primary, where he hopes to unseat incumbent Justine Wadsack. Incumbent leads Dem primary in LD23 Arizona Capitol Times Incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval leads the Democratic Legislative District 23 primary race with just under 49% of votes after Tuesday’s early results from the Secretary of State’s office at about 8:45 p.m. Matias Rosales, a city councilman in San Luis, has gained about 35% of votes. Incumbent and running mate lead LD14 GOP House primary Arizona Capitol Times A Republican House candidate in Legislative District 14 whose husband and brother-in-law were recently charged with misdemeanors after a scuffle at a local GOP meeting trails in the district’s House race after Tuesday’s preliminary voting results. Mayes weighs in on abortion, election ballot measures Capitol Media Services Attorney General Kris Mayes is weighing in against Republican lawmakers over how they are seeking to describe two ballot measures to voters. Tribe considers blocking trucks hauling uranium Associated Press The Navajo Nation planned on July 30 to test a tribal law that bans uranium from being transported on its land by ordering tribal police to stop trucks carrying the mineral and return to the mine where it was extracted in northern Arizona. Critic of Arizona’s elections operations unseats incumbent election official in GOP primary Associated Press A critic of Arizona’s voting operations has unseated the Maricopa County recorder in a Republican primary. Elsewhere, races were undecided with thousands of ballots left to be counted statewide. Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign in Arizona next week ABC15 Vice President Kamala Harris is set to campaign in Arizona next week as she tours battleground states ahead of the November election. Same APS discrimination against solar customers Arizona Capitol Times Arizona Public Service likes to tout itself as somehow new and different. It is not the APS we remember involved in scandals at the Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) or opposing renewable energy like with Proposition 127. They have new leadership and clean energy goals now.  Stephen Richer loses — and shows everyone what election integrity looks like Arizona Republic One of the surprises of election night — to me, at least — was the defeat of Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer. Kari Lake wins, but alarm bells should be ringing wildly at GOP headquarters Arizona Republic It wasn’t a great night in Arizona for Donald Trump. To no one’s surprise, Kari Lake won her U.S. Senate primary, but she isn’t posting anywhere near the numbers she needed to show she’s a contender in November.

Why Trump is telling Christians they need to vote ‘just this time’

Posted on by Brian A. Howey

INDIANAPOLIS — On the face of it, Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump continues to say bizarre things at his rallies, but his intent is right there for all to see.

Trump said at The Believers’ Summit on July 26 in Florida: “Christians, get out and vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore, you know what? Four more years, it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine, you won’t have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians.”

Asked to clarify Trump’s intent, campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement: “President Trump was talking about uniting this country and bringing prosperity to every American, as opposed to the divisive political environment that has sowed so much division and even resulted in an assassination attempt.”

Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Monday urged Trump to reframe that notion. Instead, he doubled down: “I said, ‘Vote for me; you’re not going to have to do it ever again.’ It’s true.”

“You meant you [they] won’t have to vote for you because you’ll have four years in office,” Ingraham pressed.

“I’m saying, ‘Go out; you must vote,’” Trump replied. “I said to the Christians in the room … ‘You have to vote on Nov. 5. After that, you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care because we’re going to fix it. The country will be fixed. … We won’t even need your vote anymore because, frankly, we will have such love.’”

For those who see Trump as an aspiring autocrat, the concern is that if he returns to the White House next January, he will ignore the constitutional term limits that came with the 22nd Amendment.

Section 1 reads: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

Trump has often praised autocratic leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, both of whom rewrote their constitutions to extend their power. Xi is now “president for life.”

In 2018, President Trump reacted at a closed-door fundraiser in Florida, saying, “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday.”

Such rhetoric sends chills down the spines of Americans who value democracy because Trump has acted like an aspiring autocrat repeatedly. He says routinely that elections have been “rigged” and “stolen” with virtually no evidence to back up those assertions. Jan. 6, 2021, is Exhibit A, when he sent a mob of supporters to the U.S. Capitol in an assault aimed at disrupting the decertification process. The attack wounded more than 140 cops and prompted over 1,000 federal criminal charges.

He has since called for the “termination” of the U.S. Constitution and said on Fox News he would only be a “dictator … on day one.” He has threatened to execute Gen. Mark Milley, the former Joint Chiefs of Staff chair, and hold “televised military tribunals” for political opponents ranging from Liz Cheney to former Vice President Mike Pence.

A grinning Republican New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said on ABC’s “This Week”: “I think he’s just trying to make the point that this stuff can be fixed. We want everybody to vote in all elections. But I think he was just trying to make a hyperbolic point that — that it can be fixed as long as he gets back into office and all that. But, you know, classic Trump right there.”

Yep, classic Trump, uttering what we call the quiet parts out loud.

U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., said on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I think he’s obviously making a joke about how bad things had been under Joe Biden and how good they’ll be if we send President Trump back to the White House so we can turn the country around.” 

That goes beyond joking when taken into context.

U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., said on X that “whether this was a joke or not, talking about being President for life like Xi Jinping is the most un-American sentiment expressed by an American President. George Washington would roll over in his grave.”

In 2019 at a Republican congressional conference, Trump said of Xi: “He said, ‘But I am not king; I am president.’ I said, ‘No, you’re president for life, and therefore you’re king.’” 

Trump is also saying at rallies something completely antithetical for a presidential nominee. He is repeatedly telling supporters he doesn’t need their votes.

“My instruction: We don’t need the votes; I have so many votes,” Trump said on “Fox & Friends” on July 25.

The day after his June presidential debate with Biden, Trump said at a Virginia rally: “We don’t need votes.” A week earlier, he told another GOP conference: “I tell my people, ‘I don’t need any votes. We don’t need the votes.’”

And in Detroit earlier this summer, Trump said, “Listen, we don’t need votes. We don’t need votes. We have to stop — focus, don’t worry about votes.”

What is going on here?

Those remarks appear to be part of a planned Trump campaign assault on the nation’s patchwork of local and state election certification. That could lurch America into a constitutional crisis between the November election and the January 2025 inauguration if several counties refuse to certify results, thus holding up entire states.

The goal here would be to discredit the election by blowing certification deadlines, thus throwing the stalled process to the U.S. House to decide what is called a “contingent election.” That has occurred three times, in 1801, 1825 and 1837.

“Certification is kind of a new Wild West of election work,” Stephanie Jackson Ali, the policy director for voting rights group New Georgia Project, told CNN. “If you can hold up certification, then it really brings into question, can the state certify as a whole? And that means, can we send our delegates for president?”

Republicans on Washoe County’s Board of Commissioners in Nevada refused to certify local election results, as did Republicans on a board of canvassers in Delta County, Michigan, CNN reported.

The Associated Press reported in June: “The past four years have been filled with battles over all sorts of election arcana, including one that had long been regarded as an administrative afterthought — little-known state and local boards certifying the results. With the presidential election looming in November, attorneys are gearing up for yet more fights over election certification, especially in the swing states where the victory margins are expected to be tight. Even if those efforts ultimately fail, election officials worry they’ll become a vehicle for promoting bogus election claims.”

We should never forget the images of the U.S. Capitol under assault in an attempted coup d’état in the face of clear popular vote and Electoral College results.

The sequel is being planned and staged right before our eyes and ears, right now.

Brian A. Howey is senior writer and columnist for Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs. Find Howey on Facebook and X @hwypol.

Five things to watch in Thursday’s primaries in Tennessee

Posted on by Andy Sher

After months of stump speeches, thousands of door knocks and millions of dollars spent on puffery, mail, digital ads and messaging, Tennessee’s 2024 primary election staggers to a close Thursday as state voters head to the polls.

Here are five things to watch:

1. Voucher referendum?

In many respects, this is the school choice election primary for Republican legislative candidates. It officially became so in the spring when frustrated Republican Gov. Bill Lee, stymied yet again by some Republicans’ resistance to passing a statewide school choice bill, announced he was endorsing three candidates running in open seats.

One is Jason Emert, a Maryville attorney and businessman who made previous unsuccessful bids for Congress and the state House in Knoxville, in state House District 20 seat in Blount County. Emert faces Tom Stinnett, a Blount County commissioner and retired Maryville city schools teacher and popular football coach as well as Nick Bright, the commission’s vice chair. The seat is now is being vacated by Republican Bryan Richey, a Florida transplant. Richey technically is running in Senate District 2 but he basically abandoned all hope after angering the voucher and school choice crowd by refusing to vote in favor of this year’s voucher bill.

Lee also gave his blessing to Aron Maberry, a pro-voucher pastor running in the open House District 68 primary being vacated by retiring Rep. Curtis Johnson in Montgomery County. Lee also endorsed Lee Reeves, an attorney and investor from Franklin running for the House District 65 seat in Williamson County being vacated by moderate Republican Sam Whitson of Franklin. Also in the GOP mix are Williamson County Commissioner Chair Brian Beathard, a Whitson ally, and firebrand Michelle Foreman, a registered nurse and former state GOP executive committee member who ran unsuccessfully two years ago for a Nashville seat won by Democrat Caleb Hemmer.

Lee has also traveled the state to support incumbents who back his voucher position, including Reps. Chris Todd of Jackson, Rusty Grills of Newbern, Scott Cepicky of Culeoka, and John Ragan of Oak Ridge.

2. Outside money

Multiple deep-pocketed voucher and other school choice groups have jumped into contests, often following Lee’s cues. The School Freedom Fund, which is tied to the national Club for Growth, boasted it would spend $3.6 million. It was about $500,000 short of that goal as of the final disclosures before the election. 

The group has also waded into state Senate contests, attacking voucher skeptic Bryan Richey in his bid for the open Senate District 2 seat and hammering longtime Sen. Frank Niceley of Strawberry Plains in District 8 over his opposition to vouchers. The group is backing Niceley challenger Jessie Seal, who refused to tell The Tennessee Journal  publicly where he stood on vouchers or other school choice avenue.

A screenshot of an ad attacking Sen. Frank Niceley. (Credit: Club for Growth)

The Tennessee Lookout reported Wednesday that school choice groups have dumped $4.5 million and counting into contests, occasionally at cross-purposes with each another.

3. Federal races

Four years ago, Democrats’ hope of having at least a semi-viable candidate crashed and burned after Memphis environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw, who spent virtually nothing in the primary, unexpectedly won the party’s nomination after the anointed favorite was preoccupied with accumulating cash for the general election.

This year, state Rep. Gloria Johnson — she of “Tennessee Three” fame — has taken no chances. Bradshaw’s again on the ballot — and with a low budget has traveled across the state. Two other candidates are also running. Will Johnson’s effort make any difference in securing the nomination? Regardless, the winner goes up against well-funded incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate general election contest since 1990.

Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, speaks during a House floor session on Feb. 12, 2024. (Erik Schelzig)

The only real primary battle for U.S. House seats pits freshman Rep. Andy Ogles of Culleoka against Nashville Councilwoman Courtney Johnston, who has lapped the incumbent on the fundraising front and benefited from heavy independent expenditures by a group called Conservatives with Character. Ogles, a former director of the state chapter of Americans for Prosperity, is counting on the group for outside ads and on-the-street campaigning. 

4. The power of incumbency

At least three Republican members in the Senate — Jon Lundberg of Bristol, Ferrell Haile of Gallatin and Frank Niceley of Strawberry Plains — are hoping to avoid becoming the state’s first upper chamber GOP member in 10 years to be primaried. 

The most recent such unseatings occurred in 2014, when Knoxville physician Richard Briggs defeated Sen. Stacey Campfield and accountant Kerry Roberts of Springfield beat Sen. Jim Summerville. Before that, then-Rep. Doug Overbey toppled Sen. Raymond Finney in 2008. The latter had done the same four years earlier to his predecessor, Republican Sen. Bill Clabough, who had voted for an income tax and against a proposed constitutional amendment to remove protections for abortions.

Metro Nashville Council member Courtney Johnston. (Credit: Screengrab from Johnston ad)

There is a more recent example of a Senate Democrat losing a primary challenge. In 2018, Katrina Robinson ousted Sen. Reginald Tate, who had long outraged members of his party because of his cozy relationship with the chamber’s Republican leadership.

The last time a sitting member of the Tennessee congressional delegation lost a primary was when freshman U.S. Rep. David Davis of Johnson City lost to Phil Roe in 2008. Before that, it had been half a century since a member lost a primary. In 2014, freshman U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais faced a challenge from then-State Sen. Jim Tracy following revelations that the incumbent had once urged a mistress to get an abortion and sat outside his former wife’s bedroom dry-firing a gun into his mouth. DesJarlais still won by 38 votes.

5. Who’s up?

Here is who is running in open seats (retiring incumbents listed in parenthesis):

  • Senate District 2 (Sen. Art Swann): Republican Rep. Bryan Richey and longtime Blount County clerk of courts and hotelier John Pullias.
  • House District 4 (Rep. John Hoslclaw): Republican tomato farmer Renea Jones of Unicoi County and longtime Elizabethton Mayor Curt Alexander.
  • House District 12 (Rep. Dale Carr): Republican Sevier County Commissioner Fred Atchley, conservative activist Larry Linton and Milligan University student Christian Brown.
  • House 20 (Rep. Bryan Richey): Republican Blount County Commissioners Nick Bright and Tom Stinnett and former congressional candidate Jason Emert.
  • House District 60 (Rep. Darren Jernigan): Democratic gun control advocate Shaundelle Brooks, financial consultant Tyler Brasher and disabled veteran John Parrish. The Republican contest features Chad Bobo, a former aide to House Speaker Cameron Sexton, and Christopher Huff.
  • House District 65 (Rep. Sam Whitson): Republican attorney Lee Reeves, Williamson County Commission Chair Brian Beathard and attorney Michelle Foreman.
  • House District 68 (Rep. Curtis Johnson): Republican pastor Aron Maberry, travel planner Carol Duffin, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Smith, and retired Army aviator Greg Gilman.
  • House District 96 (Dwayne Thompson): Democrats Gabby Salinas, Eric Dunn, Telisa Franklin, Orrden Williams Jr. and David Winston.

A number of incumbents face challenges in their primaries as well:

  • Senate District 4: Republican Sen. Jon Lundberg of Bristol versus pharmacist Bobby Harshbarger, the son of U.S. Rep. Diana Harshbarger.
  • Senate District 6: Republican Sen. Becky Massey of Knoxville versus Monica Irvine, who runs the Etiquette Factory.
  • Senate District 8: Republican Sen. Frank Niceley of Strawberry Plains against New Tazewell businessman Jessie Seal.
  • Senate District 10: Republican Sen. Todd Gargenhire versus former Red Bank city commissioner Ed LeCompte.
  • Senate District 12: Republican Sen. Ken Yager of Kingston versus conservative activist Teena Hedrick 
  • Senate District 18: Republican Sen. Ferrell Haile versus conservative activist Chris Spencer. Both are from Gallatin.
  • Senate District 24: Republican Sen. John Stevens versus Charlie Cooper, a budget administrator and spokesman for the Benton County mayor’s office.
  • Senate District 30: Democratic Sen. Sara Kyle versus Erika Stotts Pearson of Memphis.
  • House District 13: Republican Rep. Robert Stevens of Smyrna versus Murfreesboro City Council member Jami Averwater.
  • House District 15: Democratic Rep. Sam McKenzie versus Knox County Commissioner Dasha Lundy.
  • House District 24: Republican Rep. Kevin Raper of Cleveland versus Troy Weathers in a repeat of their 2022 race.
  • House District 27: Republican Rep. Patsy Hazlewood versus businesswoman Michele Reneau.
  • House District 28: Democratic Rep. Yusuf Hakeem versus Chattanooga City Council member Demetrus Coonrod.
  • House District 31: Republican Rep. Ron Travis versus Richard W. Smith.
  • House District 33: Republican Rep. John Ragan of Oak Ridge versus former Clinton police chief Rick Scarbrough. 
  • House District 34: Republican Rep. Tim Rudd versus public relations consultant Tucker Marcum.
  • House District 43: Republican Rep. Paul Sherrell of Sparta versus businessman and White County Commissioner Robert McCormick.
  • House District 56: Democratic Rep. Bob Freeman versus Vanderbilt University student Nick Forster-Benson.
  • House District 64: Republican Rep. Scott Cepicky versus Maury County Commissioner Ray Jeter.
  • House District 69: Republican Rep. Jody Barrett versus former Hickman County Commissioner Ronny George.
  • House District 73: Republican Rep. Chris Todd versus former Madison County Mayor Jimmy Harris.
  • House District 77: Republican Rep. Rusty Grills versus Dyer County Commissioner Bubba Cobb.
  • House District 78: Republican Rep. Mary Littleton versus teacher Justin Spurlock.
  • House District 80: Democratic Rep. Johnny Shaw versus Shelia Godwin and Jonathan Joy.
  • House District 96: Democratic Rep. Justin Pearson versus David Page.
  • House District 97: Republican Rep. John Gillespie versus cleaning business owner Christina Oppenhuizen.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to correct that Richard Briggs and Kerry Roberts were the most recent candidates to defeat Senate incumbents in Republican primaries in 2014.

Closeout day brings slower Indiana growth

Posted on by Larry DeBoer

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Closeout day in the Indiana Statehouse is near and dear to the number crunchers among us. That’s the day the state comptroller and the State Budget Agency tell us about revenues, expenditures and balances for the just-ended fiscal year. The 2024 closeout came on Tuesday, July 23, about a week later than usual because of some convention happening in Milwaukee. You can find the closeout documents on the Budget Agency’s website.

In fiscal 2024, revenues were 1.4% higher than in 2023. That’s much slower growth than the 9.3% annual average from the past three years. That rapid growth was due to federal pandemic aid to taxpayers and governments, and that’s over. 

Individual income tax revenue grew 6.9%, which makes sense in a growing economy. 

But sales tax revenues fell 0.9%, which doesn’t make so much sense with consumers spending more and inflation at 3%. One reason: The closeout reports general fund sales tax revenue, and we’ve been moving sales taxes on gasoline from the general fund to highway maintenance funds. Another reason: In Indiana most goods are sales taxable; most services are not. Consumers switched their spending from services to goods during the pandemic, and now they’re switching back. They’re spending more on untaxed services.

Corporate income tax revenue fell by 21.6% in 2024. Corporate taxes are especially unstable, which is just a way of saying, “Who knows why?” Indiana manufacturing employment has been falling since mid-2022, though, and Indiana is a manufacturing state. Perhaps the corporations doing business here have been less successful lately. The decline in corporate taxes was more than offset by the rise in interest earnings on state balances. They nearly doubled as a result of higher interest rates.

Another way to look at revenues is in comparison to what we thought we’d get when the 2024 budget was passed. The current two-year spending plan was passed in the 2023 session of the General Assembly, based on a forecast of revenues for 2024 and 2025.  Back then we thought we’d raise $21.9 billion in 2024. According to the closeout, we actually got $21.5 billion. Revenues fell short by $369 million. 

We knew that was coming. Revenue forecasts are revised every December, and seven months ago expected revenues for 2024 were cut by $355 million. The closeout showed that the December forecast was off by only one-tenth of 1%. There were no new shortfalls in the closeout. 

The worst news last December, though, was a $1 billion increase in estimated Medicaid spending. Medicaid is an entitlement program, so spending depends on how many people qualify for care and how much that care costs. Future service demand and costs have to be estimated, and the original budget estimates were too low. 

That problem shows up in a closeout document called “General Fund Combined Statement of Estimated Unappropriated Reserve.” Or, more concisely, state balances. Balances are money that has been collected in taxes but are not scheduled to be spent. They are invested to earn interest revenue.

About halfway down the document is a category called “Augmentations.” That’s spending not anticipated when the budget was passed. The footnote lists “Estimated Medicaid shortfall” at $255 million for 2024 and $458 million for 2025. That’s $713 million in total, which is less than $1 billion but still a big hit on the budget. The state is looking for ways to save money while continuing to provide needed care.   

The legislature passed a spending plan for 2024, but revenues fell short and costs were unexpectedly high. That could be a big problem, except the state began the fiscal year with $2.9 billion in balances. One reason to keep balances is to maintain budgeted spending in the face of forecast errors. Total balances at the end of fiscal 2024 were down to $2.55 billion. That’s still 11.6% of the budget, in the middle of what’s sometimes called the “prudent range” of 10% to 12.5%.

Balances are expected to fall again in 2025, to $2.3 billion, which is 10.6% of the budget. Still prudent but a little closer to that lower limit. That will be on the minds of legislators when they debate the 2026-27 budget starting in January.

Larry Deboer is a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University.

New Georgia laws affecting this year’s back-to-school season

Posted on by Nava Rawls

It’s back-to-school season in the Peach State, and things are bound to look somewhat different both inside and outside the classroom.

As you grapple with school supply shopping, figure out bus routes and try to get back into the routine of school, it’s also worth taking a look at the new education laws that went into effect this summer. 

State Affairs has compiled a rundown of recent legislation that could mean major changes for students, parents and educators.

Inside the classroom

Senate Bill 395 requires public schools to make a “reasonable effort” to stock an opioid antidote to treat overdoses related to substances such as fentanyl. This act was passed following an incident in May at Dunwoody High School, where a student suffered acute fentanyl intoxication and later died.

Fentanyl-related deaths have become a major issue across Georgia, with fentanyl-involved overdose deaths increasing by 800% among adolescents in 2021, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

To further invest in students’ health, House Bill 874 requires Georgia public schools to carry an automatic external defibrillator to use in cases of cardiac arrest.

Georgia’s recent legislation will also bring major changes for school employees.

Continue reading “New Georgia laws affecting this year’s back-to-school season”

A new presidential choice

Posted on by Jack Colwell

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — All those dissatisfied voters complaining about a terrible presidential choice between two old guys — one too frail, the other too unhinged, both with high disapproval ratings — now have a different choice.

Actually, in deciding the direction of the country, it’s the same choice.

Former President Donald Trump is now the one with the age issue as he rambles on in disjointed speeches, repeating jokes about cannibalism and misstating statistics and history. He has become the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history. He would be 82 by the end of his term if he wins in November.

But there is no mystery about the course Trump would follow on issues at home and abroad.

President Joe Biden, now 81, no longer seeks reelection after his shocking performance in the June 27 debate, when he couldn’t complete sentences or thoughts and convinced many voters that he couldn’t complete another term. He is being replaced as the presidential nominee by Vice President Kamala Harris, younger and more articulate. She is 59, finally a candidate where age is no factor.

But there is no mystery about the course Harris would follow on issues at home and abroad. It’s the same course Biden would take.

So if each side is adamant about following its long-proclaimed course and rejecting what the other side would do, what’s the big deal about Harris replacing Biden?

It’s a big deal because this election is so consequential, with voters deciding between sharp differences on abortion, immigration and taxation at home and what to do in the world on Ukraine, NATO and climate change. A lot more as well.

And the change in nominees could have an effect with voters, maybe not much, but not much is needed to be decisive in a close vote in key states.

Biden, never recovering politically from that disastrous debate, appeared to be headed for defeat, with Trump returning to the White House, perhaps with Republican control of both the Senate and the House. Although Biden wanted to take on and defeat Trump, as he did before, he realized the dire situation and stepped aside, endorsing Harris.

Harris has had an immediate effect, energizing many Democrats who had grown despondent. She turned fundraising from dismal to robust and sparked voter registration.

However, that also could increase efforts of a Trump campaign that had grown overconfident — didn’t bother to pick a vice presidential nominee from a swing state or one fully vetted. 

Also, Trump won’t lose his MAGA base no matter what. The election will be close. Trump still appears to hold at least a slight advantage in the Electoral College, where the race is decided.

The biggest effect could be with those disgruntled voters who had been so displeased with the Trump vs. Biden choice, the old choice once again. Because of their dislike for both of those candidates, those voters have been described as “double haters,” so dissatisfied that they were threatening not to vote or to throw away their votes to some third-party candidate.

Will some of them now decide to vote for the replacement for one of the “old guys,” or will Harris also be regarded as unworthy because of something not involving the crucial issues: her gender, her racial diversity or her laugh?

Before Biden bowed out, a lot of those “double haters” were unwilling to look beyond the candidates and make a choice based on the issues, on the direction of the country.

With a new choice of candidates, will those dissatisfied voters now look more at the significant issues and take a stand on the direction for this nation’s future? And if so, which direction will most of them choose?

The choice of candidates has changed. In determining the direction of the country, it’s the same choice.

Jack Colwell has covered Indiana politics for over five decades for the South Bend Tribune. Email him at [email protected].

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